Production Rate Seems Insanely Slow?

[theholyrice]

I ordered on Jan 10 and have been checking this site daily lol...and I noticed that Tesla is still delivering to customers who ordered on Dec. 9 2023, which is roughly the first 200 orders on the orders list. I thought Tesla has reached 50 trucks per day production rate a while ago? Even if they only make 10 Cybertrucks per day the first 200 should have been all delivered by Dec. 20 (20 days since Nov. 30 delivery event). So either there are more than 20x orders out there that are not registered on this site (24,000 Foundations Series, first 200 on list means 4000 actual orders and 4000/50 = 80 days), or Tesla has been producing at 3 Cybertrucks per day (Nov.30 - Feb 15 = 77 days), which also seems ridiculous. Can someone please chime in? Am I going crazy or is my math wrong??

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[Kiborg]

Your math is wrong.

 

[LonelyCTfan]

I ordered on Jan 10 and have been checking this site daily lol...and I noticed that Tesla is still delivering to customers who ordered on Dec. 9 2023, which is roughly the first 200 orders on the orders list. I thought Tesla has reached 50 trucks per day production rate a while ago? Even if they only make 10 Cybertrucks per day the first 200 should have been all delivered by Dec. 20 (20 days since Nov. 30 delivery event). So either there are more than 20x orders out there that are not registered on this site (24,000 Foundations Series, first 200 on list means 4000 actual orders and 4000/50 = 80 days), or Tesla has been producing at 3 Cybertrucks per day (Nov.30 - Feb 15 = 77 days), which also seems ridiculous. Can someone please chime in? Am I going crazy or is my math wrong??

Well, I would think production was slow if I didn't watch them rolling off the line daily on videos. I believe there was a pause for something, I'm hoping battery chemistry or something positive. Also the correlation to reported orders here and real life is not truly obtainable but only assumed.

 

[seadsmoney]

there are more than 20x orders out there that are not registered on this site

Roughly 13x

 

[Cybertruck 1974]

I ordered 12/22/23 and was told yesterday when I asked a Tesla employee at Dublin, CA when I would see a truck, they laughed and said so so sorry. Literally said, "so so sorry, maybe end of year or 2025". ?Only delivering so far to 12/8 and 12/9 orders and employees first." literally came out of their mouth

 

[mark555055c]

We have up to 12/28 orders receiving VINs now. They are producing probably 30-50 per day right now it appears. I do expect this to increase daily now and in the next two weeks we should see Jan orders start to get VINs, then two weeks or so after that, some Jan orders start to get delivered.

 

[mark555055c]

I ordered 12/22/23 and was told yesterday when I asked a Tesla employee at Dublin, CA when I would see a truck, they laughed and said so so sorry. Literally said, "so so sorry, maybe end of year or 2025". ?Only delivering so far to 12/8 and 12/9 orders and employees first." literally came out of their mouth

There is a 0.0 percent chance that FS orders that are already in would not be delivered until "end of year or 2025". If we want to account for nuclear wars and asteroids hitting the earth, then we can make that a 0.00000000001 percent chance.

 

[defrostedcanuck]

We have up to 12/28 orders receiving VINs now. They are producing probably 30-50 per day right now it appears. I do expect this to increase daily now and in the next two weeks we should see Jan orders start to get VINs, then two weeks or so after that, some Jan orders start to get delivered.

What locations are getting VINs for 12/28? That is me but in AZ

 

[carsly]

This is how S curve ramps work. Generally look flat for the first bit, then things slowly accelerate, then they quickly accelerate, then it hyperscales before levelling off again.

Q1 was going to feel like a flattish line. Q2 will look a little bit better but not 5-10x. Q3/Q4 we should enter the part where the curve starts to kick up and by Q1/Q2 2025 production should be humming.

I also think they need to get GigaMexico up and running and it's more likely than not (despite the Tesla denials) that a refreshed Model Y is in testing and it wouldn't surprise me if there is a late 2024/early 2025 refresh coming on Model S/X to add the interior LED lighting and other niceties. Keep in mind the Palladium refresh on S/X was in Fall 2021 with the prior Raven light-refresh coming in 2019. If Rivian does indeed drop a 1,200 HP quad-Enduro R1 in April or August (two line refreshes scheduled for 2024) then I'd expect Tesla to roll out the next-gen S/X before year-end.

Oh, and let's not forget the Model 3 Performance that has not yet launched.

It's busy days at Tesla, and that doesn't even include the impending Model 2 or whatever you want to call the cheapo Tesla.

 

[mark555055c]

What locations are getting VINs for 12/28? That is me but in AZ

I believe they were Florida from a couple folks on Twitter/X. I'll have to see if i can find the posts again.

 

[Gigahorse]

I ordered on Jan 10 and have been checking this site daily lol...and I noticed that Tesla is still delivering to customers who ordered on Dec. 9 2023, which is roughly the first 200 orders on the orders list. I thought Tesla has reached 50 trucks per day production rate a while ago? Even if they only make 10 Cybertrucks per day the first 200 should have been all delivered by Dec. 20 (20 days since Nov. 30 delivery event). So either there are more than 20x orders out there that are not registered on this site (24,000 Foundations Series, first 200 on list means 4000 actual orders and 4000/50 = 80 days), or Tesla has been producing at 3 Cybertrucks per day (Nov.30 - Feb 15 = 77 days), which also seems ridiculous. Can someone please chime in? Am I going crazy or is my math wrong??

There are two camps.

1. WOW they are making 50 cybertrucks a day, that is a LOT because I only need 1
2. WOW they are ONLY making 50 cybertrucks a day, that is not many because they need to get to ty order that is 100,000 in line

Two camps, both correct in some reguard

 

[Woodrick]

I ordered on Jan 10 and have been checking this site daily lol...and I noticed that Tesla is still delivering to customers who ordered on Dec. 9 2023, which is roughly the first 200 orders on the orders list. I thought Tesla has reached 50 trucks per day production rate a while ago? Even if they only make 10 Cybertrucks per day the first 200 should have been all delivered by Dec. 20 (20 days since Nov. 30 delivery event). So either there are more than 20x orders out there that are not registered on this site (24,000 Foundations Series, first 200 on list means 4000 actual orders and 4000/50 = 80 days), or Tesla has been producing at 3 Cybertrucks per day (Nov.30 - Feb 15 = 77 days), which also seems ridiculous. Can someone please chime in? Am I going crazy or is my math wrong??

The didn't start delivering to regular customers until the first of this year.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

I ordered on Jan 10 and have been checking this site daily lol...and I noticed that Tesla is still delivering to customers who ordered on Dec. 9 2023, which is roughly the first 200 orders on the orders list. I thought Tesla has reached 50 trucks per day production rate a while ago? Even if they only make 10 Cybertrucks per day the first 200 should have been all delivered by Dec. 20 (20 days since Nov. 30 delivery event). So either there are more than 20x orders out there that are not registered on this site (24,000 Foundations Series, first 200 on list means 4000 actual orders and 4000/50 = 80 days), or Tesla has been producing at 3 Cybertrucks per day (Nov.30 - Feb 15 = 77 days), which also seems ridiculous. Can someone please chime in? Am I going crazy or is my math wrong??

In yesterday’s flyover by Brad Sloan I counted close to 70 CTs and there were new ones pulling into the outbound lot while he videoed. I suspect that is going on all day. I would not be surprised if they are close to a run rate of 500/week, though they are not producing every day. This in line with earlier predictions though it might be faster.

 

[theholyrice]

I ordered 12/22/23 and was told yesterday when I asked a Tesla employee at Dublin, CA when I would see a truck, they laughed and said so so sorry. Literally said, "so so sorry, maybe end of year or 2025". ?Only delivering so far to 12/8 and 12/9 orders and employees first." literally came out of their mouth

No way...if you completed or

There is a 0.0 percent chance that FS orders that are already in would not be delivered until "end of year or 2025". If we want to account for nuclear wars and asteroids hitting the earth, then we can make that a 0.00000000001 percent chance.

there should've been 0 percent chance that FS orders would not be delivered before March, if they were making 50 per day. 2 months production = 60 days x 50 = 3,000.

 

[theholyrice]

Roughly 13x

that means there are more than 16,000 foundation series orders...that makes FS less valuable.

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