Production Start Date?!?

[Jhodgesatmb]

I forgot the inverters. Yes, Sandy Munro has mentioned how much Tesla tries to keep things identical across the S, X, 3, and Y fleet, but that doesn’t mean it will apply to the CT nor that it can all be used out of the box. For example, the inverters, if Tesla is going to support higher-power supercharging they will probably need to design a new inverter. Computers? One of the reasons for delay is the new HW 4 system and so some of the software can be rebuilt but the CT has a new UI as well as new features for towing and off-road use that require new software and integration. New higher-resolution cameras, so FSD might have to go through some changes. I am not going to walk through it all but am just saying that having a technology and even many lines that can reuse parts doesn’t mean they are ready to go when the gigs press and folding machines arrive.

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[Mini2nut]

We all need to be realistic. A pickup truck with a 3mm thick stainless exoskeleton and a clean sheet of paper design has never been attempted before in the automotive industry. It‘s going to take time to get this truck into production.

Elon stated Cybertruck production would start in 2023. Tesla could manufacture one Cybertruck on December 31st and he would be a man of his word.

My gut feeling says SOP will be Q4 of 2023. I think Cybertruck production for 2023 will be between 1 - 5,000 units.

 

[charliemagpie]

..............

Elon stated Cybertruck production would start in 2023. Tesla could manufacture one Cybertruck on December 31st and he would be a man of his word.

............

If Elon produced 1 truck in 2023 we would call him Mary !

 

[Ogre]

If Elon produced 1 truck in 2023 we would call him Mary !

I think Rivian has GM beat. It’s 4 months after the first 2 Rivian R1S “deliveries” and Rivian has yet to ship a third.

By Rivian’s definition, Tesla should have handed the keys to the Cybertruck prototypes to Musk and said Cybertruck deliveries started on-time.

"We made our first R1S deliveries last week from our factory in Normal, IL to RJ and our CFO Claire."

 

[happy intruder]

In a general way you are right. They have facilities for plastics, seats, structural battery packs, drivetrain, and suspension, but they are purposed for Model Y designs and production. They would have to redesign them for the CT and then build lines to construct and assemble these CT-specific items. From that perspective they don't have 'any' of these items. I might go further and say that even though they have build suspensions for Models S,X,3, and Y they probably don't even have a finalized design for the CT suspension, let alone a manufacturing line for it. There was a recent discussion here about the CT suspension and, based on that alone, I suspect that Tesla has its hands full trying to squeeze the suspension into the available area so that it can achieve the kind of travel it wants and still have the bed space be intact. I suspect the same will go for the entire drivetrain. I am sure that they need all of this year to figure these and other things out.

Now that the building is enclosed for all sections it will be unclear when they even receive equipment that is CT specific. The last time a Gigapress was delivered it was almost missed by the quad squad; who is to say that they haven't already received an 8K-ton gigapress and had it hidden from public view during the Cyber Rodeo.

What I agree with is that they have the skills to do it. I have no doubt that they can get it done this year or early into the next if they will just stop focusing on MY production.

yea....maybe it got delivered in the middle of the night

 

[jerhenderson]

It seems odd to me that they aren't even working on the Cybertruck production line (is this really true?) What are they waiting for? Why not start getting things ready so the equipment is ready to go when 4680 production reaches enough capacity.

Either Tesla is in no rush at all the start CT production, or there's more going on behind the scenes, maybe in Fremont? Maybe in Austin?

they're waiting for the gigapress and the steel body part factory for starters. CT can't come before they're done!

 

[HaulingAss]

Maybe I am late to the party on this one...But, I was watching Ryan Shaw's video the other day. See clip. According to a suppler, the start date of production is going to be October 2nd of 2023. This could be a random date put into the spreadsheet as a placeholder, but it does support other rumors that have been going around about production starting late next year. So, according to the tracker, I was going to be getting my Christmas Eve on 2024, I guess I have to push that back another 10 months!

I wouldn't put any weight on that particular report. It could even be purposeful misinformation by Tesla haters to push peoples expectations back.

 

[Tinker71]

It is crazy to think they haven't started on the line with a couple pieces of equipment set. With industrial equipment you might typically pay 10% on order, 25% on final design, 40% to ship and 25% on final commissioning. These payments are all driven by a schedule with milestones. There are provisions for storage cost and delays in receipts. These vendors have production schedules and other clients. They want to process the orders in a orderly fashion so they don't stack. Many of these orders where probably initiated in 2020 based on performance specifications not final design or molds if you will. Tesla has probably already paid for a fair amount of this equipment whether it is on site or not.

If the space is there why wouldn't they take some of this equipment they have already paid for and set and commission what you can.

 

[SparkChaser]

It is crazy to think they haven't started on the line with a couple pieces of equipment set. With industrial equipment you might typically pay 10% on order, 25% on final design, 40% to ship and 25% on final commissioning. These payments are all driven by a schedule with milestones. There are provisions for storage cost and delays in receipts. These vendors have production schedules and other clients. They want to process the orders in a orderly fashion so they don't stack. Many of these orders where probably initiated in 2020 based on performance specifications not final design or molds if you will. Tesla has probably already paid for a fair amount of this equipment whether it is on site or not.

If the space is there why wouldn't they take some of this equipment they have already paid for and set and commission what you can.

Who says they have not? There can be crates sitting in Texas wrapped and waiting to be deployed as the manpower is available and as production smooths out on the Y.

 

[Ogre]

Posted this in the other thread, but Musk‘s confidence in Cybertruck start is increasing.

"We remain on track to reach volume production of Cybertruck next year (2023)."

That suggests production will be online sometime in 1st half of the year.

 

[electricAK]

Posted this in the other thread, but Musk‘s confidence in Cybertruck start is increasing.

"We remain on track to reach volume production of Cybertruck next year (2023)."

That suggests production will be online sometime in 1st half of the year.

Another interesting tidbit from the earnings call: Elon said they already have enough inventory of 4680 cells for this year, and the cells are not currently a limiting factor. He said they would become a limiting factor next year if Tesla cannot achieve scaled production, but he's confident they will achieve that. So, it sure sounds like things are going according to plan with 4680.

Should we be expecting to see a new gigapress installed within the next few months?

 

[KHappe]

Posted this in the other thread, but Musk‘s confidence in Cybertruck start is increasing.

"We remain on track to reach volume production of Cybertruck next year (2023)."

That suggests production will be online sometime in 1st half of the year.

I was going to make the same post from the earning call today. On they call they said, volume production of Cybertruck next year. Also in the call they said it takes 9-12 months to ramp a new line to volume production. Which means they have to start production late this year or early next year to have have volume production by the end of next year.

 

[Ogre]

I was going to make the same post from the earning call today. On they call they said, volume production of Cybertruck next year. Also in the call they said it takes 9-12 months to ramp a new line to volume production. Which means they have to start production late this year or early next year to have have volume production by the end of next year.

Yeah, that is exactly where I was going with this. Unless they are planning on ramping super fast they gotta get the first trucks out Q1 or Q2 next year

 

[Daddystired]

Maybe I am late to the party on this one...But, I was watching Ryan Shaw's video the other day. See clip. According to a suppler, the start date of production is going to be October 2nd of 2023. This could be a random date put into the spreadsheet as a placeholder, but it does support other rumors that have been going around about production starting late next year. So, according to the tracker, I was going to be getting my Christmas Eve on 2024, I guess I have to push that back another 10 months!

Just take what he says half true. I’ve been watching his YouTube videos for a year. It’s a hit and miss with him. 100% his opinions. He’s a great video editor with a excellent set up.

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