Cybertruck Predictions - Battery Size & Range!

[Ogre]

Tesla didnt arbitrarily pick their prices and ranges out of a hat.

They had a specific reason to pick the price ranges they did. I kind of doubt the reasons they chose the price points and ranges they did have changed much in the past 3 years. They truck buying market is largely the same as it was 3 years ago.

Once the novelty of something different has worn off, the people buying the Cybertruck will be the same people buying trucks a couple years ago. In the long run, those same price points, same ranges, and same features are likely to stick.

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[swengl]

For extended trips, Supercharging takes about 20 minutes per 2-3 hours of driving.

Most charging is done at home, when you're not waiting (i.e. overnight).

This is where the solar charging option would be extremely useful for me: I work from home 95% of the time so if the CT is sitting out in the sun, I doubt I would even need to plug it in much if, on a fully sunny day I could get 20+ miles of net range.

 

[ED_SFO]

Why two 50kWs when they could just double the 100kW pack?

Also, how does this relate to how the CTs are gonna charge at the current 400V Superchargers? If they have two packs they combine as either Plaid pack 450V (parallel) or 900V (series), so that works for the bottom (2x50kWh) and top (4x50kWh) tier, but if the mid-tier is 150kWhs made up of 3 packs that doesn't work, so they would need their own split pack size.

Ahh I get where you are going..so basically if they made two modules all they need to make is a 100kw pack and a 50kw pack in my prediction...

100kw for base
100kw +50kw for dual
Stacked 100kw + 100kw for tri/quad

In the end i just think they can and will just make the battery modules in the size they need for packaging and longevity. But my idea definitely is not out of the equation as other manufacturers are installing multiple battery modules in different areas of the vehicle.

Battery density should jump significantly when they add silicone to the 4680, i would they they would need this extra capacity soon.

 

[Crissa]

Battery density should jump significantly when they add silicone to the 4680, i would they they would need this extra capacity soon.

Silicon. Silicone is a rubbery plastic.

-Crissa

 

[Bill906]

Silicon. Silicone is a rubbery plastic.

-Crissa

Easy way to remember:
siliCONE, as in Madonna's cone shaped bra. Bras hold boobies. Fake boobies are made of siliCONE.

 

[Roy2001]

My prediction is that for initial models, it'll be either a dual motor or a tri-motor with a 140 KWh battery size resulting in 350 miles range. Cost: No less than $50K and no more than $69,420.

500+ mile range trim/model will eventually come and it is likely to have a 200 KWh battery. Cost: Less than $80,000

Basically, the Cybertruck will undercut the Ford Lightning and the Rivian R1T by 10% to 20%, and Tesla will have an insane gross margin while they are at it.

Prices will be dynamic: Tesla will adjust pricing (upwards or downwards) to ensure that supply = demand.

Thoughts?

The price you predict won't happen until 2026.

 

[TyPope]

Ahh I get where you are going..so basically if they made two modules all they need to make is a 100kw pack and a 50kw pack in my prediction...

100kw for base
100kw +50kw for dual
Stacked 100kw + 100kw for tri/quad

In the end i just think they can and will just make the battery modules in the size they need for packaging and longevity. But my idea definitely is not out of the equation as other manufacturers are installing multiple battery modules in different areas of the vehicle.

Battery density should jump significantly when they add silicone to the 4680, i would they they would need this extra capacity soon.

Not bad. I was thinking they'd just doublestack the Model Y battery (different case, but same number of batteries per layer thus simplifying bandolier production)... at least for the top tier 150KwH battery pack. Combine that with an efficiency of 300W per mile will achieve 500 miles of range.

 

[Ogre]

The price you predict won't happen until 2026.

Tesla is not selling half a million trucks over $70,000. Nobody sells 250,000 $80,000 trucks a year, particularly not at these interest rates. You won’t find enough people qualifying for the loan.

First model out may be more expensive than $70k, but they will release a lower end model sometime in 2024.

 

[ldjessee]

This news article from 2013 talks about pickup trucks topping over $70k.

In the 10 years since, prices have not gone down.

I do think they could sell trucks for over $70k... and maybe even over 250,000 of them.

But I also think that after a year or so, they will release a lower trim version, maybe two.

And if they make a van, I would assume it would be designed for the world market... and a pickup based on that for the world market would sell even better in Europe and Asia... but that is a guess.

 

[Gurule92]

This news article from 2013 talks about pickup trucks topping over $70k.

In the 10 years since, prices have not gone down.

I do think they could sell trucks for over $70k... and maybe even over 250,000 of them.

But I also think that after a year or so, they will release a lower trim version, maybe two.

And if they make a van, I would assume it would be designed for the world market... and a pickup based on that for the world market would sell even better in Europe and Asia... but that is a guess.

 

[Crissa]

It's possible the demand is there.

However, that's 5-10x the Model S/X they have ever sold at that price.

It would also cement the brand as a toy for the rich, and hurt their reputation.

It would also give rise to rumors that they cannot lower prices - even if they ran high margins. Because margins are on paper, and rumors are whatever.

And then when they did lower the price, even if they continues to massively increase sales, rumors would swirl that they had a demand problem.

First impressions are important. They give lasting impact that lowering their price later wouldn't do.

-Crissa

 

[Arctic_White]

It's possible the demand is there.

However, that's 5-10x the Model S/X they have ever sold at that price.

It would also cement the brand as a toy for the rich, and hurt their reputation.

It would also give rise to rumors that they cannot lower prices - even if they ran high margins. Because margins are on paper, and rumors are whatever.

And then when they did lower the price, even if they continues to massively increase sales, rumors would swirl that they had a demand problem.

First impressions are important. They give lasting impact that lowering their price later wouldn't do.

-Crissa

Well stated.

Because of what you said, I have a feeling that they will price it right and then gauge to see what the demand is like. If the demand remains high, they will have no choice but to adjust price to get to the market-clearing level where supply and demand match.

This also allows those that reserved earlier to get a "good deal" if Tesla ends up increasing the price. On the flip side, if Tesla decreases price because the demand is slow, well, that's the reality of life. LOL.

 

[Mini2nut]

My guess is that the CT will use the same construction approach as the newest version of the Model Y that’s built in TX.

A 4680 structural battery pack that bolts to the BIW with the seats anchored on top of the pack. We already know that the CT will use front and rear Giga castings similar to the Model Y.

 

[Cyberostachu]

My prediction is that for initial models, it'll be either a dual motor or a tri-motor with a 140 KWh battery size resulting in 350 miles range. Cost: No less than $50K and no more than $69,420.

500+ mile range trim/model will eventually come and it is likely to have a 200 KWh battery. Cost: Less than $80,000

Basically, the Cybertruck will undercut the Ford Lightning and the Rivian R1T by 10% to 20%, and Tesla will have an insane gross margin while they are at it.

Prices will be dynamic: Tesla will adjust pricing (upwards or downwards) to ensure that supply = demand.

Thoughts?

I wish you got the pricing right because I can live with it. I want the tri motor and I'll only go up to a certain price.

 

[Arctic_White]

I wish you got the pricing right because I can live with it. I want the tri motor and I'll only go up to a certain price.

This may very well be the initial pricing. However, if the demand is high then the prices will certainly increase to match the demand.

Therefore those that order later with the higher price may end up getting it sooner than the reservation holders who got locked in at a lower price.

We see that happening with Model Y in 2022...

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