Another Hit Piece on Cybertruck

[happy intruder]

and for years on end!

dont forget years to come

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[Crissa]

... if the avg cost of EV's now is over 60k, what will it be in 2025....

The average sale price is over $60k because EVs are very desirable. That's not at all the same as 'cost'. A Leaf or Bolt most certainly doesn't cost $60k, nor even does a base level Model 3.

Several months ago Lordstown completed sale of the Lordstown U.S. factory to Foxconn (huge Chinese based and international manufacturer) so supposedly Foxconn will make the trucks for Lordstown Motors.
...
Foxconn wastes no time announcing...
...
Foxconn to make...

But Foxconn has yet to make anything in the US, tho. They've been announcing, buying factories, and making deals for the last half decade and nothing has come of it except some dubious buildings so far.

https://www.theverge.com/c/21507966/foxconn-empty-factories-wisconsin-jobs-loophole-trump

https://www.theregister.com/2022/05/25/foxconn_wisconsin_factory/

-Crissa

 

[happy intruder]

The average sale price is over $60k because EVs are very desirable. That's not at all the same as 'cost'. A Leaf or Bolt most certainly doesn't cost $60k, nor even does a base level Model 3.


But Foxconn has yet to make anything in the US, tho. They've been announcing, buying factories, and making deals for the last half decade and nothing has come of it except some dubious buildings so far.

https://www.theverge.com/c/21507966/foxconn-empty-factories-wisconsin-jobs-loophole-trump

https://www.theregister.com/2022/05/25/foxconn_wisconsin_factory/

-Crissa

my point was that people consider price and cost the same....it is what has to come out of their pocket....so to me, avg cost is 60k to buy.....the avg person could care less about what is desirable.....they only see what is cost them to buy.....thats why was a an MSRP.......60k

 

[charliemagpie]

Lower fuel cost makes the monthly repayments on $60,000 EV 'loan' more palatable/desirable/gettable.

Once we reach over majority EV sales, I'm guessing we could start to move towards current value system.

Will be interesting if higher price points become the norm, just like introducing new added expenses such as pay-tv, take-away, mobiles, into our lives. Or Not.

 

[Crissa]

my point was that people consider price and cost the same....it is what has to come out of their pocket....so to me, avg cost is 60k to buy.....the avg person could care less about what is desirable.....they only see what is cost them to buy.....thats why was a an MSRP.......60k

But that's ridiculous. Most EVs currently are luxury cars. But most cars sold aren't luxury cars.

Do you really think that will remain true as carmakers are required to sell more of them?

-Crissa

 

[rr6013]

But that's ridiculous. Most EVs currently are luxury cars. But most cars sold aren't luxury cars.

Do you really think that will remain true as carmakers are required to sell more of them?

-Crissa

Welcome to the Uncanny Valley.

Both perspectives are possible @happy intruder & @Crissa. Tesla is linear projected to scale MASSIVE. OR Tesla could hit a bump in the road settling for an AAPL-like niche of 30% margin.

Four hundred other manufacturers, OEM automakers, startups and JV companies formed to buikd BEV’s can’t all be BUST. The VW Bug car hasn’t surfaced nor the technology bifurcated the industry yet.

It isn’t forgone conclusion we’ve seen all of the future yet. Some kid in his uncle’s garage could surprise alot of people and put a dent in the market.

 

[happy intruder]

But that's ridiculous. Most EVs currently are luxury cars. But most cars sold aren't luxury cars.

Do you really think that will remain true as carmakers are required to sell more of them?

-Crissa

well yes in some cases....for example, our illustrious governor has now said no gas car sales in californicate after 2035.......that does not equate to your "luxury" definition as you describe it......and he or his predecessor will probably put a high "tax" if you try and go out of state to buy one and bring back to californicate....

and I dont believe it is ridicules..... when people go shopping.......they always ask what something cost.....they dont stand in line at the grocery store and ask what are the indigents in something that make up the cost (except for calories and sugar)....they are only interested in what comes out of their pocket.....as far as I am concerned price and cost are synonymous.......and cost is based on demand.....buying is based on ability to pay for it.

 

[Ogre]

well yes in some cases....for example, our illustrious governor has now said no gas car sales in californicate after 2035.......that does not equate to your "luxury" definition as you describe it......and he or his predecessor will probably put a high "tax" if you try and go out of state to buy one and bring back to californicate....

and I dont believe it is ridicules..... when people go shopping.......they always ask what something cost.....they dont stand in line at the grocery store and ask what are the indigents in something that make up the cost (except for calories and sugar)....they are only interested in what comes out of their pocket.....as far as I am concerned price and cost are synonymous.......and cost is based on demand.....buying is based on ability to pay for it.

2035 is 13 years out.

13 years ago people were banging out text messages to their friends on BlackBerrys talking about how this “iPhone thing” is a passing fad and real phones need physical buttons.

13 years ago, there were less than 2000 electric vehicles on the road and they all cost more than 130,000.

Tesla is going to be shipping 20 million cars a year by 2035. Pricing will take care of itself.

 

[happy intruder]

2035 is 13 years out.

13 years ago people were banging out text messages to their friends on BlackBerrys talking about how this “iPhone thing” is a passing fad and real phones need physical buttons.

13 years ago, there were less than 2000 electric vehicles on the road and they all cost more than 130,000.

Tesla is going to be shipping 20 million cars a year by 2035. Pricing will take care of itself.

agreed.....but I think some dont seem to understand my stance on price vs cost.....the average buyer may not be able to buy electric.....and cost to them is surely the reason....to them cost and price is the same....money out of their pocket

 

[rr6013]

but I think some dont seem to understand my stance on price vs cost

There’s a nuance.

There’s a Camel’s nose inbetween price.v.cost. The fact is Joe Blow has to buy an expensive EV. That upfront price differential between EV.vs. ICE exists in his buy decision which the ICE MSRP == costs less to acquire. To Joe Blow the EV would cost more money out-of-pocket to buy.
The nuance is that while ICE is cheaper to buy on the frontend it costs more to own, operate and maintain as TCO. Joe Blow never looks back at the price he paid in the bargain. He couldn’t afford to buy an EV in the first place. So the price Joe Blow pays for that decision is embedded in his decision based on the cost to him – never to be revisited.

 

[Ogre]

In less than 10 years ICE vehicles will be more expensive than EVs so all this talk about price vanishes.

 

[Crissa]

Average is still dumb when most are luxury models.

-Crissa

 

[rr6013]

In less than 10 years ICE vehicles will be more expensive than EVs so all this talk about price vanishes.

Those OEM’s like FORD(!FORDe) that choose to continue ICE as an exit strategy are writing off Capex. With nothing to lose, written off to salvage value the ICE vehicle volumes continue to 3rd world and dwindling 1st markets.

Expect strong downward pricing pressure making Joe Blow a great deal on ICE compared to BEV. Nothing flips the script until ENERGY prices drop for charging EV’s worldwide, charging networks build out and service is no longer a day trip and overnighter away.

There remains EV conversions for ICE OEM’s that could become viable revenue stream. That emerges then ICE defers buying BEV new vehicles for a generation. Conversions get killed off when $20,000 BEV‘s people can replace their ICE become real.

Looks like 2030 at least until ICE hits “collectorville”, new ICE sales end and an EV in every driveway - the norm. Probably 2045 3rd world trickle down effects until ICE worldwide sales end.

EV sales 2045+ are questionable with mass transit, robotaxi and global warming share of disposable income.

 

[Ogre]

Those OEM’s like FORD(!FORDe) that choose to continue ICE as an exit strategy are writing off Capex. With nothing to lose, written off to salvage value the ICE vehicle volumes continue to 3rd world and dwindling 1st markets.

Expect strong downward pricing pressure making Joe Blow a great deal on ICE compared to BEV. Nothing flips the script until ENERGY prices drop for charging EV’s worldwide, charging networks build out and service is no longer a day trip and overnighter away.

There remains EV conversions for ICE OEM’s that could become viable revenue stream. That emerges then ICE defers buying BEV new vehicles for a generation. Conversions get killed off when $20,000 BEV‘s people can replace their ICE become real.

Looks like 2030 at least until ICE hits “collectorville”, new ICE sales end and an EV in every driveway - the norm. Probably 2045 3rd world trickle down effects until ICE worldwide sales end.

EV sales 2045+ are questionable with mass transit, robotaxi and global warming share of disposable income.

If you drive 15k miles a year, operating costs on a non-hybrid vehicle are going to be around 200-250/ month. That’s not car payments, thats operating costs.

Leasing a new $25k EV will cost around $300/ month and operating costs will be around $50/ month.

As you get to lower and lower prices, operating costs start to dominate the equation more and more. Doubly so in locations where cheap power is abundant or when gas gets expensive.

On top of this, “Cheap” new ICE vehicles are going to be competing with even cheaper used ICE vehicles.

 

[cvalue13]

In less than 10 years ICE vehicles will be more expensive than EVs so all this talk about price vanishes.

what all, in your view, does that assume about the battery technologies required for this to become true?

put differently, based on only present technologies, won’t demand for batter-related materials result in potentially exponential price increases as demand for EVs increases?

in which case avoiding that cost curve seems to assume certain technological advances that reduce the demand pressures on a finite resource

I’m just not familiar with what hypotheticals are implicated by a view that finite battery resources won’t also become more expensive over time

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