Dual Motor reservation holders, still a buyer at $79,900?

[Marcia Litsinger]

I'm hoping they don't go over the base price as advertised. Been saving for the $49,900 since the beginning. I've got enough to pay cash for that amount. Too much more and the CT will be out of my price range. Hoping Elon keeps to his original price for us who have been waiting so long.

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[Mini2nut]

Maybe Tesla will honor the original price to buyers who reserved in the first 24 hours. Wishful thinking?

 

[scottf200]

I'm hoping they don't go over the base price as advertised. Been saving for the $49,900 since the beginning. I've got enough to pay cash for that amount. Too much more and the CT will be out of my price range. Hoping Elon keeps to his original price for us who have been waiting so long.

How did you at least account for basic inflation figures?
https://tools.carboncollective.co/inflation/us/2019/49900/

https://www.amortization.org/inflation/amount.php?year=2019&amount=49900&to=2023

 

[PilotPete]

How did you at least account for basic inflation figures?
https://tools.carboncollective.co/inflation/us/2019/49900/

https://www.amortization.org/inflation/amount.php?year=2019&amount=49900&to=2023

But Scott!

Don’t you understand how the greedy corporate bastards can use the reservations against us and charge Rivian level prices for all this technology??? And then there is a massive increase in the supply chain. And don’t forget the competition is weaker because of the labor strike. And the 4WS, and all the side panels and windows that have been broken and shot, and and and what about the batteries, and don’t forget GigaMexico is delayed, and everyone else is still loosing money on every EV, and the added cost of the BAW, and what EM said at both the Q1 and Q2 calls, and then there was battery day, end don’t forget the Alamo, and…

Everyone KNOWS it’s gonna be at least $100K for the “Duel” motor short range (only 35 miles, cuz they ain’t got enough 4680s)! Get real. Don’t come at me with this inflation nonsense.

 

[CyberGus]

How did you at least account for basic inflation figures?
https://tools.carboncollective.co/inflation/us/2019/49900/

https://www.amortization.org/inflation/amount.php?year=2019&amount=49900&to=2023

But we're not plotting inflation from 2019, it must be calculated from 2021. The MSRPs presented at the reveal were intended to be available at least 2 years later.

Of course, it doesn't really work that way, but Tesla's future price at reveal certainly had the next 2 years of projected inflation baked in.

 

[Crissa]

How did you at least account for basic inflation figures?
https://tools.carboncollective.co/inflation/us/2019/49900/

https://www.amortization.org/inflation/amount.php?year=2019&amount=49900&to=2023

That's not how this works.

They weren't being sold in 2019. The prices were for 2022, not 2019. They would have the fiduciary duty to predict a 3% inflation across the initial run. And all the Tesla vehicles are back to near their 2019 prices.

-Crissa

 

[scottf200]

That's not how this works. They weren't being sold in 2019. The prices were for 2022, not 2019. They would have the fiduciary duty to predict a 3% inflation across the initial run. And all the Tesla vehicles are back to near their 2019 prices. -Crissa

Thx. That reasoning was in the post right above yours.

After the past 4 years and everyone seeing the cost thru the pandemic no one in their right financial minds would think a 2019 presentation would hold through today. Below doesn't include 2022 or 2023. $36K to $47K is a "bit" more than inflation. (ie. 36 * 130% = 47)

 

[almostakeeper]

I didn't put my reservation in until Jan. 1st of this year sooo I'm hoping for a better price for a dual mtr by the time they get around to my number in probably 2040.

 

[alcstarheel]

No.

To answer the question.

My comments may echo what others have already stated since I'm late to the thread.

I don't think they'd get many converted reservations at that $79,900 mark through 2024 (to presumably get the tax credit) which would be even worse as you're not getting the marketing of all the conversions, all the trucks on the road (with the plethora of customizations the rolling billboard will have), and you're not recouping any R&D and manufacturing costs because you're not getting enough orders to build or inventory is sitting.

$79K is the starting price of the Model X. This would also put the Tri-Motor likely over $90K which yes the people in the market for Model S/X type pricing would not have a problem footing that bill but those sell-through numbers wouldn't get up to the 125K run rate they're hoping to meet for the CT next year. And TSLA has never been one to build inventory. That would be a death knell to the stock and make all the "rumors" and chatter about no one actually wanting the CT true.

Yes Elon said CT may suck and they may go back and build a traditional-looking truck but he will prove that to be true if priced incorrectly for the market.

In all of 2022 Tesla built 71K Model S/X and delivered 66K. That tells you the market at that price point is not in the 125K production range.

And don’t forget the competition is weaker because of the labor strike.

...and everyone else is still loosing money on every EV

I know PilotPete is being facetious in this post but this is also why I don't see them shooting the price to the moon.

All the talk about not being first to market in the EV pickup space will dry up faster than tears on the sun if they price it right. Tesla already knows the big 3 can't match them on pricing so it doesn't make sense to price to their (even recently reduced) levels.

From 2021 of the proposed release year at unveiling to now we've seen this inflation above. Pricing the Dual at this price point would be more than reasonable. I'm guessing the Dual goes to $59.9K and the Dual Performance (with three motors as people are suggesting) goes to $69.9K. Then in winter 2024 the Quad comes in at $79.9K and the Quad Plaid hits at $100K.

If we think about those with reservations for CT that also have reservations for a Rivian/Lightning/Silverado EV/RAM EV/etc. -- as well as those that currently own a Rivian/Lightning that want to trade in for the CT when their turn in line comes up -- if they see an attractive price for the CT they're canceling those other reservations or getting their trade in ready with their current EV truck. If not they're canceling the CT res.

You could always increase the price later. Decreasing the price significantly in the first year to boost sales of a first run mass market game-changing vehicle is not the signal to the market they want to make.

This might be the most important pricing decision Tesla has ever made.

 

[Mini2nut]

Upcoming Cybertruck pricing must be under lock and key at Tesla.

 

[newwave1331]

But we're not plotting inflation from 2019, it must be calculated from 2021. The MSRPs presented at the reveal were intended to be available at least 2 years later.

Of course, it doesn't really work that way, but Tesla's future price at reveal certainly had the next 2 years of projected inflation baked in.

If inflation was maintained around the trend of 1.7%, that would be a 5.2% increase for 2024 production from the 2021 projected timeline. If we follow the real inflation trend since 2019, its about 20%. Overall inflation is not the best measurement of Tesla's cost changes. Maybe they were projecting costs to go down because they are in a developing market.

They weren't being sold in 2019. The prices were for 2022, not 2019. They would have the fiduciary duty to predict a 3% inflation across the initial run. And all the Tesla vehicles are back to near their 2019 prices.

Why do you assume a 3% "inflation" expectation was their "fiduciary duty"? Is this a corporate financial standard?

I've never priced a product multiple years out but I've done pricing for over 10 years. We didn't look at inflation metrics because they didnt align with our cost allocation. You would have to monitor the weighted cost changes on educated estimates. Noone knows the future multiple years out.

We looked at how the next 3-6 months costs were being projected (in my case food, labor and utilities) and how my last 3 months PnLs were trending. We would monitor transactions daily to see how pricing was impacting guest counts. I was lucky to not be carrying a lot of debt on my company but other were. Interest risk wasn't something on my radar as most of my loans were fixed not float.

 

[PilotPete]

I've never priced a product multiple years out but I've done pricing for over 10 years. We didn't look at inflation metrics because they didnt align with our cost allocation. You would have to monitor the weighted cost changes on educated estimates. Noone knows the future multiple years out.

We looked at how the next 3-6 months costs were being projected (in my case food, labor and utilities) and how my last 3 months PnLs were trending. We would monitor transactions daily to see how pricing was impacting guest counts. I was lucky to not be carrying a lot of debt on my company but other were. Interest risk wasn't something on my radar as most of my loans were fixed not float.

I've managed a number of multi-year projects and programs. We have always budgeted for increased cost of goods as well as decreased costs when we believed that a new product would eventually come down in price. When you are budgeting for multi-year projects, you either account for this, or you get it wrong.

 

[batufrommongolia]

I think it's an awful question. Anyone who even mildly hints at willingness to pay suck a bloated price, is asking for it. What, you don't think Tesla keeps an eye on CTOC?

good eye, dude. i think tesla has more than we expect people here listening and even leading the trend

 

[Crissa]

Why do you assume a 3% "inflation" expectation was their "fiduciary duty"? Is this a corporate financial standard?

I've never priced a product multiple years out but...

Because that's how fiduciary duty works. You have a fiduciary duty to price in enough room in case it happens. It would be irresponsible to target an inflation rate lower than the Federal Reserve's target of 2%.

The fact that we still have people posting 'average price of new cars' without the average price of new Teslas shows all I think we need to show that these arguments are emotional, not logical.

-Crissa

 

[Coolbreeze704]

No.

To answer the question.

My comments may echo what others have already stated since I'm late to the thread.

I don't think they'd get many converted reservations at that $79,900 mark through 2024 (to presumably get the tax credit) which would be even worse as you're not getting the marketing of all the conversions, all the trucks on the road (with the plethora of customizations the rolling billboard will have), and you're not recouping any R&D and manufacturing costs because you're not getting enough orders to build or inventory is sitting.

$79K is the starting price of the Model X. This would also put the Tri-Motor likely over $90K which yes the people in the market for Model S/X type pricing would not have a problem footing that bill but those sell-through numbers wouldn't get up to the 125K run rate they're hoping to meet for the CT next year. And TSLA has never been one to build inventory. That would be a death knell to the stock and make all the "rumors" and chatter about no one actually wanting the CT true.

Yes Elon said CT may suck and they may go back and build a traditional-looking truck but he will prove that to be true if priced incorrectly for the market.

In all of 2022 Tesla built 71K Model S/X and delivered 66K. That tells you the market at that price point is not in the 125K production range.



I know PilotPete is being facetious in this post but this is also why I don't see them shooting the price to the moon.

All the talk about not being first to market in the EV pickup space will dry up faster than tears on the sun if they price it right. Tesla already knows the big 3 can't match them on pricing so it doesn't make sense to price to their (even recently reduced) levels.

From 2021 of the proposed release year at unveiling to now we've seen this inflation above. Pricing the Dual at this price point would be more than reasonable. I'm guessing the Dual goes to $59.9K and the Dual Performance (with three motors as people are suggesting) goes to $69.9K. Then in winter 2024 the Quad comes in at $79.9K and the Quad Plaid hits at $100K.

If we think about those with reservations for CT that also have reservations for a Rivian/Lightning/Silverado EV/RAM EV/etc. -- as well as those that currently own a Rivian/Lightning that want to trade in for the CT when their turn in line comes up -- if they see an attractive price for the CT they're canceling those other reservations or getting their trade in ready with their current EV truck. If not they're canceling the CT res.

You could always increase the price later. Decreasing the price significantly in the first year to boost sales of a first run mass market game-changing vehicle is not the signal to the market they want to make.

This might be the most important pricing decision Tesla has ever made.

Well said.

Things are lining up better then Tesla could have ever expected when they chose to enter the truck market. They have a huge opportunity if they, as you said, price the CT right to capture this massive break they have been presented with.

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