Tesla's Cybertruck VIN Activation Tracker (NOT Customer VIN Allocations)

[cvalue13]

Tesla doesn't assign vins until it's finished.

Ok thanks

but to clarify, Tesla doesn’t assign/communicate a VIN to customer until after it’s finished. Each build is assigned a VIN before assembly begins.

was really asking instead if, aside from VIN alone, Tesla gives other relevant stage-gate info between customer configuration and customer delivery.

Eg with Ford, sometime after placing your order you eventually first get:

• build/week day (a day in future Ford plans to begin assembly), then:

• In Production notice (typically ~1 week prior to your scheduled build day, window sticker usually available somewhere around now)

• then later you get your blend date - the date they actually begin assembly

• Sub-statuses

• Sent to Plant - Ford has sent your order to the plant to prepare for your build.
• Produced - Order has been built
• Sent Offsite - Order needs to go offsite for installation of components not installed at the plant: bed liner, wheel well liners, tonneau
• Released to Body Company - Getting one of the above things installed
• Origin Received - Truck is being stored in a location while it waits on the next step.

• Built / Produced - Your order is built and complete. Internally the status will show the order has been released and is awaiting shipment.

• Shipped - Your truck is on its way to the dealer (can sometimes find if rail or convoy, if it’s stuck at a yard, eg)

• Delivered (to dealer) - The dealer has taken delivery of the truck and will soon be ready for you to pick up.



Of course, Ford manages and customers track all this via the VIN being provided before you get your build week/day info.

If Tesla doesn’t give customers their build VIN beforehand ??‍

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[CyberGus]

For my VIN, I want a GoPro attached to the skateboard so I can watch it go down the line

 

[derichio02]

Ok thanks

but to clarify, Tesla doesn’t assign/communicate a VIN to customer until after it’s finished. Each build is assigned a VIN before assembly begins.

was really asking instead if, aside from VIN alone, Tesla gives other relevant stage-gate info between customer configuration and customer delivery.

Eg with Ford, sometime after placing your order you eventually first get:

• build/week day (a day in future Ford plans to begin assembly), then:

• In Production notice (typically ~1 week prior to your scheduled build day, window sticker usually available somewhere around now)

• then later you get your blend date - the date they actually begin assembly

• Sub-statuses

• Sent to Plant - Ford has sent your order to the plant to prepare for your build.
• Produced - Order has been built
• Sent Offsite - Order needs to go offsite for installation of components not installed at the plant: bed liner, wheel well liners, tonneau
• Released to Body Company - Getting one of the above things installed
• Origin Received - Truck is being stored in a location while it waits on the next step.

• Built / Produced - Your order is built and complete. Internally the status will show the order has been released and is awaiting shipment.

• Shipped - Your truck is on its way to the dealer (can sometimes find if rail or convoy, if it’s stuck at a yard, eg)

• Delivered (to dealer) - The dealer has taken delivery of the truck and will soon be ready for you to pick up.



Of course, Ford manages and customers track all this via the VIN being provided before you get your build week/day info.

If Tesla doesn’t give customers their build VIN beforehand ??‍

The CT will be my 8th Tesla purchase. Unfortunately I have never had any info until the date you are assigned a VIN and the vehicle begins transport to your delivery center.

I wish Tesla was more like Ford in this specific scenario. With my Bronco order there was so much info and also even received the photo of my rig as it exited the assembly line.

 

[scottf200]

Tesla doesn't assign vins until it's finished. Then it matches what is built at the factory to the order with the same specification. Cybertruck only has 2 SKUs total atm, so it's pretty simple. Model Y on the other hand has 5 colors x 2 seat colors x 2 wheel choice x tow hook or not, so each color has 8 SKUs, and this is one ONE trim.

Once you officially configured your order, you will be in line to get a VIN assigned. The timing depends on the production rate and supply/demand.

but to clarify, Tesla doesn’t assign/communicate a VIN to customer until after it’s finished. Each build is assigned a VIN before assembly begins.

was really asking instead if, aside from VIN alone, Tesla gives other relevant stage-gate info between customer configuration and customer delivery.

The CT will be my 8th Tesla purchase. Unfortunately I have never had any info until the date you are assigned a VIN and the vehicle begins transport to your delivery center.

I wish Tesla was more like Ford in this specific scenario. With my Bronco order there was so much info and also even received the photo of my rig as it exited the assembly line.

FYI, this article indicates at one time you could look at your Tesla login page's source code to find your VIN early.

How to reveal your Tesla VIN number before it’s in your account -- Jul 14 2021
https://electrek.co/2021/07/14/how-to-reveal-your-tesla-vin-number-before-its-in-your-account/

 

[derichio02]

FYI, this article indicates at one time you could look at your Tesla login page's source code to find your VIN early.

How to reveal your Tesla VIN number before it’s in your account -- Jul 14 2021
https://electrek.co/2021/07/14/how-to-reveal-your-tesla-vin-number-before-its-in-your-account/

This method still works! You can see it a bit early sometimes. I will say I have seen VINs change though. Sometimes vehicles fail the final cert or are damaged during transport.

 

[cvalue13]

UPDATE 12/16/2023


With collaboration from @newwave1331 and @JBee, the relative sophistication and utility of this thread has increased a fair bit from its nascent historical start.

Where initially this thread was explaining how Tesla VINs work generally (see immediately below), then later piecing together VINs of early pre-production builds (see ~pages 1-7), to now being in the earliest stages of having a decent grasp and tracking of Tesla’s VIN registrations for the CyberTruck (see ~pages ~7-8).

Where we’re headed next, is roughly the same process Bloomberg News used to track early Model 3 production ramp in its “Tesla Model 3 Tracker.”

Indeed, with any luck, Bloomberg or another sophisticated outfit with paid analysts picks up this torch again, and does this lifting with more resources (and better info-presenting tools than the forum provides).

Bur for now, for either us or Bloomberg, the info from Tesla this early in production ramp is not terribly deep or predictive.

Basically, this early in ramp, there are presumably a lot of growing pains and line shake-down occurring. As such, weekly VIN registration data can be expected as choppy and reflecting any number of earliest ramp hiccups or surges. It may be weeks before enough data is compiled to begin plotting projections, etc.

Still, some key and interesting info about this early stage of volatility is evident.

Particularly given the total number of CyberTruck’s built to date, and the build blend of AWD to Cyberbeasts. So far, all and only “Foundation Series” units. Which info about Foundation units allow us to lightly infer some info about when, perhaps, normal retail units may begin being available for configuration/delivery.

Those trends are recounted immediately below. As data develops further, we aspire to clean up this thread to have a front page of live updating charts and graphs (at least, perhaps, until Bloomberg et al take over for us).

Cyberbeast will be built, but rarely (compared to AWD) for now.

After the delivery event on Nov. 30, Tesla has registered only one (1!) VIN # for a Cyberbeast build - while >200 AWD VINs have been registers.

Going further back, including all RC/MC and Foundstiin builds (including a bundle of Beasts handed over in connection with the Delivery Event), the total build blend has been about 9-to-1 favoring AWD.

Here’s the overall data, since the first Release Candidate build at GFTX began back on ~June 1, 23, to the date of this post.

Build Type	AWD	Cyberbeast	Grand Total
RC (600-724)	100	20	120
MC (801-906)	95	10	105
Showroom (1200-1219)	20		20
Foundation (0-1199)	187	21	208
Grand Total	402	51	453

There’s a Beast driveline parts bottleneck, which if resolved *could* change the build blend.

In theory, if driveline parts become infinitely available, they could reverse the build blend and play catch-up on the Cyberbeast backlog. Building instead eg 9-to-1 in favor of Beasts, until caught up.

However, it’s also possible that Tesla plans to keep Beasts relatively rare (as halo products), even if the bottleneck breaks. In which case perhaps they catch up, but not at a pace of eg 9-to-1.



Ultimately we don’t know Tesla’s intended/aspirational build blend, only current build blend and VIN registration data (plus a dash of clandestine info).

Since the delivery event on Nov. 30 to the date of this post, Tesla has registered a about ONE (1) VIN for a Cyberbeast build. In that same time, they’ve registered almost 200 AWD VINs.

VIN registrations always exceed actual production and assembly figures, so Tesla’s conceivably to date (since the Delivery Event) begun assembly on no Cyberbeasts, and somewhere shy of 200 AWD units.

While that blend is surely not Tesla’s aspirational goal, even if the Beast bottleneck is resolved, and even if Tesla then plays catch-up for a period, we don’t know Tesla’s aspirational blend goal.

Some may think/say Tesla would like to sell more Beast than AWD, due to higher profit in Beast. This is certainly a reasonable take.

Some may counter that the Beast is a Halo product, and as such marketing and corporate interests in maintaining exclusivity of the Beast availability would be weighed in Tesla’s aspirational blend. This is also a reasonable take.




But the reality is, given the early demand and reservation backlog for Cybertruck, any normal course aspirational build blend may be secondary to Tesla seeking to fulfill order backlogs.

This forum’s order tracking chart, presently shows around a 6-to-4 ratio of AWD to Beast orders.

But with the present build blend of 9-to-1 in favor of AWD, that means the average Beast order will be waiting for delivery ~9 times longer than the average AWD order.

Put differently, in terms of wait times between order and delivery, the line for Cyberbeasts is 9 times longer than the line for AWDs.

From an optics and customer satisfaction perspective, this will eventually become a problem Tesla wants to resolve, regardless of their ultimate aspirational build blend.



However, Tesla’s recent communications about delivery expectations for Foundation AWD vs Beast suggest that Tesla foresees the bottleneck extending for some time.

In the initial Dec. 8th tranche of Foundation order invites, Tesla’s stated delivery estimates for AWD was Dec. 23 to March ‘24, while for Beast it was ‘early 24.’

But in the most recent Dec. 15 tranche of Foundation order invites, this changed to AWD “Jan. 24 to May 24,” and Beast to ‘mid- to late-24.”

This recent update suggests that, however many Beast-to-AWD orders they’ve received, they don’t expect to catch up to AWD with their bottleneck.

If this Forum’s order chart is any decent proxy of Tesla’s order blend, around 6-to-4 in favor of AWD, it means they anticipate still quite a lot of bottleneck through all build/deliveries in 2024.

And that’s just for Foundation series.


When it comes to normal retail units, it seems *possible* that Beast configurations don’t open up until at least late 2024, while normal retail AWD could open up as soon as Q2.

Or Later.


Let’s assume for the moment that Foundation orders have finished, so Tesla’s most recent delivery timing is what it takes for Tesla to finish Foundation deliveries.

In that scenario, Tesla is wrapping up Foundation Beast deliveries not until late 2024. That would suggest normal retail order confirmations don’t go out until say Q3 for first retail deliveries in day Q4.

If instead Tesla isn’t yet done taking Foundation orders, it means the next tranche should come with a further delivery expectation, further out.

Not until we know for certain that Tesla’s done taking foundation orders, and have any then-current info on expected Foundation delivery timelines, can we have any idea how much further PAST the end of year before normal retail Beast order/deliveries begin.

(And yes, I assume Tesla’s delivery estimates are made with best-present view as to production capacity forecasts.)

 

[cvalue13]

Not because I'm vouching for these views, but only for posterity in our look-backs months from now:

The average of recent forecasts from analysts at Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, UBS, Bernstein, and Wedbush, expect Tesla to sell about 48,500 Cybertrucks in 2024.

 

[scottf200]

UPDATE 12/16/2023


With collaboration from @newwave1331 and @JBee, the relative sophistication and utility of this thread has increased a fair bit from its nascent historical start.

Where initially this thread was explaining how Tesla VINs work generally (see immediately below), then later piecing together VINs of early pre-production builds (see ~pages 1-7), to now being in the earliest stages of having a decent grasp and tracking of Tesla’s VIN registrations for the CyberTruck (see ~pages ~7-8).

Where we’re headed next, is roughly the same process Bloomberg News used to track early Model 3 production ramp in its “Tesla Model 3 Tracker.”

Indeed, with any luck, Bloomberg or another sophisticated outfit with paid analysts picks up this torch again, and does this lifting with more resources (and better info-presenting tools than the forum provides).

Bur for now, for either us or Bloomberg, the info from Tesla this early in production ramp is not terribly deep or predictive.

Basically, this early in ramp, there are presumably a lot of growing pains and line shake-down occurring. As such, weekly VIN registration data can be expected as choppy and reflecting any number of earliest ramp hiccups or surges. It may be weeks before enough data is compiled to begin plotting projections, etc.

Still, some key and interesting info about this early stage of volatility is evident.

Particularly given the total number of CyberTruck’s built to date, and the build blend of AWD to Cyberbeasts. So far, all and only “Foundation Series” units. Which info about Foundation units allow us to lightly infer some info about when, perhaps, normal retail units may begin being available for configuration/delivery.

Those trends are recounted immediately below. As data develops further, we aspire to clean up this thread to have a front page of live updating charts and graphs (at least, perhaps, until Bloomberg et al take over for us).

Cyberbeast will be built, but rarely (compared to AWD) for now.

After the delivery event on Nov. 30, Tesla has registered only one (1!) VIN # for a Cyberbeast build - while >200 AWD VINs have been registers.

Going further back, including all RC/MC and Foundstiin builds (including a bundle of Beasts handed over in connection with the Delivery Event), the total build blend has been about 9-to-1 favoring AWD.

Here’s the overall data, since the first Release Candidate build at GFTX began back on ~June 1, 23, to the date of this post.

Build Type	AWD	Cyberbeast	Grand Total
RC (600-724)	100	20	120
MC (801-906)	95	10	105
Showroom (1200-1219)	20		20
Foundation (0-1199)	187	21	208
Grand Total	402	51	453

There’s a Beast driveline parts bottleneck, which if resolved *could* change the build blend.

In theory, if driveline parts become infinitely available, they could reverse the build blend and play catch-up on the Cyberbeast backlog. Building instead eg 9-to-1 in favor of Beasts, until caught up.

However, it’s also possible that Tesla plans to keep Beasts relatively rare (as halo products), even if the bottleneck breaks. In which case perhaps they catch up, but not at a pace of eg 9-to-1.



Ultimately we don’t know Tesla’s intended/aspirational build blend, only current build blend and VIN registration data (plus a dash of clandestine info).

Since the delivery event on Nov. 30 to the date of this post, Tesla has registered a about ONE (1) VIN for a Cyberbeast build. In that same time, they’ve registered almost 200 AWD VINs.

VIN registrations always exceed actual production and assembly figures, so Tesla’s conceivably to date (since the Delivery Event) begun assembly on no Cyberbeasts, and somewhere shy of 200 AWD units.

While that blend is surely not Tesla’s aspirational goal, even if the Beast bottleneck is resolved, and even if Tesla then plays catch-up for a period, we don’t know Tesla’s aspirational blend goal.

Some may think/say Tesla would like to sell more Beast than AWD, due to higher profit in Beast. This is certainly a reasonable take.

Some may counter that the Beast is a Halo product, and as such marketing and corporate interests in maintaining exclusivity of the Beast availability would be weighed in Tesla’s aspirational blend. This is also a reasonable take.




But the reality is, given the early demand and reservation backlog for Cybertruck, any normal course aspirational build blend may be secondary to Tesla seeking to fulfill order backlogs.

This forum’s order tracking chart, presently shows around a 6-to-4 ratio of AWD to Beast orders.

But with the present build blend of 9-to-1 in favor of AWD, that means the average Beast order will be waiting for delivery ~9 times longer than the average AWD order.

Put differently, in terms of wait times between order and delivery, the line for Cyberbeasts is 9 times longer than the line for AWDs.

From an optics and customer satisfaction perspective, this will eventually become a problem Tesla wants to resolve, regardless of their ultimate aspirational build blend.



However, Tesla’s recent communications about delivery expectations for Foundation AWD vs Beast suggest that Tesla foresees the bottleneck extending for some time.

In the initial Dec. 8th tranche of Foundation order invites, Tesla’s stated delivery estimates for AWD was Dec. 23 to March ‘24, while for Beast it was ‘early 24.’

But in the most recent Dec. 15 tranche of Foundation order invites, this changed to AWD “Jan. 24 to May 24,” and Beast to ‘mid- to late-24.”

This recent update suggests that, however many Beast-to-AWD orders they’ve received, they don’t expect to catch up to AWD with their bottleneck.

If this Forum’s order chart is any decent proxy of Tesla’s order blend, around 6-to-4 in favor of AWD, it means they anticipate still quite a lot of bottleneck through all build/deliveries in 2024.

And that’s just for Foundation series.


When it comes to normal retail units, it seems *possible* that Beast configurations don’t open up until at least late 2024, while normal retail AWD could open up as soon as Q2.

Or Later.


Let’s assume for the moment that Foundation orders have finished, so Tesla’s most recent delivery timing is what it takes for Tesla to finish Foundation deliveries.

In that scenario, Tesla is wrapping up Foundation Beast deliveries not until late 2024. That would suggest normal retail order confirmations don’t go out until say Q3 for first retail deliveries in day Q4.

If instead Tesla isn’t yet done taking Foundation orders, it means the next tranche should come with a further delivery expectation, further out.

Not until we know for certain that Tesla’s done taking foundation orders, and have any then-current info on expected Foundation delivery timelines, can we have any idea how much further PAST the end of year before normal retail Beast order/deliveries begin.

(And yes, I assume Tesla’s delivery estimates are made with best-present view as to production capacity forecasts.)

Executive summary per Bard LLM:

Summary of Tesla CyberTruck Production and Delivery:

• Early stage: Production is still ramping up, data is limited, and expect choppy VIN registration data due to growing pains.
• Build blend: Currently, 9-to-1 in favor of AWD vs. Cyberbeast, likely due to a drivetrain parts bottleneck.
• Beast production: Rare for now, with only 1 VIN registered since the delivery event compared to nearly 200 AWDs.
• Order backlog: Forum data suggests 6-to-4 ratio of AWD to Beast orders, but with current build blend, Beast wait times are 9 times longer.
• Delivery estimates: Recent updates suggest bottleneck will persist, with Foundation Beast deliveries extending into late 2024.
• Normal retail units: AWD configurations potentially available in Q2 2024, Beast configurations possibly not until late 2024 or later.

Key points:

• Bottleneck in driveline parts for Cyberbeast is impacting production and delivery.
• Tesla may prioritize fulfilling order backlogs over achieving desired build blend.
• Normal retail units may not be available for some time, with Beast configurations likely facing longer delays than AWD.

Uncertainties:

• Tesla's long-term production goals for AWD vs. Beast.
• Completion date for Foundation order fulfillment.
• Availability and impact of future driveline part improvements.

Overall:
CyberTruck production is in early stages and subject to change. Expect continued delays, especially for Beast configurations. Monitor Tesla's communication and community forums for updates.

 

[newwave1331]

Just to give an update. No new vins since 12/14 into 12/15 but I've been checking it daily. Hopefully I get a few tonight into tomorrow.

 

[newwave1331]

I'm learning when the recall website is updated. Its sometime in the afternoon, not midnight.

Today they added 33 AWD: VIN#597-629
So tomorrow I'm expecting 630, 631, 632....

 

[cvalue13]

I'm learning when the recall website is updated. Its sometime in the afternoon, not midnight.

Today they added 33 AWD: VIN#597-629
So tomorrow I'm expecting 630, 631, 632....

pauses over the weekend?

 

[BayouCityBob]

Gotta be getting close. Placed our order on 12/8. C'mon Tesla, hook a brother up before the New Year. Ready in Houston.

 

[newwave1331]

pauses over the weekend?

Consider last week I didnt have things ironed, I cant say with certainty. Maybe it just how they do blocks at a time or only update the recall website a few days per week.

Once I figure out the exact time of the recall website update, I'll adjust the date found to match when the site was updated. Ex. If it updates at 5pm, any VINs found before 5pm will show with yesterday's date rather than todays.

I was running a huge list when I went to bed but now I have a better idea of what I'm looking for. Tomorrow Ill run a list of about 20 expected VINs on repeat all day until I see what time it turns active.

 

[newwave1331]

Gotta be getting close. Placed our order on 12/8. C'mon Tesla, hook a brother up before the New Year. Ready in Houston.

Joe/Brad need to get some higher zoom camera drones. That would give us a better idea of when the vins are activated.

 

[newwave1331]

Last night I scanned for about 1800 different vins between midnight and 3am and got no new hits. I started a continuous scan for vins 630-699 around 9:40am and got 12 more on the first run. Between 9:59-10:07 I got 2 more. Between 10:32-10:41 I got 3 more. 17 so far today (630-646)!

Ex.
VIN 630 was scanned at
12:20:00 AM -> not active
2:09:00 AM -> not active
9:41:00 AM -> ACTIVE

VIN 642 was scanned at
12:37:00 AM -> not active
12:47:00 AM -> not active
9:42:00 AM -> not active
9:51:00 AM -> not active
9:59:00 AM -> not active
10:07:00 AM -> ACTIVE

VIN 646 was scanned at
12:44:00 AM -> not active
2:23:00 AM -> not active
9:43:00 AM -> not active
9:51:00 AM -> not active
9:59:00 AM -> not active
10:08:00 AM -> not active
10:16:00 AM -> not active
10:24:00 AM -> not active
10:32:00 AM -> not active
10:41:00 AM -> ACTIVE

This tells me that they are continuously updating the recall website throughout the day. Should I assume this is some type of automated process? As one goes onto the line or comes off the line?

I will setup a spare computer to run the program tomorrow so it runs uninterrupted. I'm interested in finding the first and last update to the site. This could change as more shifts are added (currently only running 1 shift per day).

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