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JBee

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You're only looking at initial demand for people who placed orders before the release. NASA will by CTs for the moon and Mars. Israel and Ukraine (government and citizens) will want to get the vehicle as well. Drug cartels will want it. Once people start seeing them on the streets regular folks will want it. Once it gets on job sites manual laborers will want it. Once international orders are opened again, they will want it. There is probably a 20 year backlog for this product at the currently proposed 250k run rate, the log just hasn't been filled out yet.
Total CT demand for moon and Mars is zero. It will never go to either unless it's for testing a payload like the Roadster in Mars orbit.

But CT demand here on Terra firmament is sky high by all counts, so no worries selling any production levels, so long interest rates stay affordable.
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It’s 250k per year because that’s what the presses can handle. I think he is thinking in the back of his head. The CT is a beast, it’s going to be expensive and probably not the best path toward a sustainable energy future with limited resources. But let’s see where it goes.
 

anionic1

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Total CT demand for moon and Mars is zero. It will never go to either unless it's for testing a payload like the Roadster in Mars orbit.

But CT demand here on Terra firmament is sky high by all counts, so no worries selling any production levels, so long interest rates stay affordable.
It’s going to stop a 9mm. This is no better at war than a f150. And if you bring an EV to war, you are an idiot. Ild take a M35 multifuel. Probably run of compost tea if you needed it to.
 

anionic1

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Another Elon quote that stood out to me:

"It’ll be cool but it’s utilitarian. It’s not meant to fill you with awe and magic, it’s to get you from a to b. It’s still beautiful, but it’s a utility."

This does not make it sound prohibitively expensive imo.
That’s probably the best thing I have ever heard about the CT. Keep it simple.
 


anionic1

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I'm predicting < 500 CT deliveries before end of 2023 and between 20,000 to 50,000 CT deliveries before end of 2024.

Tesla/Elon will NOT ramp up CT production until they figure out how to cost effectively mass produce it. Model 3 only had about 50k produced in the first year before they started mass production at the 5,000/week run rate.

On the flip side, my early CT reservation becomes more valuable now :D
But the model 3 was also really their first mass produced car. Now they know what they are doing and they have the biggest factory to do it in.
 

RobUK

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Great News for Tesla and early Cybertruck reservation holders in the US.
Hope we get some news soon on RHD Cybertrucks for the UK.

Although I have 24/11/2019 Reservation for Cybertruck Duel Motor AWD, with FSD.
I doubt we will see the Cybertruck released in the UK until 2025, if at all.
Patience is a virtue, or so they say.
 

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He literally said it's still at a loss until probably 2025.

-Crissa
That’s unfortunate and doesn’t bode well in the pricing department. I guess the question now is how much of a loss are they willing to take? Is it even worth ramping up the CT that quickly over other vehicles that are selling well and have higher margins, like the Model Y and 3? Should Tesla severely reduce production the Model S and Y and just make a smaller amount for sentimental reasons, like they’ve wanted to do in the past? Then they can focus more on the CT and the Semi.

Hindsight is always 20/20, but I think it would have been better if Tesla had focused on the $25K vehicle and the Robotaxi first, rather than the CT. That way people might have actually been able to afford them under our current economic conditions. Of course FSD hitting level 4/5 would have to happen first, at least for the Robotaxi.

These are dark times, but Tesla will survive.
 

JBee

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It’s going to stop a 9mm. This is no better at war than a f150. And if you bring an EV to war, you are an idiot. Ild take a M35 multifuel. Probably run of compost tea if you needed it to.
I think you quotes the wrong post, I didn't mention that it won't stop a 9mm. The SS will, the glass we don't really know for sure yet, but I doubt it.

That’s probably the best thing I have ever heard about the CT. Keep it simple
That comment was EM talking about the next gen sub$25k car.
 


Coolbreeze704

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I see last night as a necessary reset. Expectations are pulled back and recalibrated. World events, consumer sentiment and Fed rate hikes are impacting all businesses. The smart ones adjust for long term health and growth as Tesla is doing.

The fact they are profitable and growing in this climate is amazing. The good news is we have a date for CT release and we have a road map for 2023,2024. I believe the street expectations will be low for Q4 and 2024 and TSLA is now set up to over deliver.

I will be buying the dip and watch energy storage, FSD, and Optimus drive the stock to new highs by the end of 2024.

It is not the news you wanted last night but IMO they are making the right moves and setting up for a massive and healthy business when the Fed does pivot and these 2 horrible world events subside.
 
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Macgreiner

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Price? Price? Price?
 

theoldguy

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I see last night as a necessary reset. Expectations are pulled back and recalibrated. World events, consumer sentiment and Fed rate hikes are impacting all businesses. The smart ones adjust for long term health and growth as Tesla is doing.

The fact they are profitable and growing in this climate is amazing. The good news is we have a date for CT release and we have a rod map for 2023,2024. I believe the street expectations will be low for Q4 and 2024 and TSLA is now set up to over deliver.

I will be buying the dip and watch energy storage, FSD, and Optimus drive the stock to new highs by the end of 2024.

It is not the news you wanted last night but IMO they are making the right moves and setting up for a massive and healthy business when the Fed does pivot and these 2 horrible world events subside.
Excellent post Coolbreez, and exactly what I needed to hear. Man that earnings call was a huge financial bummer for me but, your "put on the big boy pants" post is profound.
:)
 

CT8769

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Not good:
1. Sounds like it's going to be more expensive than we had anticipated (and I was expecting far more than the original price's noted)

2. Ramp is going to be very slow. 125,000 is about 10k a month. But getting to that 10k a month is highly unlikely to happen in 2024. Realistically expecting any more than 50,000 to be delivered next year is likely wishful thinking.

I'm 44,000 on the list and don't expect to get one next year. I've had a model S for 5 years. I think I might move on and get a new car this year. I'm just not sure I'm willing to wait any longer.
 
 








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