Tesla's Cybertruck VIN Activation Tracker (NOT Customer VIN Allocations)

[cvalue13]

I wanted to get a Cybertruck production rate that I could use to see what the ramp rate is and was directed (by @cvalue13) to the NHTSA VIN Decoder site. I looked up the Restful APIs on the site and wrote a program to decode VINs sequentially to find where they stop, but after spending a few hours yesterday getting this code working, my calls (either to DecodeVin or to DecodeVinValues) never fail (i.e., they always return HTTP_OK). The one glitch was the 9th position (check bit), so I ran an iteration to check all of them (0-9 plus X). Clearly I am not checking the right field. That, or I am not even using the right API. Can you tell me which API you are using and/or which field you check to tell whether a VIN has actually been produced, because you seem to be able to tell. Of course, you could write your own production rate code and get me off the hook...

If i understand what you’re saying, my response would be:

the site sends a return that it’s a theoretically valid VIN number in its construction, with one webpage

It responds with a different webpage response, if it’s both a valid VIN and it has in fact been associated with a CyberTruck:

meanwhile you seem to be wanting to reinvent @newwave1331’s wheel a bit here - though I understand if you’re simply wanting the self-confidence in your own ability to replicate

Or I’m just not understanding your post I’m responding to, which is very possible

Sponsored

 

[CyberGus]

I wanted to get a Cybertruck production rate that I could use to see what the ramp rate is and was directed (by @cvalue13) to the NHTSA VIN Decoder site. I looked up the Restful APIs on the site and wrote a program to decode VINs sequentially to find where they stop, but after spending a few hours yesterday getting this code working, my calls (either to DecodeVin or to DecodeVinValues) never fail (i.e., they always return HTTP_OK). The one glitch was the 9th position (check bit), so I ran an iteration to check all of them (0-9 plus X). Clearly I am not checking the right field. That, or I am not even using the right API. Can you tell me which API you are using and/or which field you check to tell whether a VIN has actually been produced, because you seem to be able to tell. Of course, you could write your own production rate code and get me off the hook...

You could save yourself some grief and calculate the check digit, instead of brute-forcing all the possible combinations.

https://myvindecoder.com/vin-decoding/check-digit/

 

[cvalue13]

BTW, @newwave1331

I may have forgotten this, or just missed it among all the goings-on of the last two weeks, but:

At what point to the VINs start coming back as 2023 models vs 2024 models?

 

[newwave1331]

BTW, @newwave1331

I may have forgotten this, or just missed it among all the goings-on of the last two weeks, but:

At what point to the VINs start coming back as 2023 models vs 2024 models?

2023 (P for digit 10) were on the RCs 600-724 (I never went back to try and find the 500s or other betas)

2024 (R for digit 10) started on the 801-906 MCs and 1200-1219 (showroom units)

 

[cvalue13]

2023 (P for digit 10) were on the RCs 600-724 (I never went back to try and find the 500s or other betas)

2024 (R for digit 10) started on the 801-906 MCs and 1200-1219 (showroom units)

great, that was my (poor) memory - thanks for bringing it down

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

If i understand what you’re saying, my response would be:

the site sends a return that it’s a theoretically valid VIN number in its construction, with one webpage

It responds with a different webpage response, if it’s both a valid VIN and it has in fact been associated with a CyberTruck:

meanwhile you seem to be wanting to reinvent @newwave1331’s wheel a bit here - though I understand if you’re simply wanting the self-confidence in your own ability to replicate

Or I’m just not understanding your post I’m responding to, which is very possible

It may well be that I am reinventing the wheel and that is certainly not my intention. I tried the web service you mentioned and it does seem to work but I am trying to build this tool as a program that will invoke the web service rather than punching in 'possible' VINs and dealing with the NHTSA authentication crap. @newwave1331 's approach uses the Tesla vin-recall-search URL but if it is a web service I haven't figured it out yet and they do not seem to provide an API for it. So far I have not found the API for the NHTSA recall site, only the site itself. Still looking...

 

[newwave1331]

30 new vins

Running Foundation Totals: 161 AWD; 16 Cyberbeast = 177 total

Cyberbeast

7G2CEHEE0RA000008

Cyberbeast

7G2CEHEE2RA000012

AWD	7G2CEHED1RA000512
AWD	7G2CEHED3RA000513
AWD	7G2CEHED5RA000514
AWD	7G2CEHED7RA000515

AWD	7G2CEHED5RA000528
AWD	7G2CEHED7RA000529
AWD	7G2CEHED5RA000531
AWD	7G2CEHED7RA000532
AWD	7G2CEHED9RA000533
AWD	7G2CEHED0RA000534
AWD	7G2CEHED2RA000535
AWD	7G2CEHEDXRA000539
AWD	7G2CEHED6RA000540
AWD	7G2CEHED1RA000543
AWD	7G2CEHED5RA000545
AWD	7G2CEHED9RA000547
AWD	7G2CEHED2RA000549
AWD	7G2CEHED9RA000550
AWD	7G2CEHED0RA000551
AWD	7G2CEHED2RA000552
AWD	7G2CEHED4RA000553
AWD	7G2CEHED6RA000554
AWD	7G2CEHED8RA000555
AWD	7G2CEHEDXRA000556
AWD	7G2CEHED1RA000557
AWD	7G2CEHED3RA000558
AWD	7G2CEHED5RA000559
AWD	7G2CEHED1RA000560

 

[newwave1331]

25 more AWD vins

Running total: 177 AWD, 16 Beast = 193

AWD	7G2CEHED3RA000561
AWD	7G2CEHED5RA000562
AWD	7G2CEHED7RA000563
AWD	7G2CEHED9RA000564
AWD	7G2CEHED0RA000565
AWD	7G2CEHED2RA000566
AWD	7G2CEHED4RA000567
AWD	7G2CEHED6RA000568
AWD	7G2CEHED8RA000569
AWD	7G2CEHED4RA000570
AWD	7G2CEHED6RA000571
AWD	7G2CEHED8RA000572
AWD	7G2CEHEDXRA000573
AWD	7G2CEHED1RA000574
AWD	7G2CEHED3RA000575
AWD	7G2CEHED5RA000576
AWD	7G2CEHED7RA000577
AWD	7G2CEHED9RA000578
AWD	7G2CEHED0RA000579
AWD	7G2CEHED7RA000580
AWD	7G2CEHED9RA000581
AWD	7G2CEHED0RA000582
AWD	7G2CEHED2RA000583
AWD	7G2CEHED4RA000584
AWD	7G2CEHED6RA000585

 

[cvalue13]

25 more AWD vins

Running total: 177 AWD, 16 Beast = 193

AWD	7G2CEHED3RA000561
AWD	7G2CEHED5RA000562
AWD	7G2CEHED7RA000563
AWD	7G2CEHED9RA000564
AWD	7G2CEHED0RA000565
AWD	7G2CEHED2RA000566
AWD	7G2CEHED4RA000567
AWD	7G2CEHED6RA000568
AWD	7G2CEHED8RA000569
AWD	7G2CEHED4RA000570
AWD	7G2CEHED6RA000571
AWD	7G2CEHED8RA000572
AWD	7G2CEHEDXRA000573
AWD	7G2CEHED1RA000574
AWD	7G2CEHED3RA000575
AWD	7G2CEHED5RA000576
AWD	7G2CEHED7RA000577
AWD	7G2CEHED9RA000578
AWD	7G2CEHED0RA000579
AWD	7G2CEHED7RA000580
AWD	7G2CEHED9RA000581
AWD	7G2CEHED0RA000582
AWD	7G2CEHED2RA000583
AWD	7G2CEHED4RA000584
AWD	7G2CEHED6RA000585

@newwave1331 not at all to expect or demand, but by way of ideas for you to take or leave (and do with your precious time what you will):

I believe we have a good handle on when the first Foundarion + Showroom units began being built

and now we have these occasional tranches of VINS being submitted to NHSTA, which would be forward looking submissions - but would still give a rough proxy for pace and volume

could these VIN tranches be graphed by date, such as to show (in step-change tranches) the pace and volume of VIN submissions?

that won’t tell us:

• how many trucks have been actually built to completion at date X (because VINS submissions can and do proceed actual build date)

• whether Tesla is beginning builds of the units in the numerical order of the VIN submissions (because they could, for example, decide to prioritize building one config over another for a period of time)

• how long a given build is taking (eg between build start and final post-build sign-off)


but that VIN submission chart would tell us:

• on a given date, how many total units Tesla is anticipating building (in some unknown forward-looking time frame)

• across the dates captured in the chart, the rough pace and trajectory of the step-changes in that expectation

• broken out for dual vs tri, a double-click into Tesla’s expectations / step changes in build blend, pace, etc


thoughts?

so for example, for the entries you found today, the chart would move to the right with a new entry showing a bar graph for each of Dual/tri VIN found new that date, then a third bar for total historical dual/tri VINs to that date, then a fourth bar for total CTs to that date.

 

[scottf200]

@newwave1331 not at all to expect or demand, but by way of ideas for you to take or leave (and do with your precious time what you will):

I believe we have a good handle on when the first Foundarion + Showroom units began being built

and now we have these occasional tranches of VINS being submitted to NHSTA, which would be forward looking submissions - but would still give a rough proxy for pace and volume

could these VIN tranches be graphed by date, such as to show (in step-change tranches) the pace and volume of VIN submissions?

FYI, Bloomberg was well known for this with the Model 3 ramp.

Website:
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/tesla-model-3-vin-tracker/

 

[cvalue13]

FYI, Bloomberg was well known for this with the Model 3 ramp.

Website:
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/tesla-model-3-vin-tracker/

excellent

and (until Bloomberg might do the same with CT), their Model 3 data would give us one reference point for the relative trends

see eg the below selected dates and corresponding figures

 

[newwave1331]

could these VIN tranches be graphed by date, such as to show (in step-change tranches) the pace and volume of VIN submissions?

Yes. Now that I have a method to cover a wide range of vins each day, I am logging the date found. Before the last couple of days, I was just finding them by playing battleship. Now I know what day a new vin appears.

This is showing the running total of foundation VINs by each day. I'll stop sharing the actual VINs now that I have proven I can successfully find them. As we get farer along, I'll move to a weekly consolidation. Any ideas of how to track them getting into customer's hands or confirmation of completion?

 

[cvalue13]

Any ideas of how to track them getting into customer's hands or confirmation of completion?

nothing as reliable and accurate as the input side (VIN registration)

to get an equally reliable handle on the back side, I think will require Tesla’s quarterly reporting data

 

[newwave1331]

Well 24 is pretty close to the new found vins each day. It would be interesting if photos match up to the vins I'm finding.

 

[cvalue13]

Well 24 is pretty close to the new found vins each day. It would be interesting if photos match up to the vins I'm finding.

Not seeing the material relevance

If for example, a period of 5 successive weeks, they both (A) register 20 future VINs wrt a period 4 weeks in the future, and (B) sepearaeky happen to be producing 20 units that week, then this parity of future VIN# and present build rate is basically happenstance

on the 6th week, they could register 60VINs for a period still 4 weeks in the future, but for next 3 weeks still only be producing 20 trucks a week

Remember also, conversely, we presently have a large backlog of registered VINs. So they could have been producing only 20 trucks a week up until this week, when they’ve step-changed to now 30 trucks a day, catching up # builds to #VINs. Then tomorrow they could register 2000 more VINs.


regardless, I’d be confident there are a number of trucks being stored inside (or at least a designated area capable of storing large numbers inside)

Sponsored