intimidator

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There is a big difference here between Ford & Tesla.

Ford loses money on each EV so they have to limit sales to amount of regulatory credits needed to use for sales of their temporarily highly profitable ICE vehicles.
Ford has no desire to produce even 200K EV trucks (F-150 Lightning) a year.

Tesla makes good profits on each EV so there is great incentive to make as many as physically possible (and so they do).
Tesla is working to get where they could produce 1 million Cybertrucks a year.
Ford can't produce 200,000 Lightnings (yet), so they thought it would be dumb to take more reservations than they can build.

It is true Tesla is kicking everyone's butt on profitability per vehicle, there is no debating that.

On the otherhand, Ford has been building and selling vehicles for 100 years. They will eventually figure out a way to make their EVs so they can sell them at a profit. (might take them 3-4 more years). Here is my wild prediction: Ford will sell more EV pickups than Tesla in 2022 and 2023.

PS I have ridden in a Lightning, twice. It is nice EV pickup. Consumers will be happy with it iMO.
I hope someday I can ride in a CyberTruck.
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Sgt. Glenn

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There is a big difference here between Ford & Tesla.

Ford loses money on each EV so they have to limit sales to amount of regulatory credits needed to use for sales of their temporarily highly profitable ICE vehicles.
Ford has no desire to produce even 200K EV trucks (F-150 Lightning) a year.

Tesla makes good profits on each EV so there is great incentive to make as many as physically possible (and so will try).
Tesla is working to get where they could produce 500K to 1 million Cybertrucks a year.
Elon has stated twice that 250,000 Cybertrucks per year is their goal but I think that is sandbagging.
 

CyberGus

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There's not much tech in the CT that Tesla hasn't used before, except for the exoskeleton.

I'm sure they were tinkering with "score and bend" back in 2018, when they were building the prototype(s). But that's very different from making a machine that can spit out 100 perfect exoskeletions an hour. To me, this is the real risk for the mass-production ramp.

They must be using an outside contractor to build such a machine, like they did with IDRA and the Gigapress. If such a thing existed at Fremont or Nevada, there would be leaks.
 

Ogre

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There's not much tech in the CT that Tesla hasn't used before, except for the exoskeleton.

I'm sure they were tinkering with "score and bend" back in 2018, when they were building the prototype(s). But that's very different from making a machine that can spit out 100 perfect exoskeletions an hour. To me, this is the real risk for the mass-production ramp.

They must be using an outside contractor to build such a machine, like they did with IDRA and the Gigapress. If such a thing existed at Fremont or Nevada, there would be leaks.
Elon suggested the Cybertruck assembly would have even more innovations to make it lighter; quicker and more affordable to manufacture. I’ve been assuming that’s the exoskeleton but maybe there is more.
 


HaulingAss

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"....Musk just said that he expects Cybertruck production to begin mid-2023...."

I expect Tesla to miss their goal....although I hope I am wrong....but me thinks it will be closer to the end of 2023.

So, 150,000 of us lucky blokes will get a Cybertruck in 2024! (The rest of you hobos will have to wait until 2025)
I've been watching Elon very closely for a long time and I think he might hit his "mid-2023" estimate for production/deliveries. The reason I say this is his predictions about manufacturing are becming better (FSD predictions are a different ballgame) and he's already reset the schedule once when he realized it was too soon due to COVID and supply chain slowdowns. If things gradually get better from here, and many industry observers think they will, I think the Cybertruck might be on time.

Let's hope I'm right!
 

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Given CT is a completely new process. If they do start production mid 2023, given the slow ramp at giga Texas for the model y more than likely less than 10k units of CT in 2023 and prob less than 80k units in 2024 at my guess.

Definitely could be more if they could build out the whole skateboard with drive train and seats on the pack and the tonneau cover on pack and just lift the whole thing into the premade body...being that there's no paint could definitely make it much simpler and much faster to put together.
Model Y production ramp was complicated by the Shanghai shutdown and other supply chain snags and the 4680 being so damned slow getting out the door. About 6 months ago it sounded like they’d finally licked the 4680 production issues, but it seems like it’s still dragging on. Without decent 4680 production we’re dead in the water.

If the 4680 production smooths out and there are no more big supply chain snags, Cybertruck timeline should move a lot quicker. I’d sure feel better if 4680 production was squared up though. They are still relying on Cato. Production is ramping up quickly there, but earlier in the year they thought they would be well into 4680 ramp up in Texas by year end… ain’t going to happen.
 

intimidator

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Model Y production ramp was complicated by the Shanghai shutdown and other supply chain snags and the 4680 being so damned slow getting out the door. About 6 months ago it sounded like they’d finally licked the 4680 production issues, but it seems like it’s still dragging on. Without decent 4680 production we’re dead in the water.

If the 4680 production smooths out and there are no more big supply chain snags, Cybertruck timeline should move a lot quicker. I’d sure feel better if 4680 production was squared up though. They are still relying on Cato. Production is ramping up quickly there, but earlier in the year they thought they would be well into 4680 ramp up in Texas by year end… ain’t going to happen.
You are right, 4680 production is / has been way slow. There can’t be any significant Cybertruck deliveries until they get that figured out.

And it appears none of the outside suppliers of 4680s are ramping any faster than Tesla either. Let’s hope by year end we hear that someone is producing 4680s at a. decent scale or things will have to be pushed back.
 

charliemagpie

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Without decent 4680 production we’re dead in the water.
You are right, 4680 production is / has been way slow. There can’t be any significant Cybertruck deliveries until they get that figured out.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-4680-cell-output-pilot-line-kato-rd-35-percent-growth-mom/
Tesla’s 4680 cell output from its pilot line is growing 35% month-over-month

This quote is based on historical data. The operative word being 'IS'.

On the basis of measuring a growth of 35% month over month...( they have measured more than one month)

Can we start at .5 Megawatts ? Is that unreasonable ?

Let's even go back 6 months to January 2022. Starting .5 Megawatts, and grow it 35% monthly, shall we ?

Jan-22​
0.5​
Feb-22​
0.7​
Mar-22​
0.9​
Apr-22​
1.2​
May-22​
1.7​
Jun-22​
2.2​
Jul-22​
3.0​
Aug-22​
4.1​
Sep-22​
5.5​
Oct-22​
7.4​
Nov-22​
10.1​
Dec-22​
13.6​
Jan-23​
18.3​
Feb-23​
24.7​
Mar-23​
33.4​
Apr-23​
45.1​
May-23​
60.9​
Jun-23​
82.2​
Jul-23​
110.9​


Of course, Austin will be producing, not just Kato road.

I see a million+ cars worth of 4680's

We have no concerns about 4680 batteries for 23

It's not the battery ramp. It is the extreme production ramp.

It is 2024/25 and beyond. Starting with 5 million vehicles + Megapacks required which will be the issue.
 


HaulingAss

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You are right, 4680 production is / has been way slow. There can’t be any significant Cybertruck deliveries until they get that figured out.

And it appears none of the outside suppliers of 4680s are ramping any faster than Tesla either. Let’s hope by year end we hear that someone is producing 4680s at a. decent scale or things will have to be pushed back.
4680 ramp is closely tracking the guidance given at battery Day when they announced the 4680 cell back in fall of 2020. I admit, they could have done a better job emphasizing that it wasn't going to be fully ramped in a year, but they are on track with the guidance they provided. Which seems pretty amazing considering the wrench COVID threw into everything. What are you basing that 4680 ramp has been "way slow", on?

Have you every ramped a new battery cell before? :ROFLMAO: Do you have any idea of the quality control processes they must go through before they release millions of lithium-ion cells into the market? Are you aware that every iteration of the cell must be extensively tested and tortured in artificial climate extremes and cycled hundreds, if not thousands, of times? The financial risk is real and quite substantial, and it was never my expectation that Tesla would be reckless here.

Are you aware of what kind of disaster it would be if Tesla released cells that had a 1% failure rate after 4 years? When you say the 4680 ramp has been "way slow", what is your baseline comparison? And is that with or without COVID and massive supply chain disruptions?

From where I'm sitting, the 4680 ramp has been nothing short of amazing so far. If it can scale into multiple lines cranking out millions by early next year, I think it will be the high-speed ramp success story of the century! Don't get me wrong, it's not a given that the ramp will remain on schedule, but I haven't seen anything to make me think there is a problem.

Tesla is exceptionally fast at executing on multiple levels, I don't think your expectations are grounded in any kind of manufacturing reality I am familiar with.
 
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intimidator

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https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-4680-cell-output-pilot-line-kato-rd-35-percent-growth-mom/
Tesla’s 4680 cell output from its pilot line is growing 35% month-over-month

This quote is based on historical data. The operative word being 'IS'.

On the basis of measuring a growth of 35% month over month...( they have measured more than one month)

Can we start at .5 Megawatts ? Is that unreasonable ?

Let's even go back 6 months to January 2022. Starting .5 Megawatts, and grow it 35% monthly, shall we ?



Of course, Austin will be producing, not just Kato road.

I see a million+ cars worth of 4680's

We have no concerns about 4680 batteries for 23

It's not the battery ramp. It is the extreme production ramp.

It is 2024/25 and beyond. Starting with 5 million vehicles + Megapacks required which will be the issue.
Who is "we"?

There definitely is a "concern" of having sufficient supply of 4680's in 2023. At least at the beginning of the year.

Elon said it was taking longer at Austin than they anticipated.

And, what is telling is that LG Chem, Panasonic, CATL, etc are not promising any 4680s anytime soon either.

Will Tesla and the outside suppliers eventually get it worked out?
I think most will agree, yes they will. It will just take time.

....I wonder what the next jump in density/efficiency/chemistry will be for batteries. The 4680s were announced way back in Sept 2020. Three years later will be Sept 2023...about when 4680s will probably finally be produced in sufficient quantities. At that time, it might be time to start focusing on the next generation of batteries. 3 years is a long time...
 

HaulingAss

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Who is "we"?

There definitely is a "concern" of having sufficient supply of 4680's in 2023. At least at the beginning of the year.

Elon said it was taking longer at Austin than they anticipated.

And, what is telling is that LG Chem, Panasonic, CATL, etc are not promising any 4680s anytime soon either.

Will Tesla and the outside suppliers eventually get it worked out?
I think most will agree, yes they will. It will just take time.

....I wonder what the next jump in density/efficiency/chemistry will be for batteries. The 4680s were announced way back in Sept 2020. Three years later will be Sept 2023...about when 4680s will probably finally be produced in sufficient quantities. At that time, it might be time to start focusing on the next generation of batteries. 3 years is a long time...
The ramp of 4680's by other manufacturers is seperate from Tesla's ramp. The fact that the big battery makers are not beating Tesla to the market with useable cells speaks to the fact that Tesla's ramp is not slow, at least not yet. Tesla is already selling initial production into the market. Their expert partners haven't delivered a single cell.

3 years is not a long time in the world of cell formats. Most formats have lives of 50 or 100 years or more! 4680's time is only just beginning. It will likely be the fastest ramp of any new cell format in the history of batteries!
 

intimidator

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4680 ramp is closely tracking the guidance given at battery Day when they announced the 4680 cell back in fall of 2020.

From where I'm sitting, the 4680 ramp has been nothing short of amazing so far. If it can scale into multiple lines cranking out millions by early next year, I think it will be the high-speed ramp success story of the century! Don't get me wrong, it's not a given that the ramp will remain on schedule, but I haven't seen anything to make me think there is a problem.
What was the ramp schedule?

I thought it was to start manufacturing them within a year of Battery Day (at least test batches) and then the schedule was to put 4680s into every vehicle built at GigaTexas.

That was what I heard. (Of course there has been several re-adjustments to timelines since)

Now, most recently Elon did say they are pushing back using 4680s, and the majority of vehicles coming out of GigaTexas will be with the old style 2170s....until they can get the 4680s ramped up.

AND IT IS OKAY for Tesla / Elon to admit they missed their promised dates. <insert excuses here>

It is okay. They / Elon is doing great things. But deadlines / timelines / promises will be missed. That is okay. I thought I was getting my Cybertruck at the end of 2022. Now it will probably be the end of 2024.
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