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Throwcomputer

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This is going to be interesting to see how it plays out. On one hand Tesla has lofty goals of reaching 20 million vehicles per year. On the other hand they have lofty goals of an enormous fleet of "Robotaxis" that will displace the need for individual vehicle ownership. These two goals play against each other in a rather dynamic way.
and one of those goals clashes against most peoples desires to own their own vehicle. I live in a city. Taxi's have been around forever. Taxi's did not take over the world just the same as Segway thought they would. Remember when there was a press conference to announce some world changing mode of transportation that everyone was going to love! Same thing for Tesla Robotaxis. We've got half a century at minimum before peoples motivations may start to shift towards that trend. I don't think its a bad goal for Tesla or Musk to have.. I just think that hubris about this specific goal clashes against the reality of common desires of people in the world. You can have the best intentions and think its going to change the world, but if the world don't want it, it ain't happening.

And I get it, the average Tesla fanboy hates driving their own cars and just wants to be shuffled around without having to do anything themselves. But that is not a large enough percentage of the population.
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GnarlyDudeLive

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and one of those goals clashes against most peoples desires to own their own vehicle. I live in a city. Taxi's have been around forever. Taxi's did not take over the world just the same as Segway thought they would. Remember when there was a press conference to announce some world changing mode of transportation that everyone was going to love! Same thing for Tesla Robotaxis. We've got half a century at minimum before peoples motivations may start to shift towards that trend. I don't think its a bad goal for Tesla or Musk to have.. I just think that hubris about this specific goal clashes against the reality of common desires of people in the world. You can have the best intentions and think its going to change the world, but if the world don't want it, it ain't happening.
:) That is why I mentioned it will be interesting to see how it plays out. Some major shifts do happen faster than anticipated (Cable TV, Physical Media Rental, EV adoption, Smart Phones, Broad band).
 

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:) That is why I mentioned it will be interesting to see how it plays out. Some major shifts do happen faster than anticipated (Cable TV, Physical Media Rental, EV adoption, Smart Phones, Broad band).
Yeah. I do think it will happen, but I think they need to accept that not everyone wants that and continue to sell vehicles to individuals as long as the demand is there. If they force the transition by refusing to sell except to businesses running robotaxi fleets then they will handicap themselves by forcing a large percentage of their customer base to other manufacturers.
 

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and one of those goals clashes against most peoples desires to own their own vehicle. I live in a city. Taxi's have been around forever. Taxi's did not take over the world just the same as Segway thought they would. Remember when there was a press conference to announce some world changing mode of transportation that everyone was going to love! Same thing for Tesla Robotaxis. We've got half a century at minimum before peoples motivations may start to shift towards that trend. I don't think its a bad goal for Tesla or Musk to have.. I just think that hubris about this specific goal clashes against the reality of common desires of people in the world. You can have the best intentions and think its going to change the world, but if the world don't want it, it ain't happening.

And I get it, the average Tesla fanboy hates driving their own cars and just wants to be shuffled around without having to do anything themselves. But that is not a large enough percentage of the population.
I agree with you MOST people will want their own vehicle. But what about when you go on vacation, and you fly to a destination. Will you want a rental car or a reasonably priced clean robotaxi take you everywhere you want to go? My thought is that the rental car companies are already starting to see their future is doomed.
 

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Yeah. I do think it will happen, but I think they need to accept that not everyone wants that and continue to sell vehicles to individuals as long as the demand is there. If they force the transition by refusing to sell except to businesses running robotaxi fleets then they will handicap themselves by forcing a large percentage of their customer base to other manufacturers.
Elon in the shareholder meeting video at ~48m:28s or so talks on the robotaxi a bit. At ~49m:45s after discussing on the topic for a couple mins just sort of trails off in silence. I think he just didn't feel comfortable after talking a bit about it because of the duality of the goals I mentioned and just sort of trailed off in self thought and just went straight to Optimus.

 


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Elon in the shareholder meeting video at ~48m:28s or so talks on the robotaxi a bit. At ~49m:45s after discussing on the topic for a couple mins just sort of trails off in silence. I think he just didn't feel comfortable after talking a bit about it because of the duality of the goals I mentioned and just sort of trailed off in self thought and just went straight to Optimus.

I think he's generally frustrated with the fact that what he thinks the world should adopt and love, most people just don't care about. IE. Robotaxis and Optimus. He's clashing against reality that he can't control everyone's desires and can't seem to accept it. He's made many comments over the past year or so about as much. Practically every time he mentions optimus he opines how he just can't understand why the media and public reception of it isn't clamoring for it like he thought.
 

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This is going to be interesting to see how it plays out. On one hand Tesla has lofty goals of reaching 20 million vehicles per year. On the other hand they have lofty goals of an enormous fleet of "Robotaxis" that will displace the need for individual vehicle ownership. These two goals play against each other in a rather dynamic way.
Robotaxi isn’t going to go many places I want to go. It’s not going to be suitable to take camping for 3 days. I’m not going to be able to call a Robotaxi and put a bike rack or a tent on it. I likely won’t be pulling a small camper trailer or a boat with Robotaxi. My electrician isn’t loading his tools into a robotaxi every morning.

Lots of people are simply going to want their own vehicle. We are far enough out of town I doubt we’d get a Robotaxi for our second vehicle. Though I suppose if we could schedule it to arrive 10 minutes before we need to go to work, we might. Lots of people closer into town I could see having 1 fewer car. For a fair chunk of people, a down payment on a car is a big deal.
 

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Robotaxi isn’t going to go many places I want to go. It’s not going to be suitable to take camping for 3 days. I’m not going to be able to call a Robotaxi and put a bike rack or a tent on it. I likely won’t be pulling a small camper trailer or a boat with Robotaxi. My electrician isn’t loading his tools into a robotaxi every morning.

Lots of people are simply going to want their own vehicle. We are far enough out of town I doubt we’d get a Robotaxi for our second vehicle. Though I suppose if we could schedule it to arrive 10 minutes before we need to go to work, we might. Lots of people closer into town I could see having 1 fewer car. For a fair chunk of people, a down payment on a car is a big deal.
There are some very cool possibilities for small labor business and a RoboCT. Think of say a single owner 4 man business that lays floor tile as an example. The owner realizes they need more tile or grout for a job because of some circumstance. You could pull your worker off of a job and send them and get less work completed *or* you could just send the RoboCT to have it pick up the material and deliver it. I have a few friends that this is a very common problem. Tile is not light and if they job takes multiple loads, the CT can be off doing multiple pickup and deliveries of materials. It's one example but if you think on it a bit, the possibilities are enormous just for this one segment.

In 20 years, us vehicle owners could be looked down upon by the new normal social acceptance. Like we are some sort of terrible person for not sharing. Or perhaps our grandchildren are in shock and awe that we actually drove a vehicle ourselves manually and amazed that we did such dangerous things. LOL
 
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Ogre

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There are some very cool possibilities for small labor business and a RoboCT. Think of say a single owner 4 man business that lays floor tile as an example. The owner realizes they need more tile or grout for a job because of some circumstance. You could pull your worker off of a job and send them and get less work completed *or* you could just send the RoboCT to have it pick up the material and deliver it. I have a few friends that this is a very common problem. Tile is not light and if they job takes multiple loads, the CT can be off doing multiple pickup and deliveries of materials. It's one example but if you think on it a bit, the possibilities are enormous just for this one segment.

In 20 years, us vehicle owners could be looked down upon by the new normal social acceptance. Like we are some sort of terrible person for not sharing. Or perhaps our grandchildren are in shock and awe that we actually drove a vehicle ourselves manually and amazed that we did such dangerous things. LOL
I think there will be a fair number of people who never get their drivers license. When I was a teenager, everyone got their license when they turned 16-18. Now it’s less common. If Robotaxi can drive kids around, I suspect parents will give their kids Robotaxi accounts before they are 16 even.

Just need to figure out how to kick your daughter’s boyfriend out when things get inappropriate (or granddaughter LOL). Maybe a no-parking Robotaxi…

Totally agree on the idea of trucks driving themselves to pick up supplies, but there will be a weird transition time where you won’t be able to get your empty truck loaded.
 

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Model X uses 15 year old battery designs. The pack is 20x more complex than the pack in the Cybertruck which makes it vastly more difficult to create. I has the gull wing doors which were extremely complex. Elon Musk called it “the most complex passenger car ever.” He is not repeating the mistakes they made designing the Model X.
Their battery design is a little better...

...but I am still hoping Tesla figures out how to make enough batteries so they can make a Model X with castings and bring the price back down. If it had it's original price today, even without the crazy performance Plaid, it would sell like hotcakes.

And I admit it's not the car for most people. Just, there's alot of demand out there for a mature people carrier.

-Crissa
 


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I think there will be a fair number of people who never get their drivers license. When I was a teenager, everyone got their license when they turned 16-18. Now it’s less common. If Robotaxi can drive kids around, I suspect parents will give their kids Robotaxi accounts before they are 16 even.

Just need to figure out how to kick your daughter’s boyfriend out when things get inappropriate (or granddaughter LOL). Maybe a no-parking Robotaxi…

Totally agree on the idea of trucks driving themselves to pick up supplies, but there will be a weird transition time where you won’t be able to get your empty truck loaded.
There will also be a weird problem to overcome with that. No store is going to load your robotruck for you. So who's going to get the material into your truck if you don't send a person along with it to pick up those materials? And if you respond optimus, then you are not being honest with the likelihood of both of those goals being achieved and widely adopted in the near term.
 

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Their battery design is a little better...

...but I am still hoping Tesla figures out how to make enough batteries so they can make a Model X with castings and bring the price back down. If it had it's original price today, even without the crazy performance Plaid, it would sell like hotcakes.

And I admit it's not the car for most people. Just, there's alot of demand out there for a mature people carrier.

-Crissa
if the Model X were back at the early prices (98k to 105k) I might consider that since I am a one of those mature people.....😂
 
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CT will be my first tesla. With all this talk about average car price and where tesla fits into the hierarchy, those who already own one, what kind of reaction do you get from the GP? I always viewed teslas as nondescript. I didn't know some perceived you as snobs.

 

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There will also be a weird problem to overcome with that. No store is going to load your robotruck for you. So who's going to get the material into your truck if you don't send a person along with it to pick up those materials? And if you respond optimus, then you are not being honest with the likelihood of both of those goals being achieved and widely adopted in the near term.
There are construction places which will load a vehicle. Not all of them, but I’ve been to one where you call the order in and they load your truck.

But more likely would be the reverse. You call the order in, their Cybertruck rolls out to your site, you are responsible for unloading it, then it returns to their home base. Delivery services like that usually cost $50-80 and have to be scheduled. If they don’t have to have a driver, seems like they could get these deliveries out in an hour or less.
 
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Most of the commercial construction supply houses that cater to pros only are a clusterfuck. Yes, they will load it for you, but there are lines and congestion and even humans have a hard time navigating in and out of those places. This would only work if they dedicate a robo line. Highly unlikely in our lifetime.
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