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TheLastStarfighter

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Man there are some serious mental gymnastics going on to justify rainbow road range here.
There are those of us on here (myself included) that really have a use case where the original holy grail 500 mile truck lived.
If JBree is correct and I have good reason to belive he is then even at 168kWh the truck is going to be in the high 300/low 400 range based on what some have deduced about the range of the 120 +- 5 kWh and resulting range that ALL TRUCKS for the foreseeable future will be sold with.

Its clear that this truck is much heavier and much less efficient than Tesla hoped for. Considering the 4 years they had to work on the truck i feel pretty confident that a 500 mile range version may not come to this platform, ever. Another version down the road? Maybe but as more and more charging pops up less people will demand it.


Personally I am really looking forward to the 12/1 fireworks if this debate is any indication.
I haven't seen JBree say that 168kWh would get you high 300's, but if he did that's not accurate. More like mid to high 400s. If 120kWh gets you around 320 miles, a 40% increase in capacity is going go get you more than a few extra miles.

I think everyone concerned should take a deep breath and enjoy the show on reveal day. There will probably be some disappointing things, but also some great things. Something that gets little discussion here is the ability of the new battery to gain (charge rate) and release (power/performance) energy, and that will impact the need for battery size for many. Tesla has also explicitly said this is gen 1 of 4680 cells, and they expect gen 3 by 2025 with more than 20% greater density. So a 320 mile truck today would be a 380+ mile truck by the time most of us get one, even with the same size pack.
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scottf200

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I think a lot of the confusion surrounding the 2019 trims vs what is now (presumably) being released comes from the fact that in 2019, Tesla named the variants by motor number, rather than range. It made sense at the time, assuming they had originally intended that each variant would have a unique pack. If they had instead named them by pack size/range, we could have had a short range, standard range, and long range, which in 2019 would have had 1, 2, and 3 motors respectively. Using those terms instead, what it looks like we are getting on Nov 30 would be a standard range (which will have 2 motors), and a standard range performance (which will have 3 motors).

I don't see the "short range" ever coming to fruition to be honest. I just don't see a market for a sub 300 mile truck. If tesla can keep the pricing of the base "standard range" version under 60k, I think it will probably outsell all of the other current BEV offerings by a good amount and will easily have enough buyers as they ramp. BUT.... If they want to compete with ICE trucks, they will need to offer the Long range version. And to eventually sell 200k/year, ICE trucks are the real competition.
Thank you. I think this wording helped change my minds-eye perspective that was trapped in motor count focus.

range below = miles_per_kWh * usable_kWh
[usable_kWh could be all of battery or same battery but software limited like past examples]
  • short range [a]
  • standard range [ b ]
    • 2 motor trim - regular performance
    • 3 motor trim - beast performance
  • long range [ c ]

    [ a ] something like 200-300 mile range
    [ b ] something like 300-400 mile range
    [ c ] something like 400-500 mile range
 

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I haven't seen JBree say that 168kWh would get you high 300's, but if he did that's not accurate. More like mid to high 400s. If 120kWh gets you around 320 miles, a 40% increase in capacity is going go get you more than a few extra miles.

I think everyone concerned should take a deep breath and enjoy the show on reveal day. There will probably be some disappointing things, but also some great things. Something that gets little discussion here is the ability of the new battery to gain (charge rate) and release (power/performance) energy, and that will impact the need for battery size for many. Tesla has also explicitly said this is gen 1 of 4680 cells, and they expect gen 3 by 2025 with more than 20% greater density. So a 320 mile truck today would be a 380+ mile truck by the time most of us get one, even with the same size pack.

I believe he said that was the max fit pack size.
 

cvalue13

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But I’m not impressed with the interior shots.
I’m currently in a ‘21 Silverado 1500 crew cab. Was hopping for similar roominess.
as others have said, but to frame differently:

  • someone coming from a mid-sized truck will get a noticeable upgrade in interior space, but especially cargo room, and about the same agility - at the cost of only a bit of larger exterior footprint
  • someone instead coming from a standard full-sized truck, will get a noticeable upgrade in agility, AND an upgrade in cargo room (except for and excluding compared to the Lightning) - at the cost of only a noticeable reduction in interior room

as Musk put it (though others here have long discussed), the cybertruck purports to offer a 'Goldilocks' category of truck

which to me is a compelling thesis overall.

the exceptions, who wont find it compelling, are (A) people moving from midsized trucks who can't tolerate the slightly larger exterior footprint, and (B) people moving from fullsized trucks who can't tolerate the slightly smaller interior dimensions

can't win 'em all
 

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Thank you. That's exactly what i came away with seeing the video. Not only does the space look tight, but the wonky angles of the CT make the interior feel even more claustrophobic. Both front and rear door windows look view compromised. Been waiting years for this truck, was bummed by no 6th seat, but this is the first time im feeling a little cold feet. Will have to sit in one b4 i pull the trigger on my purchase. Not to mention what price and range will be revealed.
I cuncur. The missing 6th seat is a definite bummer. I’ll have to try it on for size before pulling the trigger.
 


Moose_km

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as others have said, but to frame differently:

  • someone coming from a mid-sized truck will get a noticeable upgrade in interior space, but especially cargo room, and about the same agility - at the cost of only a bit of larger exterior footprint
  • someone instead coming from a standard full-sized truck, will get a noticeable upgrade in agility, AND an upgrade in cargo room (except for and excluding compared to the Lightning) - at the cost of only a noticeable reduction in interior room

as Musk put it (though others here have long discussed), the cybertruck purports to offer a 'Goldilocks' category of truck

which to me is a compelling thesis overall.

the exceptions, who wont find it compelling, are (A) people moving from midsized trucks who can't tolerate the slightly larger exterior footprint, and (B) people moving from fullsized trucks who can't tolerate the slightly smaller interior dimensions

can't win 'em all
Very well. Thanks for those words. Where I shall fall I’m anxiously awaiting.
 

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I cuncur. The missing 6th seat is a definite bummer. I’ll have to try it on for size before pulling the trigger.
This was the only thing my wife wanted out of it (she misses sitting next to me on a bench seat).

Otherwise she hates the CT. :(
 

TheLastStarfighter

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I believe he said that was the max fit pack size.
I could see that. But the CT weighs less than the Rivian, and the Rivian gets over 400 miles with smaller pack than that. And if that's the max pack with current densities, than by Gen 3 the capacity would be higher in a year or two.

For what it's worth, I think the max CT pack will be less than that number based on current densities, but I do think at some point they will hit around 175kWh for a long range truck.
 

TheLastStarfighter

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This was the only thing my wife wanted out of it (she misses sitting next to me on a bench seat).

Otherwise she hates the CT. :(
I'm almost 100% you will get a 6th seat at some point, just not at launch. Like the 7 seat Model Y, it will come later. And like the Y it will be small and almost useless, but it will be offered. And your wife will be happy to be able to get frisky with you on the long drives.
 

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I believe he said that was the max fit pack size.
Yep

It should at least be on par with R1T Dual Motor, which is rated at 363 Wh/mi, Tesla likely can beat that, so a 170 to 180 kWh pack can hit 500 miles, maybe even smaller

If you upscale a Model X efficiency for the weight and size we have, you arrive at 367 Wh/km, but that was with the dimensions of the original prototype
 


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I think a lot of the confusion surrounding the 2019 trims vs what is now (presumably) being released comes from the fact that in 2019, Tesla named the variants by motor number, rather than range. It made sense at the time, assuming they had originally intended that each variant would have a unique pack. If they had instead named them by pack size/range, we could have had a short range, standard range, and long range, which in 2019 would have had 1, 2, and 3 motors respectively. Using those terms instead, what it looks like we are getting on Nov 30 would be a standard range (which will have 2 motors), and a standard range performance (which will have 3 motors).

I don't see the "short range" ever coming to fruition to be honest. I just don't see a market for a sub 300 mile truck. If tesla can keep the pricing of the base "standard range" version under 60k, I think it will probably outsell all of the other current BEV offerings by a good amount and will easily have enough buyers as they ramp. BUT.... If they want to compete with ICE trucks, they will need to offer the Long range version. And to eventually sell 200k/year, ICE trucks are the real competition.
If the standard range is around 400 miles and they sell it for $60k, there's a huge market for that. 300-ish and 60k, I just don't see a 200k/yr market for that version.

We have to remember the market for new vehicles isn't huge and this thing is POLARIZING to say the least. If Tesla can't get a long range out within a year, I actually do think they're going to struggle selling this. Not the first year or two, but definitely after.

When the F150 comes out with the Tesla plug and if Ford can get close to the same price/range (BIG if, I know) I think that's better news for Ford. But IMO, Tesla is it's own market right now. No one can match them on EV production. I hate that I check this website daily, because as we get closer I get more disappointed with what leaks (only range related). :LOL:
 

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Doesn't look like there would be much space in the back for legroom when seats folded back down?
I'm much more worried about this than range. Unfortunately the thread was hijacked by range ?
 

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Spotted by @lqvasser and @BenChrispinb











Screenshot 2023-11-14 at 6.55.33 PM.jpg



img_4235-jpeg.webp




Screenshot 2023-11-14 at 6.56.30 PM.jpg


F-7SgB1boAAKKhH.png



After doing some rough math and admitting that Tesla’s trip advisor is not the most accurate thing in the world, YouTuber Tailosive predicts that the EPA will rate the range of at least one of the CTs at just over 300 miles. It’s a guess, but might be for the lower-end model? His argument was if the CT was predicted to use 6% of its battery in the next 16 miles then the battery would not have a range of 500 miles.
 

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If the standard range is around 400 miles and they sell it for $60k, there's a huge market for that. 300-ish and 60k, I just don't see a 200k/yr market for that version.

We have to remember the market for new vehicles isn't huge and this thing is POLARIZING to say the least. If Tesla can't get a long range out within a year, I actually do think they're going to struggle selling this. Not the first year or two, but definitely after.

When the F150 comes out with the Tesla plug and if Ford can get close to the same price/range (BIG if, I know) I think that's better news for Ford. But IMO, Tesla is it's own market right now. No one can match them on EV production. I hate that I check this website daily, because as we get closer I get more disappointed with what leaks (only range related). :LOL:
spoiler art; Ford won’t. Not profitably at least. Any amount of research in the engineering of ford vs tesla vehicles makes this quite clear.
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