Does the CT outsell all other BEV pickups combined?

[YDR37]

It has been claimed (though not, as far as I know, by Tesla itself) that the Cybertruck is outselling all other BEV trucks combined in the US. To check this claim, here is a deep dive into the most recent numbers, for Third Quarter 2024.

For this review, only EV pickups count. BEV cargo vans (like the Rivian Fleet or Ford e-Transit) are BEV trucks, but they are not pickups and are not included.

The first problem here is that Tesla won’t actually reveal how many CTs it sells. Tesla only provides two numbers for production or deliveries: one total for Model 3 and Model Y combined, and a second total for “other models” combined, which includes the Model S, Model X, and Cybertruck.

For 3Q 2024, Telsa reported 22,915 deliveries of “other models” worldwide. This number includes all global deliveries of the Model S and Model X, plus CT deliveries in the US.

Independent analysts have reached different conclusions about the CT’s share of the “other models” number. Cox Automotive/KBB estimated CT sales at 16,692 in the US in 3Q 2024, but this leaves little room for global sales of Models S/X. Troy Teslike, who has a strong record of forecasting Tesla production numbers, has criticized the Cox/KBB number; his estimate is lower, at 12,709. So the estimated range goes from 12,709 to 16,692.

Another possible clue: On October 2, 2024, Ford posted 3Q 2024 numbers, which showed 13,392 sales of the Mustang Mach-E. On October 23, 2024, Tesla posted a 3Q 2024 update for investers, which stated that the CT was the third bestselling EV in the US during 3Q 2024 (behind only the Model Y and Model 3). So Tesla had a chance to see the Mach-E number, and they apparently believed that the CT sold better. This suggests that CT sales were at least 13,393.

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[YDR37]

What about other BEV pickup sales in the US during 3Q 2024? The Cox/KBB estimates include the following:

7,162 Ford Lightning
3,817 Rivian R1T
1,995 Chevrolet Silverado EV
1,435 GMC Hummer EV pickup (estimate)
387 GMC Sierra EV

The Cox/KBB numbers seem OK, except for the Hummer EV. The Hummer EV comes in two body styles: an SUV and a pickup, but only the total of 4,305 was reported. However, GM recently announced a new Hummer EV “Omega” Limited Edition: two-thirds of the Omegas will be SUVs, and one-third will be pickups. Based on that ratio, I am assuming that about one-third of the Hummer EV sales, or about 1,435, were pickups.

Estimated total of other BEV pickups: 14,796

 

[YDR37]

So did the Cybertruck outsell all other BEV pickups combined in the US during 3Q 2024?

Unfortunately, we can’t tell for sure. CT sales were apparently in the 12,709 to 16,692 range, likely 13,393 or more. But Tesla won’t provide the exact number.

The combined total for other BEV pickups was around 14,796. So CT sales could have been slightly lower or slightly higher, depending on which estimate you use.

If I had to bet, I would guess that CT sales were slightly lower than other BEV pickups combined, just because (1) Troy Teslike’s estimate is lower, and he has a good track record, and (2) Tesla itself is not claiming (to my knowledge) that the CT has more than 50% of the BEV pickup sector.

But it does seem clear that CT is now the biggest player in this sector, and I don’t see any huge demand swings towards other models. It seems possible that the CT could outsell all other BEV pickups combined in the future, perhaps as soon as 4Q 2024.

 

[YDR37]

it does seem clear that CT is now the biggest player in this sector

So this raises the question: how big is the EV pickup sector?

I get a total of about 750,000 pickups sold in the US during 3Q 2024. This includes everything with a bed, from a hulking F-250 with a Crew Cab/8' bed to a cute li'l Hyundai Santa Cruz, and including everything from ICE to hybrid to BEV.

Of those, about 30,000 were BEVs. So about 4% of pickup sales in 3Q 2024 were BEVs, and about half of those, or 2%, were Cybertrucks specifically.

That's not huge. To put it another way, in 3Q 2024, the entire BEV pickup sector was outsold by the Ford Maverick.

It could be argued that all current BEV pickups are full-size, so they should only be compared to other full-size pickups (excluding Toyota Tacoma, Ford Ranger, etc.). In that case, the BEV share rises to about 5.3%, and the Cybertruck share to about 2.7%. Still small.

It seems like EV adoption in the pickup sector is going slower than for other vehicles. Overall, 8.9% of vehicle sales in 3Q 2024 were EVs. Pickups are dragging that number down; it would probably be in double digits if only SUVs and sedans were considered.

Bottom line: the Cybertruck is now the biggest fish in the EV pickup sector. But that's a small pond.

 

[scottf200]

Re: Ford Maverick

FYI, GoodCarBadCar reports the Ford Ranger (and Bronco) have outpaced demand.
https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/ford-...ng-production-an-analysis-of-the-reasons-why/

The biggest factor in Ford’s decision to reduce the production of the F-150 Lightning is that consumer demand has skyrocketed for two of the other trucks in their lineup, the Ranger and the Bronco.

We know the Cybertruck and F150 are about the same size.

Foreground is Ford Ranger which is smaller than
background Ford F150 Lightning.

Foreground is Ford Maverick which is smaller than
background Ford Ranger.

 

[YDR37]

From goodcarbadcar:

... even though Ford saw a YOY increase in Lightning sales of 55% from 2022 to 2023, it still fell short of the expected 3,200 F-150 EV’s expected to sell per week. By reducing production to one shift per day, the Lightning will now be produced closer to the average sales figure of about 1,500 units per week, +/- 100 units.

At this point, it seems clear that Ford overestimated the demand for the Lightning. They built capacity for over 150,000 Lightnings per year, and they are way below that.

So now the question is: did Tesla make a similar mistake? Their 3Q 2024 investor report indicates that they have capacity to produce more than 125,000 Cybertrucks per year. But a year after Cybertruck introduction, they are selling at maybe half that rate.

And it's not like there are a lot of international markets just waiting for their turn to buy CTs. The Model 3 and Model Y sell very well in China and Europe; in fact, most sales of the 3/Y come from outside the US. That's not going to happen with the CT. Sure, Tesla will sell some in Canada and Mexico, and maybe in places like Australia and the Middle East, but full-size pickups are not that common outside North America. The rest of the world is generally looking for EVs that are more compact than the 3/Y, not bigger.

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