Musk Expects Cybertruck Production to Begin Mid-2023 [Per Q2 Earnings Call]

[Ogre]

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-4680-cell-output-pilot-line-kato-rd-35-percent-growth-mom/
Tesla’s 4680 cell output from its pilot line is growing 35% month-over-month

This quote is based on historical data. The operative word being 'IS'.

On the basis of measuring a growth of 35% month over month...( they have measured more than one month)

Can we start at .5 Megawatts ? Is that unreasonable ?

Let's even go back 6 months to January 2022. Starting .5 Megawatts, and grow it 35% monthly, shall we ?

Jan-22​	0.5​
Feb-22​	0.7​
Mar-22​	0.9​
Apr-22​	1.2​
May-22​	1.7​
Jun-22​	2.2​
Jul-22​	3.0​
Aug-22​	4.1​
Sep-22​	5.5​
Oct-22​	7.4​
Nov-22​	10.1​
Dec-22​	13.6​
Jan-23​	18.3​
Feb-23​	24.7​
Mar-23​	33.4​
Apr-23​	45.1​
May-23​	60.9​
Jun-23​	82.2​
Jul-23​	110.9​

Of course, Austin will be producing, not just Kato road.

I see a million+ cars worth of 4680's

We have no concerns about 4680 batteries for 23

It's not the battery ramp. It is the extreme production ramp.

It is 2024/25 and beyond. Starting with 5 million vehicles + Megapacks required which will be the issue.

The 35% number referred to Kato, not Austin. They said explicitly that Texas production was not online. Kato isn’t big enough to ramp to 110 GWh, it will only get up to about 20 GWh.

Not clear if they are waiting on the Cathode plant before starting Texas or what the hold up is.

Sponsored

 

[Ogre]

4680 ramp is closely tracking the guidance given at battery Day when they announced the 4680 cell back in fall of 2020. I admit, they could have done a better job emphasizing that it wasn't going to be fully ramped in a year, but they are on track with the guidance they provided. Which seems pretty amazing considering the wrench COVID threw into everything. What are you basing that 4680 ramp has been "way slow", on?

Cybertruck release date was 6 months ago and Cybertruck was designed around the 4680 cells. So clearly some wires got crossed in terms of dates.

With COVID and all the supply chain bullshit over the past 2 years, there is zero chance they would have gotten the Cybertruck out on time regardless of 4680 ramp, but my feeling is they were fully expecting 4680 would be out the door in 2021. That’s the only way the original Cybertruck date made sense.

I wouldn’t call that “Way Slow” myself. They are making a huge change to battery manufacturing in less than 5 years. That’s not slow at all.

Musk was talking about SpaceX, but he said (something like) “We make the impossible merely late”. Applies here as well.

 

[Cybr on]

I wouldn’t call that “Way Slow” myself. They are making a huge change to battery manufacturing in less than 5 years. That’s not slow at all.

Musk was talking about SpaceX, but he said (something like) “We make the impossible merely late”. Applies here as well.

Crazy how much has changed in just 5 years.
I love that line.
“We make the impossible merely late”.
very true.

 

[HaulingAss]

Cybertruck release date was 6 months ago and Cybertruck was designed around the 4680 cells. So clearly some wires got crossed in terms of dates.

With COVID and all the supply chain bullshit over the past 2 years, there is zero chance they would have gotten the Cybertruck out on time regardless of 4680 ramp, but my feeling is they were fully expecting 4680 would be out the door in 2021. That’s the only way the original Cybertruck date made sense.

I wouldn’t call that “Way Slow” myself. They are making a huge change to battery manufacturing in less than 5 years. That’s not slow at all.

Musk was talking about SpaceX, but he said (something like) “We make the impossible merely late”. Applies here as well.

The Cybertruck was announced a full year before we had even heard of the 4680 cells. I'm not claiming the ramp is not slow compared to Tesla's original wishes for the Cybertruck, I'm saying it's not slow compared to what they announced on battery day in fall 2020.

Tesla is already deliveriing Model Y's with 4680's but the Cybertruck has been delayed.

 

[HaulingAss]

What was the ramp schedule?

I thought it was to start manufacturing them within a year of Battery Day (at least test batches) and then the schedule was to put 4680s into every vehicle built at GigaTexas.

That was what I heard. (Of course there has been several re-adjustments to timelines since)

Now, most recently Elon did say they are pushing back using 4680s, and the majority of vehicles coming out of GigaTexas will be with the old style 2170s....until they can get the 4680s ramped up.

AND IT IS OKAY for Tesla / Elon to admit they missed their promised dates. <insert excuses here>

It is okay. They / Elon is doing great things. But deadlines / timelines / promises will be missed. That is okay. I thought I was getting my Cybertruck at the end of 2022. Now it will probably be the end of 2024.

At battery day Tesla did not announce a ramp schedule because there wasn't one. He did say the first pre-production would probably begin in about a year and it did. He didn't specify how quickly they could ramp to high volume because of course that depends on a lot of things. I do remember when Elon was asked about the timeline of volume production he was quite vague and said it would take years to gradually ramp to higher and higher volume. It would be a slow, gradual process, not an explosion of cells right up front.

What people are missing is the ramp (so far) has been roughly what we were led to believe. Of course those who listened to a bunch of YouTube hype might have formed an opinion that the ramp would be much sooner. But I don't think you can stop that. It's Youtube!

 

[intimidator]

At battery day Tesla did not announce a ramp schedule because there wasn't one. He did say the first pre-production would probably begin in about a year and it did. He didn't specify how quickly they could ramp to high volume because of course that depends on a lot of things. I do remember when Elon was asked about the timeline of volume production he was quite vague and said it would take years to gradually ramp to higher and higher volume. It would be a slow, gradual process, not an explosion of cells right up front.

What people are missing is the ramp (so far) has been roughly what we were led to believe. Of course those who listened to a bunch of YouTube hype might have formed an opinion that the ramp would be much sooner. But I don't think you can stop that. It's Youtube!

A bit of the confusion is that the plan with the GigaTexas factory was to use 4680s for vehicles built there.

And they anticipated GigaTexas, which started construction June 2020, to be finished before the end of the 2021. Thus the ass-u-mption was that by Jan 2022 all the GigaTexas production would have 4680s. With some coming from the stockpile they were attempting to create at Kato Road, and the rest from GigaTexas internally, with possibly some from outside suppliers.

I think best guess now is that we are looking sometime in 2023 to get to a meaningful level of 4680 supply.

My question is/will be does that mean the initial tranche of 4680s will go to Model Ys in 2023, and that the CyberTruck will have to wait awhile longer?

 

[Crissa]

My question is/will be does that mean the initial tranche of 4680s will go to Model Ys in 2023, and that the CyberTruck will have to wait awhile longer?

It did wait awhile longer. This is us, waiting.

-Crissa

 

[FutureBoy]

It did wait awhile longer. This is us, waiting.

-Crissa

Well, some of us. Some are buying alternatives (happy for them and glad they shorten the wait for the rest of us).
Others are waiting but with lots of whining (like that’s going to help anything). And still others are waiting quietly (possibly just distracting themselves with other activities). Generally the rest of us are here trying to wait patiently while discussing every little tidbit of fact or fiction we can find.

 

[Ogre]

Well, some of us. Some are buying alternatives (happy for them and glad they shorten the wait for the rest of us).
Others are waiting but with lots of whining (like that’s going to help anything). And still others are waiting quietly (possibly just distracting themselves with other activities). Generally the rest of us are here trying to wait patiently while discussing every little tidbit of fact or fiction we can find.

There aren’t enough alternative vehicles shipping to significantly reduce waiting on Cybertruck.

By the time it ships there might be 20,000 Rivians on the road, a similar number of F150 Lightnings, and 200 Hummers. Many of these are either Cyber-Never buyers or would have had their reservation in the hundreds of thousands.

 

[HaulingAss]

It is true Tesla is kicking everyone's butt on profitability per vehicle, there is no debating that.

On the otherhand, Ford has been building and selling vehicles for 100 years. They will eventually figure out a way to make their EVs so they can sell them at a profit. (might take them 3-4 more years). Here is my wild prediction: Ford will sell more EV pickups than Tesla in 2022 and 2023.

I have very little doubt that Ford will eventually be able to make and sell EV's profitably, and it might be as soon as next year if it's OK to ignore the fact that every EV Ford sells will cause them to sell fewer, more profitable Ford ICE vehicles. SO profitable EV sales do not necessarily add to the bottom line and can actually accelerate the spiral into bankruptcy be eroding more profitable ICE sales.

Being able to sell EV's for a small profit in 2023 or 2024 does not mean they can compete with Tesla and that those EV profits are secure going forward. The obvious problem here is there will almost certainly be a *huge* disparity between how much it costs Ford and Tesla to build their vehicles. This means Tesla will have a *huge* advantage in terms of pricing power, which means Tesla can continue to increase production and lower selling prices and Ford will not be able to do that.

In order to have a secure and growing business, you need pricing power. That's achieved with efficiency through the system, from acquisition of raw materials and components right through production and delivery. The fact that Ford has over 100 years' experience doing this does not imply they can still do it well. In fact, they have become fat and lazy and the onnly reason they are still here is because all legacy automakers have become fat and lazy. Their organizational structure is top-heavy, their distribution system is inefficient, and they blow too much money advertising to try to make up for all the ineficiency. The consumer ends up paying for that too.

Tesla is on a path to humiliate legacy auto by showing the world just how bad they really are.

 

[intimidator]

I have very little doubt that Ford will eventually be able to make and sell EV's profitably, and it might be as soon as next year if it's OK to ignore the fact that every EV Ford sells will cause them to sell fewer, more profitable Ford ICE vehicles. SO profitable EV sales do not necessarily add to the bottom line and can actually accelerate the spiral into bankruptcy be eroding more profitable ICE sales.

Being able to sell EV's for a small profit in 2023 or 2024 does not mean they can compete with Tesla and that those EV profits are secure going forward. The obvious problem here is there will almost certainly be a *huge* disparity between how much it costs Ford and Tesla to build their vehicles. This means Tesla will have a *huge* advantage in terms of pricing power, which means Tesla can continue to increase production and lower selling prices and Ford will not be able to do that.

In order to have a secure and growing business, you need pricing power. That's achieved with efficiency through the system, from acquisition of raw materials and components right through production and delivery. The fact that Ford has over 100 years' experience doing this does not imply they can still do it well. In fact, they have become fat and lazy and the onnly reason they are still here is because all legacy automakers have become fat and lazy. Their organizational structure is top-heavy, their distribution system is inefficient, and they blow too much money advertising to try to make up for all the ineficiency. The consumer ends up paying for that too.

Tesla is on a path to humiliate legacy auto by showing the world just how bad they really are.

Ford doesn't have to "compete" with Tesla.

BEV (before EVs) Ford competed against Nissan, BMW, GM, Hyundai, Kia, Honda, Toyota, etc etc.
Now that EVs are taking up about 5% of the US market, and headed to 10%, Ford is still competing against all those other companies, plus Tesla.

Ford does need to re-invent itself, and it will be painful, but they are not competing against just Tesla. They are competing against all those car companies.

Yes, by 2030 Ford will need to be able to produce EVs, profitability. That need to break a lot of eggs to get there. But they have a chance. They can lean on their F250, F350, F450, Transit van, etc between now and 2030.

PS I wouldn't buy Ford stock, and I am not selling my Tesla stock.

 

[MRTENNANT]

Oh, that's right! Well, if he's so sick of waiting for Tesla he should buy a Rivian or a Hummer!

Errr, wait...

OK then, I guess he should build his own EV truck then!

"Ohhh..you should go buy another thing then huh huh huh..."You are so clever Ass hat...oh sorry, HaulingAsshat. I didn't say I was tired of waiting, I'm tired of being told when its going to be done. They need to just STFU up until they have a solid. I have a model three and a gladiator, I'm good. I'm just sick of being told when its gonna be ready when the track record is zero so far. Is that enough of an explanation for you? Are we clear now Mr. Hat? Sorry..Mr. Ass, I'll get it right one day, shucks

 

[Ogre]

"Ohhh..you should go buy another thing then huh huh huh..."You are so clever Ass hat...oh sorry, HaulingAsshat. I didn't say I was tired of waiting, I'm tired of being told when its going to be done. They need to just STFU up until they have a solid. I have a model three and a gladiator, I'm good. I'm just sick of being told when its gonna be ready when the track record is zero so far. Is that enough of an explanation for you? Are we clear now Mr. Hat? Sorry..Mr. Ass, I'll get it right one day, shucks

“When will the Cybertruck be released?” Was one of the most upvoted questions on the investor call so clearly your opinion that they need to STFU isn’t a popular one.



Mostly though, Tesla hasn’t been beating this drum. If anything Tesla’s communications on when the Cybertruck would be out has been too little. It was damned near radio silence from Tesla until late in 2021. Even then it was a low key website change. Since then we’ve gotten like 3-4 updates, mostly as part of routine shareholder communications.

The idea that Tesla is overcommunicating anything about the Cybertruck is laughable.

Tesla is so quiet on this, the media has been busy inventing nonsense and reading tea leaves. Maybe you are confused between tea leaf reading nonsense from the auto media and actual Tesla communications?

 

[MRTENNANT]

“When will the Cybertruck be released?” Was one of the most upvoted questions on the investor call so clearly your opinion that they need to STFU isn’t a popular one.



Mostly though, Tesla hasn’t been beating this drum. If anything Tesla’s communications on when the Cybertruck would be out has been too little. It was damned near radio silence from Tesla until late in 2021. Even then it was a low key website change. Since then we’ve gotten like 3-4 updates, mostly as part of routine shareholder communications.

The idea that Tesla is overcommunicating anything about the Cybertruck is laughable.

Tesla is so quiet on this, the media has been busy inventing nonsense and reading tea leaves. Maybe you are confused between tea leaf reading nonsense from the auto media and actual Tesla communications?

To be clear again, they need to STFU until they have a solid. As in its ok to say, we don't know for sure given volatility in the supply chain. Not "it will be at this time" and then nothing. Its totally ok to not know and state as such. I don't think I said anything about "overcommunicating".....

 

[Crissa]

Because they will not have a solid date until trucks are rolling to customers.

So that's just silly to wait until.

-Crissa

Sponsored