Tesla not following reservation order numbers

[cybercoffee]

I don’t think it’s merely near a service center

I think it’s largely near Fremont or Austin,** the only places that can do deep trouble shooting, or to which all the units can be brought back in if a build-wide reconnoiter is needed

**understanding some sprinkling of non-CA and non-TX invites have occurred, I think some are still well within range of Fremont (eg Reno, NV), and some others *may* be flukes or miss-matches

they could also just be exceptions to a general rule that, on the whole, Tesla would like most of these early units ‘nearby’ for more than just a service center

but, that’s wet finger in air talk

I feel like if this were the case, there would be way more norcal than socal. but looking at the tracker there's plenty of socal

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[Jhodgesatmb]

I feel like if this were the case, there would be way more norcal than socal. but looking at the tracker there's plenty of socal

Maybe he didn’t include Hawthorne in this list by accident?

 

[Bkb13]

Sorry guys. My gut says the address not being sync’d from the phone app and website is a large part of the reason that people did not get selected.

 

[CyberTruck46290]

Sorry guys. My gut says the address not being sync’d from the phone app and website is a large part of the reason that people did not get selected.

Both of my accounts have Los Angeles as location and has been listed since the creation of the accounts. I think it's just random.

 

[Bkb13]

Both of my accounts have Los Angeles as location and has been listed since the creation of the accounts. I think it's just random.

Understood. Thanks for the details.

Do you have another Tesla?

 

[rizvend]

It seems like they’re taking the early orders (24hrs), weighting them heavily toward CA/TX, and drawing them at random. The “first day” orders are essentially in the same timeframe.

Exact same reason why I changed my address to the Midwest to buy some time. Fingers crossed. ?

 

[cvalue13]

I feel like if this were the case, there would be way more norcal than socal. but looking at the tracker there's plenty of socal

yeah I mean, any one guess about how this is going and why is subject to plenty of counterfactuals

I’m just looking for the guess that has the best fit to the data

And, I guess, the data just doesn’t seem to fit the idea that they’re fulfilling orders of people near mere service centers. There’s at least one in every state, and for most states several service centers.

Eg, there are 7 service centers in WA and 4 in Oregon, but this sites order tracker hasn’t seen an entry from either state - despite those being among the states with largest Tesla car purchases

Meanwhile, the nor cal vs so cal observation you make ALSO isn’t explained by the hypo that the trucks are pointed towards areas with service centers - there are plenty of those is not cal, too.

Could be an artifact of the invite process, or that there was more uptake of early CT orders in SoCal vs NorCal, or a combo.

(And separately, I know for a fact they began at least the earliest deliveries heavily weighted to CA / TX precisely to keep them close to Fremont/Austin for access reasons.)



All-in-all, here’s a possible future of these non-CA/non-TX Foundation orders: Tesla simply keeps them at the back of the delivery queue, and doesn’t delivery them until Tesla’s ready/comfortable to distribute the trucks further away from Fremont/Austin

people are ~assuming that the order of getting an invitation will dictate the order of delivery. That’s a bit like assuming the a pre-order reservation # will dictate the order of getting to configure.

It’s possible that, despite Tesla having sent and accepted Foundation configurations to places outside CA/TX, Tesla won’t be delivering to some or all of those places anytime soon.

after all, the configuration email language makes a clear announcement of where deliveries are presently anticipated to occur for now, even if configuration emails are being sent elsewhere:

So, where our Canada friends are concerned, or even say our other seemingly one-off state configurations are concerned:

for all we know, when it comes time to organize delivery Tesla at that point corrects an error (if there’s been one), or instead Tesla simply doesn’t prioritize their delivery for months on end


While subject to counterfactuals, quite aside from where order invitations are going, I think we’ll see the earliest deliveries going to places geographically close to Fremont and Austin … and over time as Tesla gets more confident, expanding in a radius out from there

 

[cybercoffee]

Sorry guys. My gut says the address not being sync’d from the phone app and website is a large part of the reason that people did not get selected.

I wonder…I got the email and configured, and only after people started pointing out the whole address thing did I look to see if my address was entered on the website. It was blank. So i put it in. But Tesla for sure knows where I live because our Y was delivered under my account, let alone the billing address in the app.

 

[cvalue13]

It was blank. So i put it in. But Tesla for sure knows where I live because our Y was delivered under my account, let alone the billing address in the app.

yeah makes sense

but could be a different story for those of us with neither a prior Tesla, nor the app, nor with our address previously in the website


lots of variables making for lots of different buckets of people in various states of relevant info

 

[CyberTruck46290]

Understood. Thanks for the details.

Do you have another Tesla?

I have a leased Model 3 on my account.

 

[Cybertruck 1974]

Hey, did you check your order when your friend said he got an email? I didn't get an email and I have this on my account for 2 weeks now....check and get back...

 

[mfg310]

Again, matching addresses on online and in the app cannot be the sole reason for being picked, as myself and other have posted ITT. It certainly might be a part of whatever algorithm (or random selection) they are using.

 

[SolarWizard]

Some of us, like myself, have always been on the early adopter bandwagon. Just like with the iphone years ago and the early Model X's. Whether it's willing to pay more up front to have cool tech, to be the "cool kid" or both, those people are willing to take risks associated with early adoption.

Anybody buying in the first 18 months lands squarely in the early adopter category

 

[UnRich1]

I don’t think I’ve seen anyone who ordered three days after the event and is 11280… I ordered the morning after and am 11282 which is 74,00 and aligns with every other person I’ve seen share their number.

His email in his inbox from “[email protected]” titled “Thank you for your order” is dated 11/24/19? I would verify and not rely on memory if you haven’t already. Still strange he got his invite before you based on number unless he owns a bunch of Teslas + stock + referrals or something.

I ordered mine on 11-23-19, my number is, 11291

I would note a few additional possibilities:
1) Tesla may have Separate CA and TX allocations (never said they did not). We should not assume a 112787 from CA is "ahead" of a 112801 in TX. May be two different lists.
2) I still think it is significantly based on proximity to a CyberTruck qualified Service Center. I expect Tesla has a dozen or fewer SCs identified as initial CT qualified locations (including body shops) and they are prioritizing folks that are near those.

Just speculation, of course...

I received my confirmation on 23rd of November, 2019. When I ordered it I was still in the Foreign Service, stationed in Warsaw, Poland, so my postal address would likely have been a DPO address out of New York. I ordered the tri motor with the works. My prefix (I’m assuming it’s a prefix) is, RN1129. I ordered mine before some others that have a number beginning with 1128, or 1127. Could it be that the eight and the seven designate Texas and California? Just a thought.

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