Welcome to 2023, The Year of the Cybertruck (Predictions?)

[Ogre]

Seems increasingly likely we’ll see at least a few trucks roll off the line this year so I thought a thread where we make predictions about how this all plays out. My predictions are about just the Tesla stuff I think will happen that impacts the Cybertruck, but you can go more broad if you want.

I’ve deliberately stayed away from pricing guesses because they just end up in pointless debate.

• Gigapress assembly continues and it is completed and tossing off Cybertruck castings by end of Q1.
• 4680 ramp in Texas continues we finally see the 4680 Model Y added to the config page.
• Sometime around March - June we see the first of the beta trucks on the road. Likely at a Supercharger.
• First v4 Supercharger installations happen. Likely appearing at new locations rather than at existing chargers.
• V3 Superchargers get an upgrade to 300 or 350 kW.

• Handover party and first Cybertruck deliveries in early July — August to employees.
  • Full specs announced for the first 2 trims—AWD (dual) and LR (likely tri motor).
  • Either the Single Motor will be officially dropped or Tesla will say it’s coming later (2025 perhaps)
  • Quad motor gets renamed to Quad Plaid and gets pushed back to 2024. (See comments below)
• Cybertruck configuration page with pricing opens October — November and customer deliveries in November - December.
• Only 1 truck will be available in 2023. Likely the tri motor. Second trim will come in early-mid 2024.
• Tesla delivers 5,000 trucks before year end.

I’m probably wrong about the tri motor. That said, here’s my justification. Tesla really wants to hit that 500 mile range and the only way they hit that is by having a massive battery pack or by having an extremely efficient truck. The tri motor can use the same super efficient drivetrain as the Semi. If this happens, the tri motor truck becomes the “LR” truck leaving room for a performance/ plaid trim in the form of the quad motor.

This is based loosely on how the Model 3 launch played out, plus our understanding of current state of production.

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[fatcat220]

Thanks for starting this thread. I like what you got so far. Hmmm, I was guessing that the Plaid would be the first release due to Elon comments. I'm just guessing here, but here's my configuration prediction:
Quad Motor Plaid
Quad Motor LR
Dual Motor AWD

I'm guessing that the tri motor (my reservation) is going to be dropped for production symplicity.

 

[Mini2nut]

2023 is FINALLY predicted to be the year for Cybertruck production.

Tesla is slowly lining up the pins in preparation for the big strike. Tooling, robots, machinery, vendors, contracts, etc. 2023 is going to be an exciting year for the millions of CT reservation holders.

I am looking forward to the production reveal and newly revised MSRP’s. I predict the Single Motor will be dropped and the Dual Motor will slot in between the $65,990 Model Y and the $104,990 Model S.

 

[kbolt]

2023 is FINALLY predicted to be the year for Cybertruck production.

Tesla is slowly lining up the pins in preparation for the big strike. 2023 is going to be an exciting year for the millions of CT reservation holders.

I am looking forward to the production reveal and newly revised MSRP’s. I predict Single Motor will be dropped and the Dual Motor will slot in between the $65,990 Model Y and the $104,990 Model S.

The dual motor CT was originally announced for less than the model Y. So I think that will stay.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Seems increasingly likely we’ll see at least a few trucks roll off the line this year so I thought a thread where we make predictions about how this all plays out. My predictions are about just the Tesla stuff I think will happen that impacts the Cybertruck, but you can go more broad if you want.

I’ve deliberately stayed away from pricing guesses because they just end up in pointless debate.

• Gigapress assembly continues and it is completed and tossing off Cybertruck castings by end of Q1.
• 4680 ramp in Texas continues we finally see the 4680 Model Y added to the config page.
• Sometime around March - June we see the first of the beta trucks on the road. Likely at a Supercharger.
• First v4 Supercharger installations happen. Likely appearing at new locations rather than at existing chargers.
• V3 Superchargers get an upgrade to 300 or 350 kW.

• Handover party and first Cybertruck deliveries in early July — August to employees.
  • Full specs announced for the first 2 trims—AWD (dual) and LR (likely tri motor).
  • Either the Single Motor will be officially dropped or Tesla will say it’s coming later (2025 perhaps)
  • Quad motor gets renamed to Quad Plaid and gets pushed back to 2024. (See comments below)
• Cybertruck configuration page with pricing opens October — November and customer deliveries in November - December.
• Only 1 truck will be available in 2023. Likely the tri motor. Second trim will come in early-mid 2024.
• Tesla delivers 5,000 trucks before year end.

I’m probably wrong about the tri motor. That said, here’s my justification. Tesla really wants to hit that 500 mile range and the only way they hit that is by having a massive battery pack or by having an extremely efficient truck. The tri motor can use the same super efficient drivetrain as the Semi. If this happens, the tri motor truck becomes the “LR” truck leaving room for a performance/ plaid trim in the form of the quad motor.

This is based loosely on how the Model 3 launch played out, plus our understanding of current state of production.

For the most part these predictions make sense, though I do not think Tesla will publish specs per se. When they start deliveries they will publish manuals if that is what you mean. Given that Elon spoke about the Quad being first I would be surprised if it isn’t , and for 2 reasons: (1) 4WS might be easier to implement with independent motors and axles, and (2) if Tesla implements electro-mechanical braking it might also be more easily done with independent motors. I really hope that your prediction in number of deliveries is way off. I am hoping for more like 50,000+ this year.

 

[Ogre]

For the most part these predictions make sense, though I do not think Tesla will publish specs per se. When they start deliveries they will publish manuals if that is what you mean. Given that Elon spoke about the Quad being first I would be surprised if it isn’t , and for 2 reasons: (1) 4WS might be easier to implement with independent motors and axles, and (2) if Tesla implements electro-mechanical braking it might also be more easily done with independent motors. I really hope that your prediction in number of deliveries is way off. I am hoping for more like 50,000+ this year.

Makes a lot of sense.

50,000 trucks in 2023 means deliveries have to start in August or sooner. Even that is super generous. Took 10 months for Model Y to get to 3,000 cars a week.

Seems unlikely which is a bummer since that’s around when I’d get my truck.

 

[Rutrow]

I predict that both the tri-motor and the quad-motor will be scrapped. The Semi has shown that three motors are adequate for towing over 40k lbs, so there's no reason to weigh down the CyberTruck with more motors than necessary. A dual motor can pull more than it can stop, so first principles requires that Tesla eliminate unnecessary parts.

All Wheel Steering is easier with only one motor between the wheels, and less motor weight increases towing range by shedding lbs and allowing more batteries.

Mark my word.

 

[greggertruck]

Seems increasingly likely we’ll see at least a few trucks roll off the line this year so I thought a thread where we make predictions about how this all plays out. My predictions are about just the Tesla stuff I think will happen that impacts the Cybertruck, but you can go more broad if you want.

I’ve deliberately stayed away from pricing guesses because they just end up in pointless debate.

• Gigapress assembly continues and it is completed and tossing off Cybertruck castings by end of Q1.
• 4680 ramp in Texas continues we finally see the 4680 Model Y added to the config page.
• Sometime around March - June we see the first of the beta trucks on the road. Likely at a Supercharger.
• First v4 Supercharger installations happen. Likely appearing at new locations rather than at existing chargers.
• V3 Superchargers get an upgrade to 300 or 350 kW.

• Handover party and first Cybertruck deliveries in early July — August to employees.
  • Full specs announced for the first 2 trims—AWD (dual) and LR (likely tri motor).
  • Either the Single Motor will be officially dropped or Tesla will say it’s coming later (2025 perhaps)
  • Quad motor gets renamed to Quad Plaid and gets pushed back to 2024. (See comments below)
• Cybertruck configuration page with pricing opens October — November and customer deliveries in November - December.
• Only 1 truck will be available in 2023. Likely the tri motor. Second trim will come in early-mid 2024.
• Tesla delivers 5,000 trucks before year end.

I’m probably wrong about the tri motor. That said, here’s my justification. Tesla really wants to hit that 500 mile range and the only way they hit that is by having a massive battery pack or by having an extremely efficient truck. The tri motor can use the same super efficient drivetrain as the Semi. If this happens, the tri motor truck becomes the “LR” truck leaving room for a performance/ plaid trim in the form of the quad motor.

This is based loosely on how the Model 3 launch played out, plus our understanding of current state of production.

Shift some timeline parts around a month or 2… and I agree!
What will we see first, body panels or press scraps?

 

[Bkent100]

Seems increasingly likely we’ll see at least a few trucks roll off the line this year so I thought a thread where we make predictions about how this all plays out. My predictions are about just the Tesla stuff I think will happen that impacts the Cybertruck, but you can go more broad if you want.

I’ve deliberately stayed away from pricing guesses because they just end up in pointless debate.

• Gigapress assembly continues and it is completed and tossing off Cybertruck castings by end of Q1.
• 4680 ramp in Texas continues we finally see the 4680 Model Y added to the config page.
• Sometime around March - June we see the first of the beta trucks on the road. Likely at a Supercharger.
• First v4 Supercharger installations happen. Likely appearing at new locations rather than at existing chargers.
• V3 Superchargers get an upgrade to 300 or 350 kW.

• Handover party and first Cybertruck deliveries in early July — August to employees.
  • Full specs announced for the first 2 trims—AWD (dual) and LR (likely tri motor).
  • Either the Single Motor will be officially dropped or Tesla will say it’s coming later (2025 perhaps)
  • Quad motor gets renamed to Quad Plaid and gets pushed back to 2024. (See comments below)
• Cybertruck configuration page with pricing opens October — November and customer deliveries in November - December.
• Only 1 truck will be available in 2023. Likely the tri motor. Second trim will come in early-mid 2024.
• Tesla delivers 5,000 trucks before year end.

I’m probably wrong about the tri motor. That said, here’s my justification. Tesla really wants to hit that 500 mile range and the only way they hit that is by having a massive battery pack or by having an extremely efficient truck. The tri motor can use the same super efficient drivetrain as the Semi. If this happens, the tri motor truck becomes the “LR” truck leaving room for a performance/ plaid trim in the form of the quad motor.

This is based loosely on how the Model 3 launch played out, plus our understanding of current state of production.

2024 deferral

 

[JBee]

I predict that both the tri-motor and the quad-motor will be scrapped. The Semi has shown that three motors are adequate for towing over 40k lbs, so there's no reason to weigh down the CyberTruck with more motors than necessary. A dual motor can pull more than it can stop, so first principles requires that Tesla eliminate unnecessary parts.

All Wheel Steering is easier with only one motor between the wheels, and less motor weight increases towing range by shedding lbs and allowing more batteries.

Mark my word.

I highly doubt a tri-motor Cybertruck will get a clutch to disengage the rear motors like the Semi. It will also not have the same gearing and transaxle like the Semi. If anything they'd do it like the M3 and have an induction motor in the rear that can free-wheel, without the need of a clutch, and a PM in the front.

But my prediction still is the same, there will only be a quad CF wrapped motor version for 4WD, and the dual motor if ever, will just be two CF motors on the rear axle. These CF motors will be smaller and have a higher gearing to be optimised for the CT. As Monroe pointed out Tesla electric motors only cost $400, so 4x is only $1600, and smaller lighter ones cheaper than that, and can have an efficiency map that peaks at a lower load, meaning they can all be tuned to stay on and still be efficient at cruise.

As per the other Tesla performance models CT acceleration performance will be tyre traction limited, but not limited by motor performance under 60mph. They can all break traction over 40mph so more power doesn't help if you can't put it on the ground.

All CTs will have 4WS, and is not affected by how many motors it has at all.

 

[kbolt]

Boooo, hiss

 

[KrodEKid]

Good predictions already. I don't have anything useful to add.

I expect to get mine in Summer 2024. 80k in line, double motor, live in Ohio.

Still holding out hope for factory pickup and tour option over delivery. Elon was planning to make some nature park of sorts. It would be cool if there was an on grounds off road test track for all new owners. This kind of service would slay the competition if they could pull off this type of on-site delivery experience.

 

[greggertruck]

Still holding out hope for factory pickup and tour option over delivery.

Place would be like an amusement park. Figure 5500 trucks produced daily at ramp level. Maybe more?

If 5% of people wanted to opt to pick up and your, that’s 275 people, probably +1’s also…. waltzing around the biggest secretive factory in the world. tours would hold up the production line.

I would hope we get a cool video inside at least.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Makes a lot of sense.

50,000 trucks in 2023 means deliveries have to start in August or sooner. Even that is super generous. Took 10 months for Model Y to get to 3,000 cars a week.

Seems unlikely which is a bummer since that’s around when I’d get my truck.

You are forgetting, or discounting 2 things: (1) the GA Model Y was supposed to use the 4680 cells and structural battery and they had to take at least a month extra to build out a 2170 line, and (2) without a paint path and simplified machining the CT should be a faster build with fewer issues. So they ‘could’, possibly, ramp faster. Anyway, it’s January 1 and I give myself the privilege of hoping for a larger number of deliveries in 2023.

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