Ogre

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How would anyone know if Tesla is skipping numbers?
Everything we know about the RN numbers is guesswork. It’s a black box. We look at the numbers and some people try to find meaning and patterns. When Tesla says there are 250k orders and the highest RN is more than 250k we guess that there are gaps. (Just a hypothetical)

Since Tesla gives so little info about orders there is a lot of patchwork here so take any concrete statements about RN and deliver times with a huge grain of salt.
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Macgyverfever

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You see the button above that says, 'reservations'?

Click it.

You'll need a good connection and alot of memory on your computer to open it. It'll take awhile. Then enter your reservation number and city on the proper line. It'll calculate a position, though its guesses at dates is messed up.

-Crissa
Hey Crissa,

Sorry to bother, but could you please elaborate on ' its guesses at dates is messed up.' ? Are estimates no-longer relevant/do we need to go by an offset of some kind?
 

KHappe

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Hey Crissa,

Sorry to bother, but could you please elaborate on ' its guesses at dates is messed up.' ? Are estimates no-longer relevant/do we need to go by an offset of some kind?
The way I think it works is every time a customer buys a Tesla product the reservation number get bumped.
So, if you could find out how many cars, roofs, powerwalls etc were sold between 2019.11.21
and the date of your CT order.
You could roughly determine your place in line by.

Your reservation# - other Tesla products totals - 112744100

Does anyone have product(MY, M3, S, X, etc) totals since 2019.11.21 broken down maybe quarterly since 2019.11.21?
 


Macgyverfever

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Ah that does make sense. Thanks!
 

Crissa

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Hey Crissa,

Sorry to bother, but could you please elaborate on ' its guesses at dates is messed up.' ? Are estimates no-longer relevant/do we need to go by an offset of some kind?
The formulas were written in 2019 and edited infrequently over the next year. I don't know that they've ever been updated.

At all times they've been guesses. There is no way to calculate a position with as much precision as a computer pretends to.

The best guess is the position in the queue all told; position in trim can't know how many people will change their trim, or the number of each trim that will be produced in what order.

It's all just guesses.

The way I think it works is every time a customer buys a Tesla product the reservation number get bumped.
Not every product, just ones that aren't in a production queue. So pre-production Y, Plaid, X/S refresh, home solar and energy, Semi, etc.

That only makes it more complex, honestly.

-Crissa
 

charliemagpie

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We only know speculation. +1 million etc always been extracted by this groups excel, or mentioned by MSM. Never have I heard official confirmation.

Pls correct if I'm wrong.

However, it was just a couple of weeks ago, ex-board member boasted 200,000?+ in 2023, and upto 500,000 in 24. SO... I guess that is as close as we can officially get that the long long order line is true.
 

Macgyverfever

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Mine is 11319188x Dec 27th '19- end goal is to budget either more or less cautiously for 2024 (that statement is meant to be rhetorical, so please don't waste time on it lol) and didn't know where I stood assuming the most optimistic of CT production. Good to know I shouldn't trust the calc (y)
 


Coolbreeze704

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Tried it and here is my result.


However, there are factors that will implement your estimated delivery date. These factors, such as your region (us-north-america) and your drivetrain choice (dual-motor) will impact your delivery date.

Your anticipated delivery date is 11.60 months or 0.97 years after the first Cybertruck delivery, targeted for September 2023.

Assumptions: 60% order attrition rate. North American deliveries first, ramp period of 3 months to get to 5k vehicles per month, then 6 additional to get to 5k vehicles/week. Dual Motor and Quad Moto drivetrains will have priority.

These factors will change our estimates over time as we get more information.
 

J.Graham

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Late to the party but here's my results. I ordered as soon as they mentioned it at the event. I'm in Canada but hopefully that doesn't knock me down the list.

Based on your reservation number of RN112770410, you are #26311 in line for your Cybertruck!

However, there are factors that will implement your estimated delivery date. These factors, such as your region (us-north-america) and your drivetrain choice (tri-motor) will impact your delivery date.

Your anticipated delivery date is 4.53 months or 0.38 years after the first Cybertruck delivery, targeted for September 2023.

Assumptions: 60% order attrition rate. North American deliveries first, ramp period of 3 months to get to 5k vehicles per month, then 6 additional to get to 5k vehicles/week. Dual Motor and Quad Moto drivetrains will have priority.

These factors will change our estimates over time as we get more information.
 

Magnus2155

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I am about 110k. I ordered on 11/23, that Saturday AM. Top 5th. I will take it.

Any way to test drive these before we cut the check?
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