Elon reveals Cybertruck details / production expectations on Q3 2023 call

[Foxx]

This is normal for many companies, and almost always true for tesla. They'll bounce back.

I’m a December 2019 reservation. I will be purchasing more stock with my CT savings.

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[hqmp]

As for price point and profitability. It’s essential that the Cybertruck be priced not to lose money out if the gate (of course development costs have to be amortized over expected life) but.
I remember another Radical new concept Vehicle.

That's not how Elon thinks at all. He was very clear that the Cybertruck will not be profitable at first. He has been very clear that he will drop prices for other vehicles and even lose a little money if necessary. Other companies may insist that every product must make money on its own, but that's definitely not how Tesla works. Elon plays the long game, and uses Tesla as an integrated whole, where failure is a virtue, as the successes that come out of failure is greater than just playing it safe.

 

[Bkent100]

After reading Twitter commentary I decided to listed to the show. Very disappointing presentation. I understand he’s a genius and doesn’t believe in scripts but saying “we’ve dug our grave” is just unacceptable for a someone in his position.
Compared to earlier optimism he sounded depressed about the whole thing, so one can assume that the product coming off the line is a disappointment with much development ahead. Not a good sign for early adopters.
There were many other trigger words in his remarks that will have the stock tanking. Down 5% yesterday and another 6.5% premarket. Yes Tesla has terrible swings but this is just self-inflicted. Very sad.

Completely agree… he may be a genius… but he sucks at speaking and presentations.

 

[cvalue13]

Side note: I was under impression that there were over 2M reservations. Elon just said over 1M reservations. I know 2 is more than one and technically both can be true but why would he under brag? is it closer to 1 or 2?

Who knows. I find him to be pretty imprecise at times.

same time, since they’re only delivering to US maybe he’s quoting only the relevant portion of the reservations

or maybe the independent guesses of 2M haven’t been accurate guess-work

 

[JBee]

There's at least a million orders in Australia. I made sure of that personally.

But seriously I think the amount of orders is probably not as relevant as how many will be made. Proportionally, they are predicting producing way less than the orders per year, by order of magnitude, and that should really be concerning, in that if anything, when this hits the streets we can expect orders will go up and not down.

That means they either have real supply/manufacturing issues, or EM is worried about GFC 2.0 and another credit crunch, which will crush demand. Or both.

The way he was talking, and brought the finance subject up 3 times, makes me think he knows what's brewing in the background, and doesn't want to be in a position of loosing control. For example, while the middle east is going nuts and is occupying the world stage, there might be more moves being made further east, that could really stuff up chip availability. It's all in close proximity there. Electric cars everywhere don't work without those in any way.

 

[PilotPete]

The way he was talking, and brought the finance subject up 3 times, makes me think he knows what's brewing in the background, and doesn't want to be in a position of loosing control.

Word on the street is that the fed is looking at another 25 or even 50 points increase at the next meeting.

 

[WHIZZARD OF OZ]

the demand is extremely high, these will easily sell double the price until they hit mass production.

RJ Scaringe reversed the decision to up the cost of the first R1T 24 hours after raising prices, in some cases ~$20K
It was clear that half the reservation holders cancelling sent a clear message.
I don't expect shenanigans of this nature with the CT at the end of November.

 

[JBee]

Word on the street is that the fed is looking at another 25 or even 50 points increase at the next meeting.

So what's the plan then, print more money AND raise interest to control the resulting inflation? That's just nuts and makes no sense, as it just further dilutes the base and adds nothing to stability. I've said this before, in peace time, the only freedom is an economic one, you can only afford to do things you want to do, if you have a way to pay for it. In this case finance is the only method to purchase large things, because there are no meaningful savings left. Once you loose that ability to trade, without finance providing liquidity, it's takers keepers. Same cycle, different actors. Just as stupid. So apparently EM's glum mood and outlook is justified then, for multiple reasons.

 

[Sirfun]

Are you going through with both if specs and price is good?

A couple different options. My first reservation was 39,000 on the first night. So option 1 is to buy it and when reservation #2 comes up, sell #1 for a profit to pay for upgrades on #2.

Another possibility is to keep both because we have a household of 6 with 4 vehicles now. I have a mother in law and special needs son that could both use a CT with FSD. Plus my wife and I. Also I'm hoping to use a CT for V2H, with solar and a powerwall. So with 2 CTs that would work better. This is my favorite choice.

Since I reserved my 1st one almost 4 years ago. I've been able to invest and save enough to pay cash for one CT, and my wife's Pacifica is 3 years old, so when #2 reservation comes around the timing should be alright for an upgrade to another CT.

 

[WHIZZARD OF OZ]

Side note: I was under impression that there were over 2M reservations. Elon just said over 1M reservations. I know 2 is more than one and technically both can be true but why would he under brag? is it closer to 1 or 2?

Elon was referring to the people in the CT queue! As for how many have more than 1 reservation, time will tell. One holder has 52 for a ROBOTAXI plan. That was my thinking two weeks after placing the Day 1 res......realised l could have had 10 for $1500 in Aussie money! Silly Boy!

 

[GuyV]

It's definitely the batteries.

But can be batteries and *also* other things.

Wouldn't be something trivial like trim pieces or SS, because those can be solved for if only by 3rd party vendors.

Would be instead something as internal and with complexity and manufacturing/performance constraints, as is the case with the batteries.

In theory, this could be the gigapress. Could be it's not churning out spec pieces as well/quickly a hoped. But this could be true, and yet unlikely for it to result in an outlook extending into 2025 (because they'd surely think they could get the gigga dialed in more quickly, even if there's some time into early 2024 needed).

Instead I'd think it's something more critical in the drive trains of the vehicle; maybe especially if it's got core parts shared with Model Y or 3, meaning they can't simply cannibalize Y/3 sales in order to make CT sales, but instead have to - eg - start making a LOT more [motors] than normal.

The rear castings are piling up outside the factory and not going to scrap, so that is a good sign in that regard.

 

[Cyberman]

Is that a lot? It seems like a lot, but I'm not sure what this really means.

It's 2" lower than what we were told. 'Twas 16"! That was impressive. 14"? A little less so. But still in badass territory!

 

[Crissa]

It's 2" lower than what we were told. 'Twas 16"! That was impressive. 14"? A little less so. But still in badass territory!

14" 'travel' isn't the same as 'clearance' so... Maybe it's two inches shorter but we dunno?

14" clearance is still pretty good clearance.

-Crissa

 

[CYBRSMTH]

He def said they wouldnt likely be profitable at first. Or something along those lines. They saw the backlash when other companies tried to raise prices a bunch..

I think Elon is worried that if they price it too high it won’t sell due to high interest rates and people will cancel their reservations or try to sell them.

On the other hand, if they lower the price too much for the sake of affordability they’ll be taking massive losses on a brand new vehicle, which as far as I know is the first time this would be happening to them. Tesla always had the highest margins in the industry. Now they’re falling below 8%. If this continues they’ll end up like Ford and be losing billions.

The direction Tesla seems to be trying to go in is volume production, but on a specialty vehicle this can’t be done instantly or even ever regardless of the demand, think S and X. Also, selling something for less and then raising the price later on is generally not the way volume production works. It’s also something customers don’t like. Most people want price stability with their investment holding its value, not prices attached to market value, which is really volatile right now.

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