Tesla's Cybertruck VIN Activation Tracker (NOT Customer VIN Allocations)

[Phones And Drones]

+40 yesterday is awesome. Hopefully that keeps up today and more later in the week. Got to start seeing VINs soon, right….right?!?!? ?

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[cvalue13]

+40 yesterday is awesome. Hopefully that keeps up today and more later in the week. Got to start seeing VINs soon, right….right?!?!? ?

at this point, enough VINs have been activated and transports left FGTX that it seems one or a mix of things may be going on:

(1) deliveries are ramping up but only to people who don’t talk about it publicly (def not the crowd on this forum)

(2) trucks are being held pending some signal from Tesla to begin releasing

or (3) the Cybertruck is in fact a figment of our imaginations, and we’re all in the portion of a simulation where this forum is a primary character

 

[Phones And Drones]

at this point, enough VINs have been activated and transports left FGTX that it seems one or a mix of things may be going on:

(1) deliveries are ramping up but only to people who don’t talk about it publicly (def not the crowd on this forum)

(2) trucks are being held pending some signal from Tesla to begin releasing

or (3) the Cybertruck is in face a figment of our imaginations, and we’re all in the portion of a simulation where this forum is a primary character

At this point I’m unsure which mix is happening haha. But I seriously appreciate your hard work running this daily

 

[cvalue13]

At this point I’m unsure which mix is happening haha. But I seriously appreciate your hard work running this daily

For weeks now, most thanks goes to @newwave1331 for making the VIN activation tracking possible, and outcomes relayed/organized.

Me and @JBee are just on the back porch yelling a few ideas into the kitchen and pontificating on the resulting meal @newwave1331 keeps pumping out.

 

[newwave1331]

We are currently up to VIN 1003 active (25 AWD) as of 12:05pm update.

 

[cvalue13]

We are currently up to VIN 1003 active (25 AWD) as of 12:05pm update.

for shits and giggles, we need a little "to the goal" bar graph that shows the remaining VINs between now and exceeding the 1,000 apparently FS allotted slots

whenever it is exceeded, we wont have any clue what it means,* but we'll at least know that somewhere out in the world is the answer to some questions is about to be built



*we cant tell from the VIN if that build will be an FS AWD or a normal AWD

 

[alex454]

I wish we knew how many Cybertrucks are going to employees. Tesla has 128k employees ? I suppose there are many other contractors? In addition, there is SpaceX and Starlink. I wonder if they all get priority ?? Despite the huge employee base, many of the employees in service, manufacturing, and sales roles may not opt for such an expensive vehicle? Just throwing out guesses.

 

[cvalue13]

I wish we knew how many Cybertrucks are going to employees. Tesla has 128k employees ? I suppose there are many other contractors? In addition, there is SpaceX and Starlink. I wonder if they all get priority ?? Despite the huge employee base, many of the employees in service, manufacturing, and sales roles may not opt for such an expensive vehicle? Just throwing out guesses.

Don't know all that, but some additional info/observations:

Some employees were getting invites and able to confirm orders well before the Nov. 30 delivery event. So even if they don't all get priority strictly speaking, there may be a 'line' ahead of normie orders.

As for employees getting priority, even if not all employees get priority, one can bet that more senior folks (or their families) get priority.

Additionally, it would make sense for Tesla to prioritize as many employees as possible, not only to keep early build learnings "nearby," but also because/if Tesla wants to have nearby test subjects for other accessories/features like the powershare, extended range battery, etc. That can range from eg senior folks and "hey when you get your truck we'll also give you xyz," to less senior folks and "if you buy a cybertruck and ALSO buy powershare, we'll prioritize your order."


lastly and finally, no doubt that many tesla employees with RNs, regardless of priority, where not all equally able or willing to pull trigger on the FS upcharge (if not the base MSRP)

 

[newwave1331]

for shits and giggles, we need a little "to the goal" bar graph that shows the remaining VINs between now and exceeding the 1,000 apparently FS allotted slots

whenever it is exceeded, we wont have any clue what it means,* but we'll at least know that somewhere out in the world is the answer to some questions is about to be built



*we cant tell from the VIN if that build will be an FS AWD or a normal AWD

If you look at the WeekOf/Day of the Week Chart, there is a total at the bottle of 496. So if its out of 1000 (which no one can confirm), just move the decimal. 49.6%

The trend is definitely showing AWD foundation orders will 100% activated within Q1. What will happen between the AWD Foundation completion and Cyberbeast Foundation (in back half of 2024)?

 

[Bartman]

Wish they would just give one to MotorTrend and one to Car and Driver, so we can get some good objective reviews while we wait. Only reviewer I really trust, so far, is Kyle Connor, with Out of Spec.... Taking most all others with a grain (or lots more) of salt....

 

[greggertruck]

If you look at the WeekOf/Day of the Week Chart, there is a total at the bottle of 496. So if its out of 1000 (which no one can confirm), just move the decimal. 49.6%

The trend is definitely showing AWD foundation orders will 100% activated within Q1. What will happen between the AWD Foundation completion and Cyberbeast Foundation (in back half of 2024)?

Thanks for all you do @newwave1331 - seriously. Appreciate your brains and boredom.

Starting to think we will see regular customer deliveries in the next week or so. Between so many VINs and also the customers being contacted to finalize trade in details.... we gotta be very close.

 

[scottf200]

For weeks now, most thanks goes to @newwave1331 for making the VIN activation tracking possible, and outcomes relayed/organized.

Me and @JBee are just on the back porch yelling a few ideas into the kitchen and pontificating on the resulting meal @newwave1331 keeps pumping out.

Thanks to that one guy for pointing out the Bloomberg work
https://www.cybertruckownersclub.co...read-updated-12-23-23.8989/page-5#post-211412

 

[donnyb]

Thanks for all you do @newwave1331 - seriously. Appreciate your brains and boredom.

Starting to think we will see regular customer deliveries in the next week or so. Between so many VINs and also the customers being contacted to finalize trade in details.... we gotta be very close.

My wife was at the Tesla in Dublin, Ca. yesterday. I was trying to find out why my CT will be delivered in Dublin and not one of the three Tesla service centers in my area (Sacramento). A staff member she talked to told her only 3 service centers in California are getting CT right now, Fremont, Dublin, and I can't remember the third one but I think it's down south. She also asked how many CT had been delivered at the Dublin facility, he said about 20. He thinks most were Tesla employees. He was also very confident I would receive my CT anywhere between January and March. This seems like pretty good news.

 

[newwave1331]

Wish they would just give one to MotorTrend and one to Car and Driver, so we can get some good objective reviews while we wait. Only reviewer I really trust, so far, is Kyle Connor, with Out of Spec.... Taking most all others with a grain (or lots more) of salt....

Out of Spec is 100x more objective/honest feedback than you will get from MT or C&D. Kyle was stopped from doing a towing test otherwise I was expecting a TSLA buying opportunity .

 

[cvalue13]

The trend is definitely showing AWD foundation orders will 100% activated within Q1. What will happen between the AWD Foundation completion and Cyberbeast Foundation (in back half of 2024)?

this is instead more of what meant, with respect to the “goal” bar chart for AWD

Of the 1,000 VINs, I think we have a decent handle on which “blocks” within there are allocated to AWD FS specifically.

It’s the sub-set of those blocks of AWD VINs that will be interesting to watch fill up - because they’re going to get to that AWD-specific tipping point pretty soon (at this rate, a few more weeks).


A separate sub-set are the blocks reserved for Beast builds, which are comparatively empty and “filling” more than slowly. At current pace, they wouldn’t build these Beast VINs even by end of year. Of course they surely intend to break that loose, but remains to be seen how soon - though not apparently before Q2, if going by invite EDD of “mid to late 24” (assuming the 1K cap on all FS, and the so the sub-set for Beast FS).



So yeah, definitely a tale of two different games playing out as between AWD FS and Beast FS. And if there’s a cap of 1K, it’s the AWD builds that will hit it first/soon. But if instead they bust that cap, and just keep building AWD FS, we might expect to see simultaneously:

(a) VIN activations keep rising past the current AWD blocks (eg past 1221), while at the same time

(b) we’ve not seen go out any invites to configure non-FS AWD

But again, even that scenario would be imperfect indication. Because here’s just one scenario where we don’t see normal configuration invites go out but we keep seeing AWD VINs activated, and STIILL don’t know for sure if more FS are being built:

Imagine the following plan/strategy by Tesla:

(1) they don’t intend to configure/deliver any normal AWD until beginning of Q2, but when they do flip that switch they want as many units in hand as possible so that the first quarter of normal retail production is as stuffed as possible

(2) in which case, in a few weeks they do build the last AWD FS, but keep activating and building AWDs - but begin stockpiling them to be finally configured to owners nearer to end of Q1

(3) there aren’t that many line-dependent options in an AWD that can’t be swapped/modified quickly for a turnaround to a later configuration

In the above scenario, the play on the calendar by Tesla at 40K feet is lossibky something like:

1st Quarter: continue sales of FS units until desired number of FS is reached, build them; thereafter, begin stockpiling units of normal AWD (for Beasts, they’ll still be building FS slowly); deliveries of FS only to employees/VIPs (?)

Just Before 2nd Quarter: send out invites for normal AWD configurations (maybe even normal Beast, but with long EDD)

2nd Quarter: quickly deliver all the backlogged FS and first normal AWD units to the normies, and be off to a running start towards a Q2 financial report that says “we realized a lot of revenue-offsetting capex by starting deliveries to normies, but look how many were already delivering in this same quarter)



Speaking of the FSAWD builds over next few weeks … in the next few weeks we also aren’t too far from … ‘23 Q4/YE Earnings Report, which should be very interesting

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