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Cybertruck Predictions - Battery Size & Range!

Trucky

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This is where the solar charging option would be extremely useful for me: I work from home 95% of the time so if the CT is sitting out in the sun, I doubt I would even need to plug it in much if, on a fully sunny day I could get 20+ miles of net range.
That is extremely optimistic. With any array the size of the tonneau or even the whole truck you’d be lucky to net 5/day
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Cyberostachu

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Calculated ranges for ICE are often wrong since you end up losing so much to idling - which aren't in the instant calculations.

-Crissa

Furthest I've gone on the freeway in my Mazda is Santa Cruz to Eagle Point. Probably good my spouse wasn't with me, 'cause the guessometer hit 0 going up Siskiyou Pass...
We all have varied experiences. It's true that EPA ratings are off. However, I didn't experience that with my BMW. It says 17 mpg city and I got exactly that. It says 26 miles highway, I got that and more if I drove on an extended pure highway. That's why I have high regards on BMW for ICE cars except for very expensive dealer maintenance services. I had my car for 13 years and I loved that baby. My wife cried when I sold it to get this EV because I only have a 2 car garage. I don't agree parking a decent car in the driveway. But, hopefully this CT would bring me happiness if ever it arrives while I can still drive. I'm old.
 

cvalue13

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My BMW was a 535i.
Ah! For an aerodynamic 5-series ICE, especially those geared just so, I can see getting 500mi at still pretty high speeds. (Whereas a BMW M3 I would think is wound a little tight to cruise efficiently at 80mph for sustained distances?)

And at least at the margins, BEV and ICE vehicles can have inapposite range optimization conditions: BEV prime around town but sensitive to sustained high speeds; while ICE sensitive to around town and, up prime Hwy (up to a point of speed inefficiency)

Meanwhile, Tesla is notoriously optimistic in its EPA range submission calculations.

With BEVs in particular, I understand that there are some improvements that could be made regarding standardization of EPA data submission from manufacturers. That’s sure to come, or be debunked.

But at the end of the day, either way, the key variable here for you isn’t so much the inaccuracy of EPA-stated range, as it is your ‘required’ speed conditions of 80mph sustained

EPA max hwy range is based on a test with variable speed real world HWY conditions, probably more akin to a 50 mile commute - which test conditions have an about 50mph average.

Changes from those test conditions = YMVM
 

Cyberostachu

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Ah! For an aerodynamic 5-series ICE, especially those geared just so, I can see getting 500mi at still pretty high speeds. (Whereas a BMW M3 I would think is wound a little tight to cruise efficiently at 80mph for sustained distances?)

And at least at the margins, BEV and ICE vehicles can have inapposite range optimization conditions: BEV prime around town but sensitive to sustained high speeds; while ICE sensitive to around town and, up prime Hwy (up to a point of speed inefficiency)

Meanwhile, Tesla is notoriously optimistic in its EPA range submission calculations.

With BEVs in particular, I understand that there are some improvements that could be made regarding standardization of EPA data submission from manufacturers. That’s sure to come, or be debunked.

But at the end of the day, either way, the key variable here for you isn’t so much the inaccuracy of EPA-stated range, as it is your ‘required’ speed conditions of 80mph sustained

EPA max hwy range is based on a test with variable speed real world HWY conditions, probably more akin to a 50 mile commute - which test conditions have an about 50mph average.

Changes from those test conditions = YMVM
I botched about this with tesla store/service. I said I expected at least 280 miles for a 330-mile rated car. They said it my driving. Partly true partly BS.
Well, months later I read across on Google search that the 72 kw battery was only set for 75% usable so it was in essence only 54 kw that I was using. It made sense on mathematical point of view but not in the consumer pocket point of view. Actually, despite of my driving habit and the un-ideal highway I take, I average about 3.5 mi per kwh. So, 3.5 x 54 = less 200 mi. I agree in math but I'm not happy. ? ? ?
 


cvalue13

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Well, months later I read across on Google search that the 72 kw battery was only set for 75% usable so it was in essence only 54 kw that I was using.
strange though, because any EPA rating should be based purely on useable in the first place

At one point back I had read up on and was more agile with the particulars of the math the EPA performs vs the math that manufactures get to submit - and how the latter in particular is … a bit flexible.

but since then, I’ve slept and replaced that memory with surely even more useless information

Left with only the brute memory that it’s a bit flexible and also that there’s good data out there from Tesla owners with millions of miles of collective data that shows real world is markedly different from EPA rating
 

Diehard

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My reasoning is very personal. I live in a place that's 85 miles to a big city WITHOUT CHARGERS ALONG THE WAY, yet, where I shop for ethnic groceries visit relatives and do other stops. The highway terrain is far from normal. So much winding and people don't drive under 80 for a 70- mile stretch of 75 mph limit. One time I drove 70 mph only to get a decent mileage on my EV, I felt sorry for myself. Every vehicle passed me by regardless if old cargo trucks, small old cars, shuttles, buses, etc. I said this is not what I paid for this $50K car, supposed to go 135 mph and accelerate 4.2 secs 0 to 60. These specs are bullshit, not usable, impractical. I thought I shouldn't have to worry about the range going back home. I was so used to driving anywhere without worry coz I could return home with juice for more trips. To be honest, if I knew beforehand that I have to sacrifice, I wish I would have held on to my BMW. The friend I sold my BMW to is very, very happy with it.
Therefore, I'll the the CT tri motor to erase my range anxiety.
yup, it very Much is a matter of circumstance at this time. My day to day driving is minimal and I charge only once or twice a week unless I am going on a road trip. And as I mentioned I have a back up plan so my compromises are minimal. Because of that difference in circumstances, people should not be quick to judge each other because of their choice as long as those choices are informed.
 

Ogre

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That is extremely optimistic. With any array the size of the tonneau or even the whole truck you’d be lucky to net 5/day
If the goal is
This is certainly true. I see that with people starting a conversation with me when they find out what I am driving is an EV. For me personally, the reason I took the Subaru instead of my truck in the last road trip (Maryland to Ontario) was not necessarily the range difference between the two but what happens when they exhaust that range. With Subaru, there was no planning, no compromises on where I stop to rest, eat or rejuice and no worries I may get stranded if EA does not play ball. I theoretically could make it work based on what trip ABRP told me but it simply was not as easy. A 300 mile Subaru would have been just as good as a 610 mile Subaru because I could refuel anywhere in 5 minutes If I needed. I suspect this difference will shrink as reliable charging locations increase and the tech improves to reduce charging time. For now the combination of the two makes having an EV a pleasure for me. Yesterday I loaded my truck with a couch, two Kayaks on top and filled every inch of available space with junk to transport. I juiced up my 98 KWh battery to 96% when I started my regular 140 mile trip. I was a bit nervous thinking the raised racks and kayaks are going to kill my range (non-Tesla public charging sucks on second part of my trip). So just to be safe I took slower roads. My max speed was a short lived 77 mph. Most of my speed was 64 and bellow and included many traffic lights and slower speed. I was shocked to see gessometer at 2.4 mi/KWh for much of the trip until I hit that 77 mph burst. There was a 7 series BMW that needed to be thought a lesson ;) I really had to keep the stupid in me in check with acceleration so he didn’t end up with a couch and two kayaks on his windshield. Anyways, I ended up with 2.3 mi/KWh at the end of the trip and a ton of juice left in the pack.

All that to say, you are right about the speed. That matters more than anything especially in a big box like my ride. I used to have fun with that with the Subaru and tried to keep the gessometer over 45 mpg as long as I could but it was just a game. I still drove at a comfortable speed on the highway. Now I am much more conscious of it on longer trips with the EV but as I understand the truck and impact of different conditions on it, my comfort level increases. For some ICE people, that may tow long distance often, they won’t budge until the tech and infrastructure catches up but for the rest, it is a matter of one good acceleration (and may be a good price) and they will switch teams. For me personally, once superchargers are on line or when I get a CT, I probably won’t use the Subaru that much.
I bought the Subaru because at the time it was be far the most efficient vehicle which offered the kind of utility it does. Sadly, if you are looking at ICE, things haven’t changed a bunch.
 

Cyberostachu

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Very curious about this BMW that has 500 miles actual range at 80MPH. Pretty sure this is pure fantasy.
I got 500 miles when on a pure highway at 80 mph. I drove round trip to Vancouver from Las Vegas. There were laps where I averaged 28 mpg for say 200 miles before I rest or ate. My car had an 18 gallon tank. If you multiply 18 gallons by 28 mpg, that's 500 miles. You don't expect me to drive the whole 500 miles without stopping to rest or to eat. No, It's not fantasy and my car was rated 26 miles highway. I had BMW 5 series.
I was comparing it to my Tesla that's rated 330 miles full charge but cannot reach 250 mi even if I drove 65 mph. That's not fantasy either because I tried it myself. I complained to Tesla and because they didn’t believe me, I told Tesla to get their best driver to drive my EV for me and if they get
260 miles (which the standard is rated) after a full charge, I'd give them $1,000. They didn’t take my challenge. Their rating was so high. and I was naive to believe it.
 

Cyberostachu

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yup, it very Much is a matter of circumstance at this time. My day to day driving is minimal and I charge only once or twice a week unless I am going on a road trip. And as I mentioned I have a back up plan so my compromises are minimal. Because of that difference in circumstances, people should not be quick to judge each other because of their choice as long as those choices are informed.
Thanks for your open mindedness.
Some people live on a flat area like Chicago. Maybe you get close to 300 mi there but in my area, I didn't expect ev to be this sensitive that I drive like I'm paranoid due to the range issue. Other than the range, I like ev that's why I'll get the CT tri if I'm still alive when my turn comes.
 


Cyberostachu

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My wife’s outback goes more than that with one tank at 80 mph. You must be thinking EV. He must be talking ICE.
Yes, I was talking ICE that gets 500 miles. This EV is my first one where EPA range is 330 mi but I have not personally driven 220 miles on a full charge. Couldn't make it. Regardless of wind. AC, heater, 80 mph speed or other factors, 280 miles would have been ideal and acceptable. But I still want my 500 mile CT because if it gets at least 300 miles, no more anxiety.
 

Diehard

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Yes, I was talking ICE that gets 500 miles. This EV is my first one where EPA range is 330 mi but I have not personally driven 220 miles on a full charge. Couldn't make it. Regardless of wind. AC, heater, 80 mph speed or other factors, 280 miles would have been ideal and acceptable. But I still want my 500 mile CT because if it gets at least 300 miles, no more anxiety.
remember with CT, if you have super chargers on the way just to give you enough juice to make up the difference, you may not need as much range. Of course having it is often better.
 

Cyberostachu

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remember with CT, if you have super chargers on the way just to give you enough juice to make up the difference, you may not need as much range. Of course having it is often better.
I'm betting on the tri motor which is supposed to be rated 500 mi to at least get 300 mile. Hope I won't LOSE AGAIN. To get 300 miles against any factor thrown your way is comfortable
 

Crissa

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It's true that EPA ratings are off.
No, it's not true.

If you didn't speed, had a mix of driving, were in a temperate environment, you'd get the EPA range.

If my Mazda had an 18 gallon tank, too... I'd get around 600 miles range.

-Crissa
 

charliemagpie

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Everyone is currently speculating on recent density.

What actually capacity/density does the 4680 need to achieve in order to fulfill its promise of 500 miles ?

_____________________________________

Goodness, ChatGPT come on down !!! But is the answer close ?


To determine the required energy density for the 4680 battery cells to fulfill the promise of a 500-mile range, we need to make some assumptions and calculations.

Energy Density = Battery Capacity / Battery Volume

First, let's assume a specific energy density value in watt-hours per liter (Wh/L) that the 4680 battery cells need to achieve. This value will vary based on the specific chemistry and design of the battery, as well as the desired performance and safety requirements. For this estimation, let's assume a specific energy density of 350 Wh/L.

Next, we need to calculate the required battery volume for a 125 kWh capacity battery:

Battery Volume = Battery Capacity / Energy Density

Battery Volume = 125,000 Wh / (350 Wh/L) ≈ 357.14 L

So, in order to fulfill the promise of a 500-mile range, the 4680 battery cells would need to achieve an energy density that allows for a battery volume of approximately 357.14 liters.
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