Sirfun

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Two million reservations is an insanely large number.
This is one of the issues I have with Tesla. I've been on the earth for 66 years, and generally when a company has massive demand for a product that they have revealed as something they're going to produce. Then that massive demand is MONEY sitting on the table that they want.
Companies will spend ungodly amounts of money to find a way to get that product out, and in the hands of customers, so they can reap the profits.

SO, in 2017 Tesla/ Elon Musk told the world they had the ability to make Electric Semi's and were going to start production in 2 years. Same with the new roadster. This created tons of interest and huge number of corporations and people deposited way more than $100 for an opportunity to BUY these products. Here's all this money sitting on the table, and yet Tesla has not come to market. Then we have a repeat of this with the Cybertruck in 2019. Supposedly there are 2 million of us hangry customers standing in line, money in hand.

So here we are, mid-summer of 2022. Tesla has spent ungodly amounts of money. But still no products to SELL. Yet, Tesla stock and market cap is beyond belief. So this makes me wonder, why did Tesla/Elon Musk reveal these products, and create all this demand if they didn't have a way to get to all the cash THOSE customers are waving?

BTW, I do think there still is a possibility that these products will EVENTUALLY be produced. But come on Elon, we're getting HANGRY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Throwcomputer

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I think we’ve very nearly hit peak pessimism on Cybertruck.

Every week, prices increase 5% and delivery dates get pushed back by 2 days. By August it’s going to be a million dollar truck delivered in 2050.

What I realize is truck comes after all the pieces are in place. So with the GP in Europe and 4680 production still offline we know we’re at least 6 months from the first trucks coming off the line. Trying to guess dates more than that is fraught.
6 months after first one comes off the line, they are going to be spitting them out 5,000 per week. 12 months after first one, spitting out 8,000 per week. So much under estimating on the speed of ramp on here. Simple production line. Batteries will be full capacity production in a year and a half, just in time for my 6 mos. 5k per week guess!

Unfortunately, I still won't see mine till late 2025 early 2026 on that timeline @ 1 million 63 thousand on the adjusted queue.
 

Throwcomputer

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Two million reservations is an insanely large number.
2 million where you getting this from?

Yesterday I just browsed the tracker (which I know isn't accurate, but its best we got) to see what the adjusted number is at for reservations in the past few days. Seems like they only at about 1,500,000 approximately. Only 500k new reservations in the past year since I reserved.
 

intimidator

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The customers will do OK.

I am betting Tesla ships 2 million Cybertrucks (full-size or wolverine versions) before Ford ships 500K full BEV pickups.
It is not a Tesla vs a Ford thing.

Who delivers the most pickups doesn't matter.

PS What is this Wolverine thing? Will that take place of my Tri-Motor that I reserved?!?

PSS I am somewhat skeptical about how many CyberTrucks Tesla can deliver by the end of 2024....we shall see....my guess is the total delivered for 2023 + 2024 will be about 150,000.
 


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2 million where you getting this from?

Yesterday I just browsed the tracker (which I know isn't accurate, but its best we got) to see what the adjusted number is at for reservations in the past few days. Seems like they only at about 1,500,000 approximately. Only 500k new reservations in the past year since I reserved.
I was rounding to the nearest million
 

Cybr on

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2023 + 2024 will be about 150,000.
Really? I can understand that..
My guess for that time is around 240,00-275,000. For some reason I cannot get over the fact that no paint means faster production numbers along with IDRA spitting out castings. All far exceeding what our minds capabilities could even possibly compute .
😊 hey, I do know one thing for sure though.

I don’t know a damn thing about what’s going on!
🤣
 

intimidator

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Really? I can understand that..
My guess for that time is around 240,00-275,000. For some reason I cannot get over the fact that no paint means faster production numbers along with IDRA spitting out castings. All far exceeding what our minds capabilities could even possibly compute .
😊 hey, I do know one thing for sure though.

I don’t know a damn thing about what’s going on!
🤣
In theory Tesla is capable of more production than 150,000 CyberTrucks the first full year...but I am factoring in "unknown delays". Whether that is battery constraints, a glitch in the casting process, lack of the ability to hire more workers, Putin dropping a plane on Turkey.....something wonky.
 

Ogre

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The customers will do OK.

I am betting Tesla ships 2 million Cybertrucks (either full-size version or smaller "wolverine" version) before Ford ships 500K full BEV pickups.
Not going to find a lot of takers on that bet here. Maybe head over to the F150 forum.

I’m still betting Tesla laps everyone within the first 9 months of production and the lead only increases from there.
 


Ogre

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This is one of the issues I have with Tesla. I've been on the earth for 66 years, and generally when a company has massive demand for a product that they have revealed as something they're going to produce. Then that massive demand is MONEY sitting on the table that they want.
Companies will spend ungodly amounts of money to find a way to get that product out, and in the hands of customers, so they can reap the profits.

SO, in 2017 Tesla/ Elon Musk told the world they had the ability to make Electric Semi's and were going to start production in 2 years. Same with the new roadster. This created tons of interest and huge number of corporations and people deposited way more than $100 for an opportunity to BUY these products. Here's all this money sitting on the table, and yet Tesla has not come to market. Then we have a repeat of this with the Cybertruck in 2019. Supposedly there are 2 million of us hangry customers standing in line, money in hand.

So here we are, mid-summer of 2022. Tesla has spent ungodly amounts of money. But still no products to SELL. Yet, Tesla stock and market cap is beyond belief. So this makes me wonder, why did Tesla/Elon Musk reveal these products, and create all this demand if they didn't have a way to get to all the cash THOSE customers are waving?

BTW, I do think there still is a possibility that these products will EVENTUALLY be produced. But come on Elon, we're getting HANGRY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I think there are 2 things here.

#2 Tesla wants to gauge demand. How big should they go with production. Tesla wants to know in advance if they should go big or go giga.
#3 Musk likes to talk up products before they are ready based on often optimistic timelines. “We make the impossible merely late”.
#4 Stuff happens. COVID and the massive supply chain shortages that fell out of that took a ton of resources to combat.

In this case, all 4 things conspired against them. Demand was GIGA. Delays cascaded and are only just now starting to wrap up. COVID lasted longer and had a more profound impact on global supply then I think anyone predicted. The Shanghai shutdown happening 2 1/2 full years after COVID started is a pretty nasty echo.

None of this makes us less Hangry.
 

Bill906

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There was a pandemic, absolutely true. But Tesla cranked out a LOT of Model Ys and Model 3s during the pandemic, so they seemed to manage through the pandemic well when it came to manufacturing. In fact, Tesla rocked it
I think you’re implying that because Tesla cranked out a bunch of cars during the pandemic is proof that the pandemic isn’t an excuse for the CT delay. Tesla was able to pump out tons of M3’s and MY’s because they put the CT, Semi and Roadster on hold. It was a shrewd, calculated decision that, IMO, proves Telsa (Elon) has amazing foresight, and isn’t afraid to make hard decisions.
 

charliemagpie

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We agree :
We start to receive our CT's mid 23, and there's a 3 year waiting list.

WhatIF ?
Interest in CT grows as fast as we have seen with the 3 and Y ?
By the end of 2024, could the waiting list get to 8 years ?
 

Crissa

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We agree :
We start to receive our CT's mid 23, and there's a 3 year waiting list.

WhatIF ?
Interest in CT grows as fast as we have seen with the 3 and Y ?
By the end of 2024, could the waiting list get to 8 years ?
Tesla will figure something out. Also yes, that will happen.

-Crissa
 

 
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