Musk Expects Cybertruck Production to Begin Mid-2023 [Per Q2 Earnings Call]

[FutureBoy]

Elon's production level expectation of 4680's is extreme speed.

At this stage, running at 80% may mean future shutdown in order to upgrade. Maybe overall, kicking off at extreme speed is preferred to maximize production over a given period.

SO, whilst reaching 1000 by the end of the year doesn't sound like much, Elon could be thinking spitting these things out at 1000 a second.

I feel Tesla extreme speed may well be the current constraint.

Seems like you are saying that Tesla will be upgrading the machine that builds the machine to plaid. I’d be ok with that. Give me a plaid CT that was produced by the plaid production line.

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[Ogre]

Eh.

People should look more at what is in motion and where the hardware is then what gets said.

Gigapress - in Europe
4680 cells - not being produced in Texas yet.

When those pieces are in place we’re nearly in business.

 

[Macgyverfever]

I'd take the shitty prototype lol

Prototype or not, after careful scientistic calculation I'm somewhere in-between position 442,968 and 442,969 so I'm pretty sure I'll have to share mine with someone anyway...

 

[cybguy]

Update: sorry everyone, it was production that Elon referred to, not delivery date.


The Q2 earnings call is happening right now and Musk just said that he expects Cybertruck deliveries production to begin mid-2023. He also added that it "might be our best product ever."
[/QUOTE
He's been saying production mid 2023 for the last 6 months. I'd expect sale by early 2024 to start to trickle out. Hopefully they can produce 50,000 in 2024 and ramp up in 2025. The U.S. division of Tesla could post their first annual profits in 2024 with ramped up MY from GigaTexas. Don't see it being be any later than 2025 when the Cybertruck is ramped up.

 

[Crissa]

It takes about a year to purchase a publicly listed company.

Why is it when people diss Elon they go on about things that couldn't have happened yet like the 'bot or in this instance, the Twitter buy?

He sticks his foot in his mouth often enough, you won't have to make things up.

-Crissa

 

[happy intruder]

Update: sorry everyone, it was production that Elon referred to, not delivery date.


The Q2 earnings call is happening right now and Musk just said that he expects Cybertruck deliveries production to begin mid-2023. He also added that it "might be our best product ever."

that probably means 6 to 9 months past that based on his other estimates and predictions

 

[intimidator]

"....Musk just said that he expects Cybertruck production to begin mid-2023...."

I expect Tesla to miss their goal....although I hope I am wrong....but me thinks it will be closer to the end of 2023.

So, 150,000 of us lucky blokes will get a Cybertruck in 2024! (The rest of you hobos will have to wait until 2025)

 

[ED_SFO]

"....Musk just said that he expects Cybertruck production to begin mid-2023...."

I expect Tesla to miss their goal....although I hope I am wrong....but me thinks it will be closer to the end of 2023.

So, 150,000 of us lucky blokes will get a Cybertruck in 2024! (The rest of you hobos will have to wait until 2025)

Given CT is a completely new process. If they do start production mid 2023, given the slow ramp at giga Texas for the model y more than likely less than 10k units of CT in 2023 and prob less than 80k units in 2024 at my guess.

Definitely could be more if they could build out the whole skateboard with drive train and seats on the pack and the tonneau cover on pack and just lift the whole thing into the premade body...being that there's no paint could definitely make it much simpler and much faster to put together.

 

[intimidator]

Given CT is a completely new process. If they do start production mid 2023, given the slow ramp at giga Texas for the model y more than likely less than 10k units of CT in 2023 and prob less than 80k units in 2024 at my guess.

Definitely could be more if they could build out the whole skateboard with drive train and seats on the pack and the tonneau cover on pack and just lift the whole thing into the premade body...being that there's no paint could definitely make it much simpler and much faster to put together.

Your estimates could be pretty close.

The issue Tesla created with the way they announced the Cybertruck, and took orders, is they created expectations - that turn sour when people have to wait, and wait and wait.

They shouldn't have announced the Cybertruck in November 2019. They should have waited a year. And, then they could have waited another 6 months to a 1 year because they knew in November 2020 they couldn't bring out the CT for awhile.

With reservations, they should have just capped it at say 300,000.

People at the top of the waiting list won't get their CT until 2024? And they made a reservation in 2019? Plus many of those top of the list people could be waiting until 2025. Not a good customer experience IMO. Reserve in 2019, and receive in 2025? If the vehicle, when it finally comes out, doesn't give them a happy ending, there will be a lot of bitter feelings created.

 

[Crissa]

Your estimates could be pretty close.

The issue Tesla created with the way they announced the Cybertruck, and took orders, is they created expectations - that turn sour when people have to wait, and wait and wait.

They shouldn't have announced the Cybertruck in November 2019. They should have waited a year. And, then they could have waited another 6 months to a 1 year because they knew in November 2020 they couldn't bring out the CT for awhile.

With reservations, they should have just capped it at say 300,000.

People at the top of the waiting list won't get their CT until 2024? And they made a reservation in 2019? Plus many of those top of the list people could be waiting until 2025. Not a good customer experience IMO. Reserve in 2019, and receive in 2025? If the vehicle, when it finally comes out, doesn't give them a happy ending, there will be a lot of bitter feelings created.

How was Tesla supposed to know the popularity of their offering before they revealed it?

-Crissa

 

[John K]

They can't actually use any of that money until they get you a truck, tho. So it hangs over their head.

-Crissa

To add, the monies are recorded in a liability account.

 

[John K]

How was Tesla supposed to know the popularity of their offering before they revealed it?

-Crissa

Easy, look at the truck. (I think the esthetic design is awesome)

 

[intimidator]

How was Tesla supposed to know the popularity of their offering before they revealed it?

-Crissa

Easy. Once the # of pre-orders hit over 250,000, they could have made plans to cap the # of reservations. Ford did exactly that....on the fly they decided to stop taking reservations.

 

[firsttruck]

Easy. Once the # of pre-orders hit over 250,000, they could have made plans to cap the # of reservations. Ford did exactly that....on the fly they decided to stop taking reservations.

There is a big difference here between Ford & Tesla.

Ford loses money on each EV so they have to limit sales to amount of regulatory credits needed to use for sales of their temporarily highly profitable ICE vehicles.
Ford has no desire to produce even 200K EV trucks (F-150 Lightning) a year.

Tesla makes good profits on each EV so there is great incentive to make as many as physically possible (and so will try).
Tesla is working to get where they could produce 500K to 1 million Cybertrucks a year.

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