Cybertruck production rate ~80 units daily (currently as of 2/24/24)

[jerhenderson]

doesn’t this framing miss/ignore the broader context of all EV sales cooling/retracting, but especially expensive ones?


May as well suggest Cybertruck responsible for the price whole market dynamic

It's not that simple... the Rivian is a niche vehicle, like a jeep Wrangler. It's not a truck, it's not a car. The Ford has legit build issues, is waiting for NACS ports and is marked up at the dealer.

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[agordon117]

Rivian has not helped themselves either, by saying they will not offer NACS retrofits. So anyone who is sane, who is considering a rivian, will not buy one until they have switched over to the NACS port.

Wait a year until companies are more desperate to sell you a car, so that you can avoid an annoying adapter? no brainer.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Tesla is currently manufacturing roughly 80 Cybertruck’s per day. This comes from a friend of a friend who actually works in the CT assembly plant. As always, take this statement with a grain of salt.

Friend of a friend? Not fact. That said, the comment on X by Wes Morrill to Joe T.’s post is fact that sort of corroborates it. In his comment he confirms that CT production is accelerating faster than expected.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Fantastic, at this rate, I'm going to get mine in 2030 .... And I'm 275k in the queue. Accounting for attrition obviously.

Interesting. I am about the same number and I expect a truck in 2024. There is no way at the current price and current conversion rate they won’t hit my RN this year.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

But it was half of that number a month ago. 2x each month will be in less than 1.5 years

We should think 2x every other month to every quarter this year.

 

[rudedawg78]

Fantastic, at this rate, I'm going to get mine in 2030 .... And I'm 275k in the queue. Accounting for attrition obviously.

I am about the same number in the queue as you. Was originally banking on getting my truck next year, but who knows at this point.

 

[dandor]

Interesting. I am about the same number and I expect a truck in 2024. There is no way at the current price and current conversion rate they won’t hit my RN this year.

You need to remember that there is a glut of Cyberbeasts that need to be made and delivered at the end of 2024. If you don't get an invite for FS, then the line starts all over with people wanting the non-FS with possible $7500 rebate. The Cybertruck will take years to satisfy initial demand.

 

[rudedawg78]

Interesting. I am about the same number and I expect a truck in 2024. There is no way at the current price and current conversion rate they won’t hit my RN this year.

Yeah, about the same number as you, as well. I expected mine next year based on how slow the deliveries of FS trucks are going currently. Now, who knows when I will get my truck. I am still hopeful for 2025. ?

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

doesn’t this framing miss/ignore the broader context of all EV sales cooling/retracting, but especially expensive ones?


May as well suggest Cybertruck responsible for the price whole market dynamic

This business about the BEV market contracting is part fact and part media negativity (which, to me, suggests an agenda). I know many people that would buy a BEV tomorrow if they cost the same or less (not cost of ownership) than a similar ICE car, but some of them cite range, infrastructure, not wanting to support Elon, interest rates, etc. I think the contraction is not really real and will pick up with a bang when, if nothing else, Tesla competitors start selling NACS equipped cars. That is, there is a pent-up demand.

 

[cvalue13]

This business about the BEV market contracting is part fact and part media negativity (which, to me, suggests an agenda). I know many people that would buy a BEV tomorrow if they cost the same or less (not cost of ownership) than a similar ICE car, but some of them cite range, infrastructure, not wanting to support Elon, interest rates, etc. I think the contraction is not really real and will pick up with a bang when, if nothing else, Tesla competitors start selling NACS equipped cars. That is, there is a pent-up demand.

see, great example of several nuances that might better explain Rivian and Lightning than;

“CT barely delivered, and foreseeable future only to people with year’s-long reservations”

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

You need to remember that there is a glut of Cyberbeasts that need to be made and delivered at the end of 2024. If you don't get an invite for FS, then the line starts all over with people wanting the non-FS with possible $7500 rebate. The Cybertruck will take years to satisfy initial demand.

No doubt it will take years to go through the reservation list but if there are really over 2M RNs then they could cover 500K RNs a year and it would still take 4 years. The question is, at the current price point, how many FS invites are being converted to sales. They have gotten to 11288, which is 140K into the RN list, since early December. If the conversion rate remains constant and Tesla continues to offer FS invitations, they would get to my number by mid year if not before. LOTS of ifs in there but that is where hopium reigns.

You are right that if Tesla starts selling non-FS CTs at the lower price point everything will change.

I do not think that Cyberbeasts factor in much.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

see, great example of several nuances that might better explain Rivian and Lightning than;

“CT barely delivered, and foreseeable future only to people with year’s-long reservations”

I just priced an R1T the other day. It was over 100K with everything I wanted. That said I really like both the Rivians and the Lightning. I do not see their sales staying flat if the infrastructure issues are addressed.

 

[hridge2020]

Tesla is currently manufacturing roughly 80 Cybertruck’s per day. This comes from a friend of a friend who actually works in the CT assembly plant. As always, take this statement with a grain of salt.

 

[cvalue13]

I just priced an R1T the other day. It was over 100K with everything I wanted. That said I really like both the Rivians and the Lightning. I do not see their sales staying flat if the infrastructure issues are addressed.

infra itself together with miss-perceptions around it’s importance

I mean, just look at this forum - which skews informed

and still swaths of people say things like “I need a truck that can go 350 miles without having to stop, and can’t imagine doing less than 85mph on any highway - it’s unsafe!” - not that there aren’t some edge case users for which it’s true (other than the 85mph part), but that the cacophony is way outsized, many not understanding both (a) the rarity with which they need that sort of range (or can’t go their preferred speeds), and (b) when the do need that range (or speed), the all-in cost-benefit analysis of why for most it’s totally worth the ‘downside’ of needing to stop/slow down occasionally


Eg, the Lightning is all-in the best F-150 ever built, full stop, despite it’s handful of limitations. What you get in the majority of your driving so far outweighs the occasional ‘costs’ of getting those upsides.

But instead it’s like people comparing air travel to vehicle travel, and going “there’s no reason to fly because if you do crash you’re always dead, which isn’t true in a car.” The statement is nominally true, but Ignores the statistical relevance of crashing, much less the benefits of flight for which planes were invented.

 

[dandor]

No doubt it will take years to go through the reservation list but if there are really over 2M RNs then they could cover 500K RNs a year and it would still take 4 years. The question is, at the current price point, how many FS invites are being converted to sales. They have gotten to 11288, which is 140K into the RN list, since early December. If the conversion rate remains constant and Tesla continues to offer FS invitations, they would get to my number by mid year if not before. LOTS of ifs in there but that is where hopium reigns.

You are right that if Tesla starts selling non-FS CTs at the lower price point everything will change.

I do not think that Cyberbeasts factor in much.

They might have gotten to 11288, but not everyone before that has received the ability to configure. 140,000 people were not given this opportunity, so that is a bit misleading. The invites for FS are not just based on the RN#, but also based on location of RN#. They might get to your RN# block, but you may not get a invite to configure.

The Cyberbeasts do matter since there is a lot of them configured, but only a handful of them made. The third quarter of this year will be dedicated to getting them built for customers. AWD FS is also now going into May, so we are almost into the end of the second quarter. Don't be surprised if we see another 30,000 referral point FS order again.

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