Musk Expects Cybertruck Production to Begin Mid-2023 [Per Q2 Earnings Call]

[HaulingAss]

"Ohhh..you should go buy another thing then huh huh huh..."You are so clever Ass hat...oh sorry, HaulingAsshat. I didn't say I was tired of waiting, I'm tired of being told when its going to be done. They need to just STFU up until they have a solid. I have a model three and a gladiator, I'm good. I'm just sick of being told when its gonna be ready when the track record is zero so far. Is that enough of an explanation for you? Are we clear now Mr. Hat? Sorry..Mr. Ass, I'll get it right one day, shucks

OK, got it. You are saying you would prefer NO time estimate over one that does not have 100% certainty.

Clue: Don't interpret a time estimate to be an iron-clad guarantee. In fact, Tesla specifically discloses they cannot and do not provide timeframe guarantees, same as all automakers who take pre-orders.

You seem awfully upset which is why I recommended you not rely on other people but instead make your own EV. That way you can provide a guaranteed time estimate to yourself! LOL!

Sponsored

 

[HaulingAss]

Ford doesn't have to "compete" with Tesla.

BEV (before EVs) Ford competed against Nissan, BMW, GM, Hyundai, Kia, Honda, Toyota, etc etc.
Now that EVs are taking up about 5% of the US market, and headed to 10%, Ford is still competing against all those other companies, plus Tesla.

Ford does need to re-invent itself, and it will be painful, but they are not competing against just Tesla. They are competing against all those car companies.

Yes, by 2030 Ford will need to be able to produce EVs, profitability. That need to break a lot of eggs to get there. But they have a chance. They can lean on their F250, F350, F450, Transit van, etc between now and 2030.

PS I wouldn't buy Ford stock, and I am not selling my Tesla stock.

If you understood the effect of being able to grow production by 50-80% annually, then you would understand that there comes a time when Ford will have to compete with Tesla.

And if you understood the financial fragility of Ford when it comes to declining sales of profitable vehicles and how that impacts volume efficiencies, then you would understand we are looking at a situation that will likely snowball out of control for Ford a lot sooner than 2030. This has been evident for years but is only recently becoming apparent to Ford.

This is how disruption works and companies with long, storied histories are not given a free pass. In fact, those are the companies that facilitate disruption because they have taken their eye off the ball while telling everyone they are the ones who know how to make cars in high volume. Look at Kodak, the company that invented the first digital camera but didn't want to commercialize it because it would gut their film sales and processing services.

Ford didn't want to transition to EV's too quickly for very similiar reasons and now they are in a very similar position to Kodak immediately before they went bankrupt.

As EV proponents, we can be sad that Ford is not well positioned to make the transition to EV's but that is not necessarily the right way for EV supporters to look at it, particularly when you consider that it's Ford's own doing and the company doing the disrupting has been scaling EV production by 50%-80% for years and plans to continue doing exactly that. One of these companies is fit to lead, the other has already demonstrated they are not fit to lead. New car buyers cannot afford to let them lead. I suppose with enough government handouts they might be nursed along for years but that is no way to run an economy.

 

[Ogre]

To be clear again, they need to STFU until they have a solid. As in its ok to say, we don't know for sure given volatility in the supply chain. Not "it will be at this time" and then nothing. Its totally ok to not know and state as such. I don't think I said anything about "overcommunicating".....

They literally can’t.

Tesla has an obligation to keep shareholders informed of developments which affect the share price. Cybertruck production start will absolutely affect the share price.

90% of the communications Tesla has made regarding the Cybertruck has been updates in their shareholder letter. Musk has also rarely replied when people have begged him for an update on Cybertruck production. There have been almost no big announcements around this.

Frankly, your personal dislike for Cybertruck production updates is not widely held. Lots of people would like to know when Tesla’s best estimate of production start is.

Tesla cannot “STFU” legally and most people don’t want them to.

 

[intimidator]

If you understood the effect of being able to grow production by 50-80% annually, then you would understand that there comes a time when Ford will have to compete with Tesla.

And if you understood the financial fragility of Ford when it comes to declining sales of profitable vehicles and how that impacts volume efficiencies, then you would understand we are looking at a situation that will likely snowball out of control for Ford a lot sooner than 2030. This has been evident for years but is only recently becoming apparent to Ford.

This is how disruption works and companies with long, storied histories are not given a free pass. In fact, those are the companies that facilitate disruption because they have taken their eye off the ball while telling everyone they are the ones who know how to make cars in high volume. Look at Kodak, the company that invented the first digital camera but didn't want to commercialize it because it would gut their film sales and processing services.

Ford didn't want to transition to EV's too quickly for very similiar reasons and now they are in a very similar position to Kodak immediately before they went bankrupt.

As EV proponents, we can be sad that Ford is not well positioned to make the transition to EV's but that is not necessarily the right way for EV supporters to look at it, particularly when you consider that it's Ford's own doing and the company doing the disrupting has been scaling EV production by 50%-80% for years and plans to continue doing exactly that. One of these companies is fit to lead, the other has already demonstrated they are not fit to lead. New car buyers cannot afford to let them lead. I suppose with enough government handouts they might be nursed along for years but that is no way to run an economy.

Elon Musk "...manufacturing vehicles is hard..."

Tesla is going to grow, and grow. Hopefully my TSLA will too.
Yet, IMO they are not going to grow 50% a year forever.
Again, IMO, I think it will take awhile for Tesla to get to 5 million vehicles delivered in the US.
And 10 million is definitely many years in the future.
I know fanboys think it will be by Thanksgiving, but all the factory ramping, labor shortages, battery shortages, lack of service people, etc, etc. will slow Tesla's growth at some point. Not to mention we don't know if Elon will still be involved in automotive 5 years from now.

Ford is not Kodak or Polaroid - yet. (But could be if they switch to EVs as slow as someone like Stellantis) Plus Ford has an ace up its sleeve. Two actually. One is the federal government. The Ford Unions will extract help from the politicians in DC when the time comes. The 2nd is the fact Ford is trying to transition. I have ridden in the Lightning twice now. It is a nice vehicle, and will sell. It is a real vehicle and only a year wait! LOL Despite a non-existent charging network. I do believe Tesla's profitability will forever more kick Ford's butt. But Ford might be able to survive...albeit they might be eating ramen, while Tesla is having lobster.

On the other hand, I could see GM being the next Blockbuster video.

GM is talking a lot, but at the factory level they are still clinging to ICE.

GM will probably go through bankruptcy protection in about 5 years. And companies can function for quite awhile in bankruptcy. Plus get government help I assume. So they can last until at least 2030. They might be a lot smaller company though. .......

 

[Crissa]

I think GM is in the better position. Ford has vehicles out now, so they're avoiding the bad look... Since the news doesn't seem to count how many they make, just the number of models. But Ford's battery production is more in doubt.

So we'll see who'll be where. My big prediction is Stellantis is probably no longer going to be a major US manufacturer in the next 5 years.

-Crissa

 

[GnarlyDudeLive]

Elon has stated twice that 250,000 Cybertrucks per year is their goal but I think that is sandbagging.

I completely agree on two fronts, one they likely can exceed those numbers with their initial equipment investment and if demand rises, they will not simple ignore it, they will expand the equipment to reach even higher rates. They have a goal of 20 million vehicle run rate per year, they will need the CT in huge numbers to help achieve that rate. 250k per year in 2030 will not help achieve that goal.

 

[Cybr on]

OK, got it. You are saying you would prefer NO time estimate over one that does not have 100% certainty.

Clue: Don't interpret a time estimate to be an iron-clad guarantee. In fact, Tesla specifically discloses they cannot and do not provide timeframe guarantees, same as all automakers who take pre-orders.

You seem awfully upset which is why I recommended you not rely on other people but instead make your own EV. That way you can provide a guaranteed time estimate to yourself! LOL!

You handled that very well.

Could not of said that any better.

 

[Cybr on]

If you understood the effect of being able to grow production by 50-80% annually, then you would understand that there comes a time when Ford will have to compete with Tesla.

And if you understood the financial fragility of Ford when it comes to declining sales of profitable vehicles and how that impacts volume efficiencies, then you would understand we are looking at a situation that will likely snowball out of control for Ford a lot sooner than 2030. This has been evident for years but is only recently becoming apparent to Ford.

This is how disruption works and companies with long, storied histories are not given a free pass. In fact, those are the companies that facilitate disruption because they have taken their eye off the ball while telling everyone they are the ones who know how to make cars in high volume. Look at Kodak, the company that invented the first digital camera but didn't want to commercialize it because it would gut their film sales and processing services.

Ford didn't want to transition to EV's too quickly for very similiar reasons and now they are in a very similar position to Kodak immediately before they went bankrupt.

As EV proponents, we can be sad that Ford is not well positioned to make the transition to EV's but that is not necessarily the right way for EV supporters to look at it, particularly when you consider that it's Ford's own doing and the company doing the disrupting has been scaling EV production by 50%-80% for years and plans to continue doing exactly that. One of these companies is fit to lead, the other has already demonstrated they are not fit to lead. New car buyers cannot afford to let them lead. I suppose with enough government handouts they might be nursed along for years but that is no way to run an economy.

Again, your just batting a 1000

 

[Cybr on]

I think GM is in the better position. Ford has vehicles out now, so they're avoiding the bad look... Since the news doesn't seem to count how many they make, just the number of models. But Ford's battery production is more in doubt.

Totally agree here as well. Ford thinks like Pg&E. Like they are the only company that can do the job. Ahhhh
NO. Either grow while making decisions with the nights at the round table or parish.
I think pac bell had a similar nearsightedness. where are they?

 

[Ogre]

If you understood the effect of being able to grow production by 50-80% annually, then you would understand that there comes a time when Ford will have to compete with Tesla.

Yep. But I don’t think we even need compounded growth here. Just producing 250k Cybertrucks a year will be extremely disruptive. The closer they come to launch pricing, the more disruptive it will be. If FSD ever delivers, it will make things even crazier. If we do get 50%+ growth, it’ll rip the truck industry right open.

And if you understood the financial fragility of Ford when it comes to declining sales of profitable vehicles and how that impacts volume efficiencies, then you would understand we are looking at a situation that will likely snowball out of control for Ford a lot sooner than 2030. This has been evident for years but is only recently becoming apparent to Ford.

Yep. When professional drivers start to realize how much time and money they can save by switching to electric trucks, demand for ICE work trucks is going to fall off a cliff. Edge cases where people need to tow loads hundreds of miles commonly might linger, but the super profitable F150 will be savaged.

Ford doesn’t make money on EVs. They need to figure this problem out fast and they are at a huge disadvantage trying to source materials to ramp up their EV fleet.

 

[Cybr on]

funny thing about Ford is they were buying patents from people who were creating electric vehicles far beyond my time. They have always had opportunities. Now what? I’m supposed to give a shit? We all know it’s about money, but damn, throw out your dignity too and then want it back when things get out of YOUR HANDS? Lol. No thank you. Keep the trolls coming . No worky worky for me. And I don’t try to pound my chest with some of you who are much smarter than me here and some wiser. I enjoy the good read and learn a lot. I appreciate the positive discussions. Did not mean to offend anyone. Just sharing my silly thoughts.

 

[CyberGus]

too soon?

 

[Crissa]

funny thing about Ford is they were buying patents from people who were creating electric vehicles far beyond my time. They have always had opportunities. Now what? I’m supposed to give a shit? We all know it’s about money, but damn, throw out your dignity too and then want it back when things get out of YOUR HANDS? Lol. No thank you. Keep the trolls coming . No worky worky for me. And I don’t try to pound my chest with some of you who are much smarter than me here and some wiser. I enjoy the good read and learn a lot. I appreciate the positive discussions. Did not mean to offend anyone. Just sharing my silly thoughts.

Same for GM. It would have been viable to make short-range cheap EVs with NiMHs, but they had bought the patent.

-Crissa

 

[charliemagpie]

GM split into 2. Moved losses and low profit lines into one company which went bankrupt, and the surviving company is what we see today.

How that can happen without people going to jail is beyond my understanding.


But the point :

Ford has already formed a new company called Ford Blue, which makes, and I presume, owns the Mach-E.

The distributor network will be bypassed, Ford blue will have a pulse, but the old Ford will die.


GM is making EV's in Mexico, you can bet your bottom dollar, suppliers are not the same people who supply ICE.
And it is creating partnerships this time around !.

Wonder why GM partners with all and sundry ? Now you know... they will put in 1 billion of the old companies funds, so hopefully 100 million is carried over for the new company. If it loses the whole billion, it does not matter, that money is lost anyway. Is it money laundering?. i.e. Hello Nicola (that business got too hot to hide)



So there we have it, both companies have prepared for closure. They are going about it in different ways. But their respective roadmaps seem clear.

In GM's case, why do Unions remain so quiet?

Sponsored