Elon reveals Cybertruck details / production expectations on Q3 2023 call

[cvalue13]

Do you know the margins on a Toyota? The benchmark for all until Tesla arrived.
Tesla isn’t dumb and neither are there accounting folk. They’ll take market share and make money hand over fist with all the EV’s converting to NAC. And so on.

but that is baked into stock price

this point is this:

• Toyota Market Cap: $289 billion, selling 10.5 million cars a year, or $27,500/vehicle
• Tesla Market Cap (5 days ago): $820 billion, 1.3 million cars, or $683,000/vehicle - 25 times more than Toyota

Which means on a cap basis, if Toyota’s profit margin is 10%, Tesla’s needs to be 250% to justify it’s market cap as reflecting it’s profits per vehicle

If course, Tesla’s market cap factors in (to some minority degree) other things like Optimus.

But compared to Tesla, those things are not making up the 25 times difference in cap-vehicle value compared to Toyota.

Tesla’s better profit margin is in part WHY Tesla’s market cap is 25X larger than Toyota’s on this cap-to-vehicle metric. So making less profit margin per vehicle could effectit’s stock price every bit as much as if Toyota signaled reduced margins. Arguably more, bc that 25X (10% vs 250% margin) is a LOT

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[JBee]

Well I listened to it anyway.

Some other interesting bits regarding the nex-gen $25k model:

• It's not Stainless Steel, or Cybertruck style body
• not high voltage.
• It's "conventional design" but "beautiful".
• Mexico plant won't be built unless economy improves, and finance costs comes down
• also meaning, at least in IMHO, taken together with the CT profitability expectations, that CT will be priced as low as they can initially. I think his general comments around affordability, makes it clear he is concerned about demand being throttled by high interest finance.

Overall, I think he is more concerned about world events in general and how that affects what he would actually like to do. He is also worried about a repeat GFC. I don't think he likes the investor calls either still.

So ramp might look something like this:

 

[AxelR]

‘I read that the F-150 has 6” of travel and the Raptor trim has 11”. So 14” sounds great to me. Should be a smooth ride.

Check your numbers…

 

[CYBRSMTH]

Sounded to me like he was preparing investors to expect losses on CT sales for a while. Which could imply affordability

I think that’s wishful thinking. No way Tesla is going to take losses on a brand new product that took them 4+ years to develop. Their stock would tank. There are current drops in deliveries and earnings due to the state of the economy and interest rates. The CT is supposed to help Tesla reach its 2023 goal of selling 1.8 million EVs. They need to make a profit, even if it’s just to recoup R&D costs.

 

[cvalue13]

‘I read that the F-150 has 6” of travel and the Raptor trim has 11”. So 14” sounds great to me. Should be a smooth ride.

On the raptor wearing 35-inch tires, suspension travel measures 14 inches up front, 15 inches at the rear.

and is a very different suspension from the CT, better in some circumstances, not in others.

 

[CYBRSMTH]

Nope, he's letting the bystanders know that manufacturing is not simply flipping a switch, causing millions of trucks to just roll off the line at low cost. Mass producing such a unique vehicle is even more difficult than mass-producing a normal vehicle. And look at the pitiful volumes and high prices of the EV truck competition!

The Cybertruck will be a far better value than the supposed competition, but it won't get there by naysayers standing around saying it's going to be expensive. It will be driven by people figuring out how to build them efficiently and deliver them cheaply. If you don't want to be one of those people, then avoid the temptation to tell those who are doing it that it's an impossible task.

I don’t think people who are saying the CT will be expensive are also saying it’s an impossible task. Clearly the CT is real and the production will be ramped up over the next couple of years. Generally a product is more expensive when it’s low volume and less expensive when it’s high volume. It makes logical sense and has been the way all of Tesla’s vehicles have released and progressed.

 

[Gurule92]

I think that’s wishful thinking. No way Tesla is going to take losses on a brand new product that took them 4+ years to develop. Their stock would tank. There are current drops in deliveries and earnings due to the state of the economy and interest rates. The CT is supposed to help Tesla reach its 2023 goal of selling 1.8 million EVs. They need to make a profit, even if it’s just to recoup R&D costs.

He def said they wouldnt likely be profitable at first. Or something along those lines. They saw the backlash when other companies tried to raise prices a bunch..

 

[jerhenderson]

You can rest assured that any decision I make (about anything) will have nothing to do with you and your opinions Jer ...

ok buddy

 

[jerhenderson]

but that is baked into stock price

this point is this:

• Toyota Market Cap: $289 billion, selling 10.5 million cars a year, or $27,500/vehicle
• Tesla Market Cap (5 days ago): $820 billion, 1.3 million cars, or $683,000/vehicle - 25 times more than Toyota

Which means on a cap basis, if Toyota’s profit margin is 10%, Tesla’s needs to be 250% to justify it’s market cap as reflecting it’s profits per vehicle

If course, Tesla’s market cap factors in (to some minority degree) other things like Optimus.

But compared to Tesla, those things are not making up the 25 times difference in cap-vehicle value compared to Toyota.

Tesla’s better profit margin is in part WHY Tesla’s market cap is 25X larger than Toyota’s on this cap-to-vehicle metric. So making less profit margin per vehicle could effectit’s stock price every bit as much as if Toyota signaled reduced margins. Arguably more, bc that 25X (10% vs 250% margin) is a LOT

so you think Tesla is only a car manufacturer, like Toyota.

 

[Neo]

I should be able to pay in cash by the time my reservation is called ?

 

[charliemagpie]

Tesla is already making loss on the CT in the form of Capital expenditure, R&D and Software Development.

Having a positive impact on the balance sheet doesn't necessarily mean Tesla has to raise margins to cover cost. Tesla just needs to start selling units and ramp up.

What he said doesn't really change anything for me. The question remains the same ....

Will Tesla want to maximize profits .. or will they sell at 'fair' price regardless of the waiting list.

The saga continues......

 

[kbolt]

wonder if all those "bells and whistles" are all consumable items prone to breaking.....I agree it looks like he is setting us up for a bigger starting price than we have calculated......it might be mid 80's before options and 350 mile range......I dont care about bells and whistles.....a lot of that stuff we can get 3rd party....what we cant get.....RANGE.....A range of 350 for me is a show stopper

How did you get $80k? Asking for a friend

 

[kbolt]

I'm predicting < 500 CT deliveries before end of 2023 and between 20,000 to 50,000 CT deliveries before end of 2024.

Tesla/Elon will NOT ramp up CT production until they figure out how to cost effectively mass produce it. Model 3 only had about 50k produced in the first year before they started mass production at the 5,000/week run rate.

On the flip side, my early CT reservation becomes more valuable now

Elon is predicting 150k in 2024... So you're shorting him by 7-3x. That's pretty significant

 

[kbolt]

I think it’s expected to ramp to 250,000 by 2025. I’d say it’ll take 5-7 years if everyone keeps their reservation. I don’t think they will once the price and timing are revealed, so maybe more like 3 to 5 years. I’m imagining reservations drop by half, but that’s still a lot of money to be had.

You're only looking at initial demand for people who placed orders before the release. NASA will by CTs for the moon and Mars. Israel and Ukraine (government and citizens) will want to get the vehicle as well. Drug cartels will want it. Once people start seeing them on the streets regular folks will want it. Once it gets on job sites manual laborers will want it. Once international orders are opened again, they will want it. There is probably a 20 year backlog for this product at the currently proposed 250k run rate, the log just hasn't been filled out yet.

 

[Jedi2155]

Elon is predicting 150k in 2024... So you're shorting him by 7-3x. That's pretty significant

125,000 "run-rate" is not the same as 125,000.

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