Elon reveals Cybertruck details / production expectations on Q3 2023 call

[Coolbreeze704]

Dang, at 221 per share we are only up 105% YTD.
/s

So tempted to not wait for payday and tap into a little margin today,


but I'll wait.

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[Tinker71]

I'm predicting < 500 CT deliveries before end of 2023 and between 20,000 to 50,000 CT deliveries before end of 2024.

Tesla/Elon will NOT ramp up CT production until they figure out how to cost effectively mass produce it. Model 3 only had about 50k produced in the first year before they started mass production at the 5,000/week run rate.

On the flip side, my early CT reservation becomes more valuable now

No the ramp will pretty much go like Elon said. He is hedging already. They could exceed run rates getting to 125K per year in 2024.

 

[MEWoodsMFG]

I noticed TSLA Stock priced dropped pretty heavy today. This was before the Investor call. I wonder if stock prices will drop even further. Things that investors don't like to hear are things like new product is not going to be profitable for 12-18 months...

I hope the price does drop, it's an opportunity to buy as many shares as you can afford.

 

[PilotPete]

Remember this one thing when listening to the call. This is a Wall Street/shareholders financial overview. This is not a “rah-rah” sales reveal. As the CEO, think about what you would want to say to the financial world, not what you want to say to those with deposits on CTs. Nov 30 will be the day to focus on the CT and all the features and get all excited. As an example, stating the CT will run at a loss for 12-18 months tells you absolutely nothing about the price, unless you know about the costs to build, and R&D costs, and how Tesla is folding the costs of the GigaPress and assembly line, and factory space, and the people costs into the books. Without that information, you’re clueless. They could sell at $100 each, or $100,000 each and still lose money for the first 18 months. If they buy 2 more GigaPresses in the next year to ramp up production, then the costs are going to skyrocket in the short term and create additional profit in the long term. We don’t have enough information, and we never will.

 

[cvalue13]

If they buy 2 more GigaPresses in the next year to ramp up production, then the costs are going to skyrocket in the short term and create additional profit in the long term. We don’t have enough information, and we never will.

agree with the post, and adding only to this last bit (understanding it was an example)

the existing gigapresses have a capacity of roughly 250K per year, and we should expect that is what this line is built to. so when musk says reaching a run-rate of 250K/yr sometime in 2025, he's saying this line wont be up to it's full capcity until 2025.

to increase capacity past this ~250k, will require supplementing the line with at least a second set of gigapresses, and possibly an entirely 2nd CT line (which would put max CT capacity at 500k)

given the above, backing into the CT line being currently described as having only 125K capacity (despite what the line capacity maxes at), signals basically some other parts/manufacturing constraint - e.g., batteries (either in number, or density), or another material and complex part constraint (e.g., something to do with the motors/inverters, etc.)

 

[MEWoodsMFG]

This was a bad day for Elon and Tesla. I'm rethinking the whole Cybertruck purchase and will consider other options. This mess is directly attributable to Elon Musk. He over committed and has yet to deliver on what he continues to call Tesla's best product.

He or the BOD needs to find a CEO to run Tesla like a real business. This startup, sleeping in the factory, 18 hour a day CEO needs to move to an advisory role and let other more capable people manage the companies finances, communications and product development.

I don't think It was a bad day at all, or even unexpected, but you are entitled to your take no matter how incorrect I think your take is.

 

[rodmacpherson]

I don’t think he’s setting it up to be expensive. I think he’s setting it up to not be profitable or as profitable as it can be until they get to max capacity and best workflow. They cant make it as expensive as a S or X because that has a very limited audience and they’ll lose lots of orders.

He's tempering the investors excitement by saying it won’t be hugely profitable at first. But had tons of potential.

especially since the STARTING expected production of 125k per year is more than the S and X combined.

 

[MEWoodsMFG]

When has Elon ever been right about the timing of anything Tesla has built? He is always off by orders of magnitude. If the stock tanks (and it might) Tesla with their already significantly reduced vehicle margins will look even worse. Not a pretty picture.

No offense, but you sound as if you get your investing advice from Jim Cramer.
The mainstream financial pundits want you to focus on the margins. In the long run, the margins from quarter to quarter don't matter, Tesla are miles more profitable than any other car company making BEVs.
Getting as many cars and trucks out the door to collect data to make FSD and robotaxi a reality is what will make Tesla investors wealthy in the next 7 to 10 years.
It's all about autonomy.

 

[TTz]

Sounded to me like he was preparing investors to expect losses on CT sales for a while. Which could imply affordability

more likely …a balance….moderately higher price and moderately longer run to profitability.
If the price goes up too much, the majority of the million reservations will not become sales.
Like everything nowadays, the price will be market driven.

 

[AustroTom]

Does it come with a HORN(?)
'Toot toot, hey, beep beep' ( Donna Summer )

This is what kind of dampens my enthusiasm. All I ever wanted was a EV truck that has a
>long range,
>towing power,
>foldable front mid-seat,
>towable four down
>and fifth wheel towing capability.
All those "intricate" things he's throwing at it (which is part of the insane delay), makes it not even the first ev pickup truck anymore.
Who needs four wheel steering, 14" of travel, tank mode for off-roading, bullet proof body, etc. etc.
But that's me....

 

[ninja6r]

given the above, backing into the CT line being currently described as having only 125K capacity (despite what the line capacity maxes at), signals basically some other parts/manufacturing constraint - e.g., batteries (either in number, or density), or another material and complex part constraint (e.g., something to do with the motors/inverters, etc.)

It's for sure the batteries.

 

[cvalue13]

It's defintely the batteries.

It's definitely the batteries.

But can be batteries and *also* other things.

Wouldn't be something trivial like trim pieces or SS, because those can be solved for if only by 3rd party vendors.

Would be instead something as internal and with complexity and manufacturing/performance constraints, as is the case with the batteries.

In theory, this could be the gigapress. Could be it's not churning out spec pieces as well/quickly a hoped. But this could be true, and yet unlikely for it to result in an outlook extending into 2025 (because they'd surely think they could get the gigga dialed in more quickly, even if there's some time into early 2024 needed).

Instead I'd think it's something more critical in the drive trains of the vehicle; maybe especially if it's got core parts shared with Model Y or 3, meaning they can't simply cannibalize Y/3 sales in order to make CT sales, but instead have to - eg - start making a LOT more [motors] than normal.

 

[CyberJustice]

I think it’s expected to ramp to 250,000 by 2025. I’d say it’ll take 5-7 years if everyone keeps their reservation. I don’t think they will once the price and timing are revealed, so maybe more like 3 to 5 years. I’m imagining reservations drop by half, but that’s still a lot of money to be had.

the demand is extremely high, these will easily sell double the price until they hit mass production.

 

[PilotPete]

No offense, but you sound as if you get your investing advice from Jim Cramer.
The mainstream financial pundits want you to focus on the margins. In the long run, the margins from quarter to quarter don't matter, Tesla are miles more profitable than any other car company making BEVs.
Getting as many cars and trucks out the door to collect data to make FSD and robotaxi a reality is what will make Tesla investors wealthy in the next 7 to 10 years.
It's all about autonomy.

Here is the biggest issue I see with snake oil salesmen like Cramer. Tesla is not a car company. (Say what?!?!) They are an energy company, vertically integrated from production, to storage, to end user products that use their energy. Take a look at Ford. What is Ford’s significant impact in the refining industry? What about large scale tank storage? Are they advocating for little mini refineries? How much of their money is in drilling and pumping crude? How about that Ford Semi? Tesla is an energy company. And until these myopic blowhards can see past the cars and see the company as a whole (as opposed to GM, which currently is a hole) the stock will be undervalued. Oh, but there is more. Dojo and the D1 chip. Their first in house processor and it is kicking the backside of NVidia’s fastest. And not just marginally. The delta isn’t measured in Percentage, it is measured in 3X and 4X and in some functions 10X. And the data Tesla has and the storage they have created for this data, and the analysis they can do with this data. This means TSLA is a hybrid between and Energy company, A hardware Tech like NVidia, and a data company like AWS. That is nothing to belittle. That is the future of this company.

But sure, look at the margins on the MY and compare it to GM and Ford. That will tell you the value…

Not.

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