Another Hit Piece on Cybertruck

Dids

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Not as much as we in the West need China it seems. Trade deficits are telling, Australia has next to no manufacturing capablity anymore. Without wafers everyone in the West is stuffed. Australia has its own perspectives of course, we're also of interest if Indonesia doesn't come first, 100,000 ferrys and largest southeast army. The whole cancellation of the French submarine deal and taking on the US/UK nuclear powered subs instead was a deterrent move, there's no doubting that. It's handy to have a platform that can also launch nukes if we need too.

Australia barely has a soldier for every mile of coastline. We're like a smorgasbord of resources and our borders have been protected by others since our foundation through the empire and then commonwealth. Now that our head of state died today there will be renewed call to make Australia a Republic, and with it will go our last percievable defence. Europe is busy, USA is fighting itself more than anyone else willst being invaded by southern parts of the Americas, who's left on the world stage to play policeman, especially now after pandemics and co where everyone is still in recovery?

Hey at least it will get all them darn doll bludgers off me beach! Time to learn Mandarin mate. Lol o_O:p
Stop watching Fox news! Trade deficits are only possible between countries if 1 country desires to purchase security by holding cash from the other country. It isnt a sign of USA weakness that China chooses to hold Dollars. Indeed it makes China an investor in the USA. If China didn't want dollars it would let the Yuan appreciate in value against the dollar and Chines goods would become more expensive and American goods conversely less expensive ergo no trade deficit.
I think China perceives ANZUS as more formidable than it does the Commonwealth.
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cvalue13

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Wrights Law isn’t a trivial thing, it’s proved out again and again in almost every major industry.
We’re talking past one-another. That’s fine.

I understand that wright’s law applies to things, and is non-trivial. My initial question assumed it.

I’’ve been pointing out from the start only what you’ve now re-raised but framed as a counter-point: that wright’s law also assumes things will need to change as faced with constraints (ie “new curves begin’)

That point in mind, and in “violent agreement,” I re-up my initial question:

what all, in your view, does that assume about the battery technologies required for this to become true?

put differently, based on only present technologies, won’t demand for batter-related materials result in potentially exponential price increases as demand for EVs increases?

in which case avoiding that cost curve seems to assume certain technological advances that reduce the demand pressures on a finite resource
I was curious about things like your cobalt point.
 

Ogre

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I understand that wright’s law applies to things, and is non-trivial. My initial question assumed it.
You don’t seem to get this at all. From your own summary:

based on only present technologies,
Your underlying assumption seems to be that we live in a static world. Why would the next 10 years be limited to only present technologies? Development of new technologies is a fundamental assumption of Wright’s law.

There are thousands of engineers and scientists who are spending collectively billions of hours trying solve these problems. Absent nuclear war or massive global collapse due to global warming, they will succeed.
 

JBee

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Stop watching Fox news! Trade deficits are only possible between countries if 1 country desires to purchase security by holding cash from the other country. It isnt a sign of USA weakness that China chooses to hold Dollars. Indeed it makes China an investor in the USA. If China didn't want dollars it would let the Yuan appreciate in value against the dollar and Chines goods would become more expensive and American goods conversely less expensive ergo no trade deficit.
I think China perceives ANZUS as more formidable than it does the Commonwealth.
Lol ur funny. My doctor has given me a vaccination against consuming mass hysteria media, from any party. 😝

USD is default global currency to buy stuff from any other nation, so China is smart enough to use that. We get paid USD for our resources. That works until Fed intentionally pumps more fake cash to dilute holdings.

China invests more in other countries, in USD btw, than the world bank or any other nation. Here in Oz they have whole towns around mines, with private airports and harbours, that even drive on the other side of the road and we can only get in with an escort. So much for Australia being a sovereign nation. Just a glorified resource shopping mall. They nearly got into Fiji/Pacific the other day in a big way, all because cracks are forming in current alliances, and poorer nations head towards the best offer, because countries like Oz and US have forgotten how to care because they are so bogged down with their own internal bs. I see that as the US's greatest stability risk and everyone is already seeing the cracks.

On the subject of ANZUS: Reminds me of a joke. What do you call a gorilla with a machine gun? "Sir!" What do you call a gorilla with a machine gun and bananas in his ears? Anything you like, he can't hear you! It's the finger on the nuke that has the power, but that doesn't always mean the finger is attached to a monkey with half a brain though. Lol :ROFLMAO:

To be clear I'm happy about the US submarine deal, gives us a breather and some clandestine clout that is worth at least a second glance, should you for some crazy reason it's a walk in the park, which it actually is. We can't even stop illegal fishing. But as always Oz will remain a colonial state of those that can push the right buttons and feed the right sharks. 😪
 

happy intruder

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Not as much as we in the West need China it seems. Trade deficits are telling, Australia has next to no manufacturing capablity anymore. Without wafers everyone in the West is stuffed. Australia has its own perspectives of course, we're also of interest if Indonesia doesn't come first, 100,000 ferrys and largest southeast army. The whole cancellation of the French submarine deal and taking on the US/UK nuclear powered subs instead was a deterrent move, there's no doubting that. It's handy to have a platform that can also launch nukes if we need too.

Australia barely has a soldier for every mile of coastline. We're like a smorgasbord of resources and our borders have been protected by others since our foundation through the empire and then commonwealth. Now that our head of state died today there will be renewed call to make Australia a Republic, and with it will go our last percievable defence. Europe is busy, USA is fighting itself more than anyone else willst being invaded by southern parts of the Americas, who's left on the world stage to play policeman, especially now after pandemics and co where everyone is still in recovery?

Hey at least it will get all them darn doll bludgers off me beach! Time to learn Mandarin mate. Lol o_O:p
better arm ourselves now giant economics and population growth go people who do not have the USA's best interest......crime from the south to drugs from the east....and turning blind eyes to all of it is slowly rendering the USA's security susceptible to being overcome by bad guys and gals
 


Ogre

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That point in mind, and in “violent agreement,” I re-up my initial question:

I was curious about things like your cobalt point.
I think you are wanting some specific examples, the problem is there are multiple things and it’s not clear which/ how many will be most relevant.

Look at Tesla’s battery day video. There is an absolutely massive amount of information there and I would not do it justice. Tesla’s earnings calls often give progress updates on there goals from battery day.

Watch the videos by The Limiting Factor. His most recent one on the 4680 and DBE progress is good and all of his videos are approachable.

It is not one or two key technologies that win this in the end, it is dozens of incremental improvements. Each might add just a small improvement but they collectively produce a huge effect. For example:

* The Cybertruck probably won’t use LFP but since the Model 3 and Model Y use LFP, it reduces the demand for nickel.
* The 4680 cell enables structural battery packs which reduces the weight of the vehicle. Reducing raw materials used and increasing the range of the vehicle. (Battery Day)
* Improvements to motor efficiency increases range reducing the need for cells.
* Single Crystal Cathode decreases battery degradation over time which increases efficiency and battery life.

There are dozens of these sort of innovations from Tesla alone. CATL, BYD, Panasonic, and LG Chem all have their own engineers working on solutions to these problems.

Collectively this brings the cost of cells down, reduces the need for raw materials, and routes around resource constraints. Some of these will not pan out. Some will. Other innovations will come along and net unexpected efficiencies.


Does that make a little more sense? There is no easy, pat answer. Particular not when you are talking about such a long time frame.
 

cvalue13

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Your underlying assumption seems to be that we live in a static world.
no

you said ICE trucks will be more expensive than BEVs in 10 years

I said if things don’t change batteries as presently constructed would seem too expensive to scale

so I asked if you had a view as to what key things might have to change for BEV to instead be cheaper than ICE in 10 years

eventually I came to understand your response to be: lots
 

Dids

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no

you said ICE trucks will be more expensive than BEVs in 10 years

I said if things don’t change batteries as presently constructed would seem too expensive to scale

so I asked if you had a view as to what key things might have to change for BEV to instead be cheaper than ICE in 10 years

eventually I came to understand your response to be: lots
I think battery cost parity with ice is expected to happen in 2023. That doesn't mean EV price parity will happen any time soon because they are more desirable due to lower TCO. But certainly EV cheaper within 10 years.
https://grist.org/article/batteries-are-getting-cheap-so-why-arent-electric-vehicles/
 

JBee

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I think battery cost parity with ice is expected to happen in 2023. That doesn't mean EV price parity will happen any time soon because they are more desirable due to lower TCO. But certainly EV cheaper within 10 years.
https://grist.org/article/batteries-are-getting-cheap-so-why-arent-electric-vehicles/
If you factor in feature set, fuel and operation cost, and insurance on a cost per km basis over the lifetime of a Tesla you are ahead right now. CT is even better.

The question is how competitive can ICE be though? We could have fuel back down to $40 barrel, with refineries running on fumes till they break just to milk the last cent of capex out of the oil industry. And we might have EV dominance, but the problem will still remain externalities that are not electrified and currently have no clear pathway to change.
 
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charliemagpie

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In future, the 'discretionary use' ICE vehicle will be as popular as the future ICE vehicle yearly registration fee.
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