Crissa

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Do not know why Electrek writers are still “news flash” this old news? It’s been seven days? Living under a rock? All they are doing is regurgitating 2019 till now CT info?

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He repeated and confirmed this on the earnings call.

-Crissa

 

cybguy

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You do realize first sales aren't likely until 2024 even if production starts in mid 2023. If your preorder is > than 50,000 I would expect delivery befor e2025 unless you upgrade to a quad/plaid model.
Still a lot of unknowns but hopefully they'll be some production next year.
 

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You do realize first sales aren't likely until 2024 even if production starts in mid 2023. If your preorder is > than 50,000 I would expect delivery befor e2025 unless you upgrade to a quad/plaid model.
Still a lot of unknowns but hopefully they'll be some production next year.
6mfibt.jpg
 


Ogre

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You do realize first sales aren't likely until 2024 even if production starts in mid 2023. If your preorder is > than 50,000 I would expect delivery befor e2025 unless you upgrade to a quad/plaid model.
Still a lot of unknowns but hopefully they'll be some production next year.
I think we’ve very nearly hit peak pessimism on Cybertruck.

Every week, prices increase 5% and delivery dates get pushed back by 2 days. By August it’s going to be a million dollar truck delivered in 2050.

What I realize is truck comes after all the pieces are in place. So with the GP in Europe and 4680 production still offline we know we’re at least 6 months from the first trucks coming off the line. Trying to guess dates more than that is fraught.
 

intimidator

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I think GM is in the better position. Ford has vehicles out now, so they're avoiding the bad look... Since the news doesn't seem to count how many they make, just the number of models. But Ford's battery production is more in doubt.

So we'll see who'll be where. My big prediction is Stellantis is probably no longer going to be a major US manufacturer in the next 5 years.

-Crissa
I agree on Stellantis...they are probably not long for the US market. Except for Jeep. Someone is going to figure out how to keep Jeep relevant in the US. Plus EV architecture lends itself nicely to 4 wheel drive.

GMs biggest hurdle will be internal. Have lunch with any General Manager of a GM or GMC dealership and you will find they are hardcore against EVs and think Tesla is no threat at all (I did have lunch with one recently). GM is going to be slow to move to EVs, and with the debt and debt service they currently have on their books it will be a challenge financially.

Ford on the other hand has gotten most of the internal staff and workers on board with transitioning to EVs. That removes a lot of internal friction.

I hope Ford makes the transition. GM we will see.

I do think the US automotive market, 7-8 years from now, will still have a lot of different players. Tesla won't squeeze everyone out of existence. Companies like Hyundai/Volvo/Lexus will carve out a slice of the EV market in the US. Maybe Rivian takes root long term too.
 

intimidator

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Do not know why Electrek writers are still “news flash” this old news? It’s been seven days? Living under a rock? All they are doing is regurgitating 2019 till now CT info?

7B7807CC-6B5E-4408-AA0F-95F298826209.jpeg
a) the media is sad these days.

b) Honestly Elon has cried wolf several times about the start of production of the CyberTruck. Tesla fanboys get defensive about when Elon said what. That shouldn't. Elon is awesome, but he did over promise on the when the Cybertruck would be produced. He has bumped the timeline several times. He announced in November 2019. Now shooting for mid 2023, which could be November 2023. That would be 4 years from announcement to the start of production, but with most reservation holders not getting their CTs until probably November 2024 or later. That is 5 years from announcement until delivery. 5 years is an insanely long time.
 

intimidator

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You do realize first sales aren't likely until 2024 even if production starts in mid 2023. If your preorder is > than 50,000 I would expect delivery before 2025 unless you upgrade to a quad/plaid model.
Still a lot of unknowns but hopefully they'll be some production next year.
Your timeline estimate seems realistic.

I sadly thought when I place my CT reservation November 2019 that I would have my Cybertruck by the end of 2022.

I now don't know when it might be. I think very few deliveries will happen in 2023. With a slow ramp in 2024, so yeah, I might get mine in 2025. I should be able to trade my Rivian in on it by then.....
 

Crissa

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...He has bumped the timeline several times. He announced in November 2019. Now shooting for mid 2023, which could be November 2023. That would be 4 years from announcement to the start of production, but with most reservation holders not getting their CTs until probably November 2024 or later. That is 5 years from announcement until delivery. 5 years is an insanely long time.
...they announced two years ahead, and then there was a pandemic. Almost everyone else was delayed, except Ford, who is dribbling out an anemic number of trucks.

-Crissa
 


intimidator

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...they announced two years ahead, and then there was a pandemic. Almost everyone else was delayed, except Ford, who is dribbling out an anemic number of trucks.

-Crissa
There was a pandemic, absolutely true. But Tesla cranked out a LOT of Model Ys and Model 3s during the pandemic, so they seemed to manage through the pandemic well when it came to manufacturing. In fact, Tesla rocked it.

Ford announced the Lightning in 2021, and yep, they are delivering a small batch right now.

I rode in a Lightning late last fall, and sat in one at the Ford dealer last week. Nice truck. I have a reservation for a Lightning, Rivian and Cybertruck. I got a 1st drive in a Rivian 2 weeks ago. Another nice truck. It was fun to drive. Sadly, they only give you 45 minutes to look it over and drive it...but at least they bring it to your house!

I sure hope Ford can DELIVER 150,000 Lightnings in 2023. I sure hope Rivian can DELIVER 50,000 vehicles in 2023. And, I do hope Tesla can DELIVER a few thousand Cybertrucks by the end of 2023.

It will be nice to see that transition from ICE to EV in the truck segment. In 2022, 70% of vehicles sold in the US were either pickups or SUVs/CUVs.
 

Ogre

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...they announced two years ahead, and then there was a pandemic. Almost everyone else was delayed, except Ford, who is dribbling out an anemic number of trucks.

-Crissa
Everything is relative.

Ford is absolutely cranking out trucks compared to Hummer and Rivian’s early days.

Considering Ford has basically bolted a battery to the underside of an F150, the fact that they were able to get a truck out on-time and quickly is not too surprising. But the volume coming from Ford isn’t exactly awe inspiring. I have yet to see one in the wild and since I’m in a smaller city doubt I will for some time.
 

intimidator

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Two million reservations is an insanely large number.
That 2 millionth reservation won't see their CT until probably 2027-28.

Ford stopped taking reservations for the Lightning when they got close to 200,000. That was the smart thing to do.

Tesla should have thought about capping CT reservations at probably 300,000. It doesn't help the brand to have 2 million frustrated potential customers.
 

firsttruck

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That 2 millionth reservation won't see their CT until probably 2027-28.

Ford stopped taking reservations for the Lightning when they got close to 200,000. That was the smart thing to do.

Tesla should have thought about capping CT reservations at probably 300,000. It doesn't help the brand to have 2 million frustrated potential customers.
The customers will do OK.

I am betting Tesla ships 2 million Cybertrucks (either full-size version or smaller "wolverine" version) before Ford ships 500K full BEV pickups.

 
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