Ogre
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- Dennis
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The 35% number referred to Kato, not Austin. They said explicitly that Texas production was not online. Kato isn’t big enough to ramp to 110 GWh, it will only get up to about 20 GWh.https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-4680-cell-output-pilot-line-kato-rd-35-percent-growth-mom/
Tesla’s 4680 cell output from its pilot line is growing 35% month-over-month
This quote is based on historical data. The operative word being 'IS'.
On the basis of measuring a growth of 35% month over month...( they have measured more than one month)
Can we start at .5 Megawatts ? Is that unreasonable ?
Let's even go back 6 months to January 2022. Starting .5 Megawatts, and grow it 35% monthly, shall we ?
Jan-22 0.5 Feb-22 0.7 Mar-22 0.9 Apr-22 1.2 May-22 1.7 Jun-22 2.2 Jul-22 3.0 Aug-22 4.1 Sep-22 5.5 Oct-22 7.4 Nov-22 10.1 Dec-22 13.6 Jan-23 18.3 Feb-23 24.7 Mar-23 33.4 Apr-23 45.1 May-23 60.9 Jun-23 82.2 Jul-23 110.9
Of course, Austin will be producing, not just Kato road.
I see a million+ cars worth of 4680's
We have no concerns about 4680 batteries for 23
It's not the battery ramp. It is the extreme production ramp.
It is 2024/25 and beyond. Starting with 5 million vehicles + Megapacks required which will be the issue.
Not clear if they are waiting on the Cathode plant before starting Texas or what the hold up is.
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