Cybertruck deliveries to hit 100-120k in 2024 says analyst Ming-Chi Kuo

[PilotPete]

if folks paid attention to where/how that 375k prediction arose, it’s actually pretty closely mirrors this analyst’s predictions of ~120k

the 375k number came from a Tesla communication to third party parts manufacturers as being the potential max unit order number

Elon said the production would run about 250k/year. He then said maybe up to 500k/yr. Then the story comes out about the vendors being asked to be ready to produce 375k/yr. Does anyone else find it coincidental that 375 is EXACTLY right between 250 and 500? Perfectly halfway? Where are the anchovies, because something smells fishy.

That said, I have an opinion on the percentage of drop outs in the reservation line, but I think Tesla will push towards 500k/year. I dom't know if they will EVER hit that target, but I think they will try. 2025 may see more than 375k produced, 2024 less, so I don't see the middle number being a stop along that line.

Sponsored

 

[SlegMD]

Only if EM sings periodically through the experience. I bet he has a melancholy voice?

 

[Tinker71]

Cybertruck 2 will have upgraded battery options. Possibly more compact motors. I do think this estimate is as good as any. There will be 30-40% pass rate and there won't be a need to produce more than 250k per year.

 

[Mini2nut]

Analysis translation: if you didn’t place your Cybertruck reservation by 9-10am on day 2 you will not be getting your Cybertruck until 2025.

 

[Cybergirl]

That grain of salt was a bit hard to swallow.

 

[cvalue13]

Elon said the production would run about 250k/year.

specifically, he responded to the question of what would be the CT’s max run rate when fully ramped. He has never said that 2024 would achieve ‘fully ramped.’

For all we know, ‘fully ramped’ requires more gigapresses and significantly more battery production.

but as we best understand it, ~250k a year would ~max out current gigapress capacity, and 250k units would actually be a more common ratio of units to a parts order for 375k max capacity.

all-in-all, the point is that I personally don’t have a hard view on what total production in 2024 could look like - even assuming no press or battery constraints.

and I inject observations like those above only to the extent people fly in with these high numbers supported by hopium, primarily.

and to be fair to us unsure and skeptical, it was only 1 year ago that on this forum people were casually in agreement as common sense that production would be 500k ‘or more’ by the end of 2023

 

[intimidator]

One of the most respected and accurate Apple analysts in the world, Ming-Chi Kuo gives his estimates for Cybertruck delivery figures in 2023, 2024 and 2025.

1. The current shipment estimates for the Cybertruck in 2023, 2024, and 2025 are 100–200, 100,000–120,000, and 240,000–260,000 units, respectively.
2. The innovative designs of Cybertruck (such as aerodynamic efficiency) are expected to maintain its competitive advantage until 2030, meaning the all-new designed Cybertruck 2 will likely not start shipping until 2030.
3. Before the launch of Cybertruck 2, there will be versions of the Cybertruck with upgraded or modified specifications but with an essentially unchanged form factor design.
4. It’s clear that the Cybertruck will be a significant contributor to Tesla’s revenue and profit growth for years to come, and this contribution is expected to remain unaffected by seasonality or economic downturns for the foreseeable future.

Those predictions seem reasonable.

I don’t think those in the know see more than 125,000 units in 2024. This will take time to ramp.

of course fan boys will disagree and predict 250,000 in 2024. We will see. By the end of January we will have a good handle of 2024 delivery estimates.

 

[intimidator]

Those predictions seem reasonable.

I don’t think those in the know see more than 125,000 units in 2024. This will take time to ramp.

of course fan boys will disagree and predict 250,000 in 2024. We will see. By the end of January we will have a good handle of 2024 delivery estimates.

 

[davelloydbrown]

I am a second day reservation holder so I should be good for 2024. But since there were over 200 k reservations in the first week, that means that half of the reservations made in the first week will not be filled until 2025!

With regard to CT 2.0, the only major changes that I anticipate would be improvements in the 4680.

 

[Bkent100]

Tesla never said the Cybertruck would have a laser or electromagnetic wiper.

Where did you get that idea from? Probably the Tesla fanboys who think every patent Tesla files for is going to be implemented, but only an extremely low percentage of all patents filed for make it into the marketplace.

And Federal Motor Vehicle rules require mirrors, nothing Tesla can do about that except point out that the owner can remove them if they want. And Elon has already made that clear (the mirrors will be easily removeable.

Best not to project your own hopes and dreams too much, lest one become frustrated and angry.

But they did say bulletproof….

 

[Jethro]

…AND where is the CYBERQUAD???

 

[Arctic_White]

if folks paid attention to where/how that 375k prediction arose, it’s actually pretty closely mirrors this analyst’s predictions of ~120k

the 375k number came from a Tesla communication to third party parts manufacturers as being the potential max unit order number

And when ordering parts, one does not order the number of parts needed based on the number of expected completed vehicles, but instead a multiple of that for purposes of service replacement parts, parts wastage, etc. So eg a number of 375k parts a year can equate to an expectation of ~180k trucks built a year … juiced up as a max that the manu must be prepared to meet

so if Tesla expected to build for example 120K units in a year, they juice the max capacity obligation for eg 180k units per year, and an expectation of having spares on hand for each unit built

none of that’s a science of course, but instead an example of how people took the 375k parts order and made a bunch of incorrect assumptions about the vehicle build expectation

Huh.

Then how do you square your post with what Elon said when he mentioned that "we will build as many Cybertrucks as the market wants?"

We all know that in North America, pickup trucks are the highest-selling vehicle category. Don't you think Tesla will get at least a 25% market share? If the 3 and Y currently have 65% market share in North America within their respective categories, don't you think the Cybertruck will get at least to 25%?

25% would equal roughly 1M units / year in North America (includes Canada).

No, I am not saying that Tesla will get to 1M annual production tomorrow. But within 5 years? You bet.

Lastly, I would be utterly shocked if the Cybertruck isn't the best selling pickup truck in North America by 2030. You can do the math to see how many units that will be.

 

[Arctic_White]

Folks saying/thinking that Tesla won't be able to make more than 250K trucks per year need to ask this: what is the Cyberturck's competition?

We've got:
Rivian R1T
Ford F-150 Lightning, and
Silverado EV

That's it.

If we all believe that the world is transitioning to EVs then the above 3 vehicles are the only ones that currently exist.

I didn't include Hummer EV as that is ultra-niche nor have I included any future EV trucks that are planned but not yet produced.

Unless the market for pickup trucks somehow shrinks, I just don't see how Tesla does not make 1M+ Cybertrucks annually by 2030. Ramping up will take time, however. How much time is anyone's guess.

 

[cvalue13]

Huh.

Then how do you square your post with what Elon said when he mentioned that "we will build as many Cybertrucks as the market wants?"

We all know that in North America, pickup trucks are the highest-selling vehicle category. Don't you think Tesla will get at least a 25% market share? If the 3 and Y currently have 65% market share in North America within their respective categories, don't you think the Cybertruck will get at least to 25%?

25% would equal roughly 1M units / year in North America (includes Canada).

No, I am not saying that Tesla will get to 1M annual production tomorrow. But within 5 years? You bet.

Lastly, I would be utterly shocked if the Cybertruck isn't the best selling pickup truck in North America by 2030. You can do the math to see how many units that will be.

seems maybe you’re not following the discussion I was in

the discussion was about how many CTs will be built in 2023/2024

Sponsored