2024 annual delivery predictions: Troy Teslike, others?

[scottf200]

I could[n't] find a good thread for this so started one. There are some good predictors out there. I'll add others as people mention them or I run across them perhap.

Troy Teslike:

2024: 36100 (1700+4800+9900+19700) via X/Twitter post.​

Other Tesla Retail analysts to note. Purple rectangle.

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[donnyb]

With as many invites that went out for a delivery of Jan-Mar. A lot of people are going to be disappointed if only 1700 CT are produced in Q1.

 

[Longranger]

What is the source of this data?

 

[donnyb]

What is the source of this data?

Looks like an estimate from an analyst.

 

[scottf200]

What is the source of this data?

Looks like an estimate from an analyst.

I provided the URL / link in my post. He is very well known and has a good track record on other Tesla cars. Unclear how Cybertruck predictions will come out.

 

[cvalue13]

With as many invites that went out for a delivery of Jan-Mar. A lot of people are going to be disappointed if only 1700 CT are produced in Q1.

as many that *seemed* to go out

we don’t know how many. Nor how many converted

meanwhile, since Jan 1 they’ve built ~400 trucks

so, 1700 delivered isnt a bad prediction, horseshoes and hand-grenades - which is about all the resolution analysts need

And ~34K for the year would be basically SOP for the 1st 4 quarters after delivery event (based on prior ramps)

 

[cvalue13]

I could find a good thread for this so stated one. There are some good predictors out there. I'll add others as people mention them or I run across them perhap.

Troy Teslike:

2024: 36100 (1700+4800+9900+19700) via X/Twitter post.​

@newwave1331 ole’ @scottf200 on the back porch again

 

[cvalue13]

What is the source of this data?

the guy who in Jan ‘23 was within 1% of what turned out to be 2023 actuals

??‍

 

[HaulingAss]

Looks like an estimate from an analyst.

It's a WAG (wild ass guess) and is no more credible than any other knowledgable person because the Cybertruck is just starting to ramp, and there is very little to go on.

I think Cybertruck numbers will start out slow, perhaps roughly in line with Troy's guesses for the first two or three quarters, but will jump to much higher levels than Troys guesses, either in Q3 or, more likely, in Q4 of this year.

Let's see who is more correct, a "reliable and trusted source of information" or the number I pulled out of my butt. Because it really is just a wild ass guess, no matter who is doing the guessing.

 

[Arctic_White]

the guy who in Jan ‘23 was within 1% of what turned out to be 2023 actuals

??‍

A broken clock is still right twice per day, or so the saying goes.

I've followed Troy for a while and his predictions, while good, are to be taken with a grain of salt. He has been spectacularly wrong in the past, and the fact that you haven't acknowledge that tells me that either a) you haven't followed him as closely or b) you are only looking at the things that he got mostly right. So which is it?

Troy also thinks 2.06M total production for 2024. I'm at 2.2M total production. Let's see who is more "right" come Jan '25.

BTW, I ain't an analyst, just a random joker on the internet. My point is that don't believe the "analysts" as they are more wrong than right.

 

[Arctic_White]

It's a WAG (wild ass guess) and is no more credible than any other knowledgable person because the Cybertruck is just starting to ramp, and there is very little to go on.

I think Cybertruck numbers will start out slow, perhaps roughly in line with Troy's guesses for the first two or three quarters, but will jump to much higher levels than Troys guesses, either in Q3 or, more likely, in Q4 of this year.

Let's see who is more correct, a "reliable and trusted source of information" or the number I pulled out of my butt. Because it really is just a wild ass guess, no matter who is doing the guessing.

Troy is very good at compiling data but not so good at knowing the future.

Case in point: his 2024 prediction for what Tesla will produce for the full year. I mean sure, he could be right. But the so-called and self-proclaimed "expert" is anything but.

WAG indeed.

 

[cvalue13]

BTW, I ain't an analyst, just a random joker on the internet. My point is that don't believe the "analysts" as they are more wrong than right.

that’s irrelevant

The relevant question is whether analysts are less wrong than right than eg armchair xwitter influenzas


because that’s the relevant question - limited as it is in importance - at issue here

Whatever the limitations of a good analyst’s info or track record, the question is whether that’s better than the average Joe’s emotional guess, half-as-good intellectual rigor, or - for that matter - track record



meanwhile, I’m not just giving some fractional credence to this analyst’s rough horseshoes-and-handgrenade prediction in a vacuum

there are independent facts to which that prediction appears to align, which only furthers - but not perfects - the prediction

like what?

36K in first 4 quarters post delivery event is basically the obvious expectation based on Tesla history.

and for every armchair observation that “Tesla is better at ramping” are a Tesla/Musk comment about how ramping the CT will be HARDER not EASIER than prior ramps - so if anything getting to eg 40K units in first 4 Q’s WOULD be Tesla evidencing its experience (by doing a HARDER ramp in SIMILAR time as earlier and easier ramps).

but I’ll admit some bias here:

for a year the hopium fueled Cybertruck delusion has been a parade of bizarre production expectations. All of those delusions have done nothing but met with contrary reality, time after time.

so contrary to this analyst prediction of 36k, if it’s instead 60k, ok cool - great.

but analysts like this are primarily getting shouted down by armchair delusions of eg 50,000 in 2024, 125K in 2024, and outselling the F150 globally by 2026.

THAT’s what’s bananas

 

[Arctic_White]

that’s irrelevant

The relevant question is whether analysts are less wrong than right than eg armchair xwitter influenzas


because that’s the relevant question - limited as it is in importance - at issue here

Whatever the limitations of a good analyst’s info or track record, the question is whether that’s better than the average Joe’s emotional guess, half-as-good intellectual rigor, or - for that matter - track record



meanwhile, I’m not just giving some fractional credence to this analyst’s rough horseshoes-and-handgrenade prediction in a vacuum

there are independent facts to which that prediction appears to align, which only furthers - but not perfects - the prediction

like what?

36K in first 4 quarters post delivery event is basically the obvious expectation based on Tesla history.

and for every armchair observation that “Tesla is better at ramping” are a Tesla/Musk comment about how ramping the CT will be HARDER not EASIER than prior ramps - so if anything getting to eg 40K units in first 4 Q’s WOULD be Tesla evidencing its experience (by doing a HARDER ramp in SIMILAR time as earlier and easier ramps).

but I’ll admit some bias here:

for a year the hopium fueled Cybertruck delusion has been a parade of bizarre production expectations. All of those delusions have done nothing but met with contrary reality, time after time.

so contrary to this analyst prediction of 36k, if it’s instead 60k, ok cool - great.

but analysts like this are primarily getting shouted down by armchair delusions of eg 50,000 in 2024, 125K in 2024, and outselling the F150 globally by 2026.

THAT’s what’s bananas

Either you deliberately or by accident missed my main point: Troy has been proven wrong more times than he is right.

Troy is best at compiling sources and coming up with a very good estimate close to the quarter. He is terrible at guessing earlier in the quarter and he continues to revise his #s to get closer to the truth.

Regarding his prediction for the Cybertruck, he may be right. He might actually be right. But that doesn't change my point about him just guessing.

I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla only makes 15K Cybertrucks in 2024 nor would it shock me if they make 60K Cybertrucks. I think they will get to 30K or so myself, but again, that's just my guess.

What bothers me is how so many folks take Troy's number at face value and you yourself suggested that he was only off by "1 percent" implying that somehow he knows more than the random person on the internet (the joker, me).

You can either admit to being wrong about claiming that Troy has more info (1% margin of error) or not. But the facts remain: you're falling for the narrative rather than looking at facts objectively. So which is it?

 

[cvalue13]

You can either admit to being wrong about claiming that Troy has more info (1% margin of error) or not. But the facts remain: you're falling for the narrative rather than looking at facts objectively. So which is it?

I guess if people don’t understand what analysts do, I wasn’t talking to them

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