Production Start Date?!?

Ogre

Well-known member
First Name
Dennis
Joined
Jul 3, 2021
Threads
164
Messages
10,719
Reaction score
26,998
Location
Ogregon
Vehicles
Model Y
Country flag
Point taken. Sadly, there is almost nothing in the CT other than maybe the displays, motors, brakes, and battery cells that will be reusable. New seats, mirrors, lights, glass. They have adjustable suspension in the S and X but it needs to be redesigned. I am hopeful that all of this is doable when Tesla is willing to commit resources and space to do it…I just don’t think it is as simple as originally suggested.
Inverter, console, most of the computers, the overwhelming majority of the battery system, the HVAC and cooling system, the charging system, most of the software, the 12v battery system…

Huge pieces are in common between all of Teslas cars. They just plug their common components and adapt them to their new chassis.
Sponsored

 

Jhodgesatmb

Well-known member
First Name
Jack
Joined
Dec 1, 2019
Threads
63
Messages
4,914
Reaction score
7,093
Location
San Francisco Bay area
Website
www.arbor-studios.com
Vehicles
Tesla Model Y LR, Tesla Model 3 LR
Occupation
Retired AI researcher
Country flag
I forgot the inverters. Yes, Sandy Munro has mentioned how much Tesla tries to keep things identical across the S, X, 3, and Y fleet, but that doesn’t mean it will apply to the CT nor that it can all be used out of the box. For example, the inverters, if Tesla is going to support higher-power supercharging they will probably need to design a new inverter. Computers? One of the reasons for delay is the new HW 4 system and so some of the software can be rebuilt but the CT has a new UI as well as new features for towing and off-road use that require new software and integration. New higher-resolution cameras, so FSD might have to go through some changes. I am not going to walk through it all but am just saying that having a technology and even many lines that can reuse parts doesn’t mean they are ready to go when the gigs press and folding machines arrive.
 

Mini2nut

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 2, 2020
Threads
87
Messages
2,188
Reaction score
4,120
Location
CA
Vehicles
2019 Tacoma TRD Pro
Country flag
We all need to be realistic. A pickup truck with a 3mm thick stainless exoskeleton and a clean sheet of paper design has never been attempted before in the automotive industry. It‘s going to take time to get this truck into production.

Elon stated Cybertruck production would start in 2023. Tesla could manufacture one Cybertruck on December 31st and he would be a man of his word.

My gut feeling says SOP will be Q4 of 2023. I think Cybertruck production for 2023 will be between 1 - 5,000 units.

Tesla Cybertruck Production Start Date?!? 3EF48102-6C35-4379-957C-267FB97275F0
 
Last edited:

charliemagpie

Well-known member
First Name
Charlie
Joined
Jul 6, 2021
Threads
42
Messages
2,887
Reaction score
5,133
Location
Australia
Vehicles
CybrBEAST
Occupation
retired
Country flag
..............

Elon stated Cybertruck production would start in 2023. Tesla could manufacture one Cybertruck on December 31st and he would be a man of his word.

............
If Elon produced 1 truck in 2023 we would call him Mary !
 

Ogre

Well-known member
First Name
Dennis
Joined
Jul 3, 2021
Threads
164
Messages
10,719
Reaction score
26,998
Location
Ogregon
Vehicles
Model Y
Country flag
If Elon produced 1 truck in 2023 we would call him Mary !
I think Rivian has GM beat. It’s 4 months after the first 2 Rivian R1S “deliveries” and Rivian has yet to ship a third.

By Rivian’s definition, Tesla should have handed the keys to the Cybertruck prototypes to Musk and said Cybertruck deliveries started on-time. :ROFLMAO:

"We made our first R1S deliveries last week from our factory in Normal, IL to RJ and our CFO Claire."
 


happy intruder

Well-known member
First Name
O. K.
Joined
Mar 5, 2020
Threads
8
Messages
1,122
Reaction score
905
Location
Irvine
Vehicles
Model 3 Jun 2019..... Model S Jan 2020
Occupation
Retired
Country flag
In a general way you are right. They have facilities for plastics, seats, structural battery packs, drivetrain, and suspension, but they are purposed for Model Y designs and production. They would have to redesign them for the CT and then build lines to construct and assemble these CT-specific items. From that perspective they don't have 'any' of these items. I might go further and say that even though they have build suspensions for Models S,X,3, and Y they probably don't even have a finalized design for the CT suspension, let alone a manufacturing line for it. There was a recent discussion here about the CT suspension and, based on that alone, I suspect that Tesla has its hands full trying to squeeze the suspension into the available area so that it can achieve the kind of travel it wants and still have the bed space be intact. I suspect the same will go for the entire drivetrain. I am sure that they need all of this year to figure these and other things out.

Now that the building is enclosed for all sections it will be unclear when they even receive equipment that is CT specific. The last time a Gigapress was delivered it was almost missed by the quad squad; who is to say that they haven't already received an 8K-ton gigapress and had it hidden from public view during the Cyber Rodeo.

What I agree with is that they have the skills to do it. I have no doubt that they can get it done this year or early into the next if they will just stop focusing on MY production.
yea....maybe it got delivered in the middle of the night
 

jerhenderson

Well-known member
First Name
Jeremy
Joined
Feb 20, 2020
Threads
11
Messages
2,202
Reaction score
3,354
Location
Prince George BC
Vehicles
Cybertruck
Occupation
Correctional Officer
Country flag
It seems odd to me that they aren't even working on the Cybertruck production line (is this really true?) What are they waiting for? Why not start getting things ready so the equipment is ready to go when 4680 production reaches enough capacity.

Either Tesla is in no rush at all the start CT production, or there's more going on behind the scenes, maybe in Fremont? Maybe in Austin?
they're waiting for the gigapress and the steel body part factory for starters. CT can't come before they're done!
 

HaulingAss

Well-known member
First Name
Mike
Joined
Oct 3, 2020
Threads
9
Messages
4,495
Reaction score
9,476
Location
Washington State
Vehicles
2010 F-150, 2018 Model 3 Perform, FS Cybertruck
Country flag
Maybe I am late to the party on this one...But, I was watching Ryan Shaw's video the other day. See clip. According to a suppler, the start date of production is going to be October 2nd of 2023. This could be a random date put into the spreadsheet as a placeholder, but it does support other rumors that have been going around about production starting late next year. So, according to the tracker, I was going to be getting my Christmas Eve on 2024, I guess I have to push that back another 10 months!

I wouldn't put any weight on that particular report. It could even be purposeful misinformation by Tesla haters to push peoples expectations back.
 

Tinker71

Well-known member
First Name
Ray
Joined
Aug 8, 2020
Threads
82
Messages
1,484
Reaction score
1,967
Location
Utah
Vehicles
1976 electric conversion bus
Occupation
Project Manager
Country flag
It is crazy to think they haven't started on the line with a couple pieces of equipment set. With industrial equipment you might typically pay 10% on order, 25% on final design, 40% to ship and 25% on final commissioning. These payments are all driven by a schedule with milestones. There are provisions for storage cost and delays in receipts. These vendors have production schedules and other clients. They want to process the orders in a orderly fashion so they don't stack. Many of these orders where probably initiated in 2020 based on performance specifications not final design or molds if you will. Tesla has probably already paid for a fair amount of this equipment whether it is on site or not.

If the space is there why wouldn't they take some of this equipment they have already paid for and set and commission what you can.
 

SparkChaser

Well-known member
First Name
Leigh
Joined
Sep 10, 2020
Threads
29
Messages
697
Reaction score
979
Location
San Francisco CA
Vehicles
CyberTruck Ticket Holder, Ford Ranger, Mini Coup
Occupation
Airline Inspector
Country flag
It is crazy to think they haven't started on the line with a couple pieces of equipment set. With industrial equipment you might typically pay 10% on order, 25% on final design, 40% to ship and 25% on final commissioning. These payments are all driven by a schedule with milestones. There are provisions for storage cost and delays in receipts. These vendors have production schedules and other clients. They want to process the orders in a orderly fashion so they don't stack. Many of these orders where probably initiated in 2020 based on performance specifications not final design or molds if you will. Tesla has probably already paid for a fair amount of this equipment whether it is on site or not.

If the space is there why wouldn't they take some of this equipment they have already paid for and set and commission what you can.
Who says they have not? There can be crates sitting in Texas wrapped and waiting to be deployed as the manpower is available and as production smooths out on the Y.
 


Ogre

Well-known member
First Name
Dennis
Joined
Jul 3, 2021
Threads
164
Messages
10,719
Reaction score
26,998
Location
Ogregon
Vehicles
Model Y
Country flag
Posted this in the other thread, but Musk‘s confidence in Cybertruck start is increasing.

"We remain on track to reach volume production of Cybertruck next year (2023)."

That suggests production will be online sometime in 1st half of the year.
 

electricAK

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 5, 2020
Threads
8
Messages
230
Reaction score
547
Location
Haines, Alaska
Vehicles
Cybertruck dual-motor
Country flag
Posted this in the other thread, but Musk‘s confidence in Cybertruck start is increasing.

"We remain on track to reach volume production of Cybertruck next year (2023)."

That suggests production will be online sometime in 1st half of the year.
Another interesting tidbit from the earnings call: Elon said they already have enough inventory of 4680 cells for this year, and the cells are not currently a limiting factor. He said they would become a limiting factor next year if Tesla cannot achieve scaled production, but he's confident they will achieve that. So, it sure sounds like things are going according to plan with 4680.

Should we be expecting to see a new gigapress installed within the next few months?
 

KHappe

Well-known member
Joined
Jan 6, 2021
Threads
14
Messages
80
Reaction score
106
Location
Texas
Vehicles
CyberTruck on order
Country flag
Posted this in the other thread, but Musk‘s confidence in Cybertruck start is increasing.

"We remain on track to reach volume production of Cybertruck next year (2023)."

That suggests production will be online sometime in 1st half of the year.
I was going to make the same post from the earning call today. On they call they said, volume production of Cybertruck next year. Also in the call they said it takes 9-12 months to ramp a new line to volume production. Which means they have to start production late this year or early next year to have have volume production by the end of next year.
 

Ogre

Well-known member
First Name
Dennis
Joined
Jul 3, 2021
Threads
164
Messages
10,719
Reaction score
26,998
Location
Ogregon
Vehicles
Model Y
Country flag
I was going to make the same post from the earning call today. On they call they said, volume production of Cybertruck next year. Also in the call they said it takes 9-12 months to ramp a new line to volume production. Which means they have to start production late this year or early next year to have have volume production by the end of next year.
Yeah, that is exactly where I was going with this. Unless they are planning on ramping super fast they gotta get the first trucks out Q1 or Q2 next year
Sponsored

 
 




Top