charliemagpie

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It is interesting to speculate about the ramp speed ....Will it be like the model y or model X. I think it will be like the Model Y.....I believe the Stainless-Steel bending problem will be solved. Also Testla has the giant giga press and has a lot of experience with assembly lines.
Yep

I'm not an engineer, but if they can build a 9 Ton Gigapress, which in itself is the next generation of the then equally impressive 6 Ton press, imo....

..they can build a 1000 ton machine which could bend that 304 like tinfoil.
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ED_SFO

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I think we will see what i list below. I think with one giga press the castings are going to become the bottleneck eventually. I think munro mentioned a 2-3 minute cycle time for the castings. So to make a front and rear casting thats 4-6 minutes. Obviously they aren't switching molds but you get it. That's only about 2500 complete truck castings per week if its running 24/7. I bet Idra is already building them a second gigacasting machine for the CT.

I think Elon needs to recover money right now. The quad motor will likely be the most profitable and will have less demand as many dream about owning a $85k vehicle, but not as many will actually pull the trigger. So starting with the quad makes sense to me. I have a buddy that was just offered a new Model X plaid for around $90k (he knows the right people) and he makes well over $200k per year. Even with $20k down your still going to land around $1500-$1600/mo with insurance. He said forget it. Even though it was an incredible deal and he got a deal on a Model Y performance instead. Not as many people will actually go for that quad motor when they see the price- especially if the economy keeps trending in the direction that it is.

Dual motor SR- 300 mi- $65k
Dual motor LR- 500mi- $75k
Quad motor LR- 500 mi- $85k
Quad will be at least $100k...if there is a tri 85k sounds about right...other numbers looks about correct too...hopping for a dual 500 mi 70k truck b4 options. We will see!
 

CyberCFP

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I have no prediction, and I admittedly have not been keeping as close an eye on production and how Tesla has address the legality of the Cybertruck as closely as you all, but I have some questions that I'm hoping someone can answer. I apologize if any of the following have been discussed ad nauseam.

1) There obviously have to be airbags. Has Musk addressed this?
2) Will the NHTSA allow for the side mirrors to be easily removed?
3) The headlights on every truck we've seen, to my knowledge, aren't legal. Is there going to be a change to them?
 

Bill906

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1) There obviously have to be airbags. Has Musk addressed this?
If it's a light duty truck it will have to have airbags. There is a truck rating that doesn't require airbags but we don't think the CT will be in that category. Regardless, we have no reason to think the production model will not have airbags, any more than thinking it won't have seatbelts.

2) Will the NHTSA allow for the side mirrors to be easily removed?
Depends on the definition of "easily". With the right tool, all side mirrors are easily removed. 🔨

3) The headlights on every truck we've seen, to my knowledge, aren't legal. Is there going to be a change to them?
Why do you think they are not legal? Because it's a solid line all the way across like an old Mercury Sable?

Tesla Cybertruck Welcome to 2023, The Year of the Cybertruck (Predictions?) 1673018761519
 

CyberGus

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I have no prediction, and I admittedly have not been keeping as close an eye on production and how Tesla has address the legality of the Cybertruck as closely as you all, but I have some questions that I'm hoping someone can answer. I apologize if any of the following have been discussed ad nauseam.

1) There obviously have to be airbags. Has Musk addressed this?
2) Will the NHTSA allow for the side mirrors to be easily removed?
3) The headlights on every truck we've seen, to my knowledge, aren't legal. Is there going to be a change to them?
  1. There will be airbags. Lots. No specific details provided by Tesla.
  2. NHTSA dgaf about mirror removability.
  3. Not sure why you believe the headlights are not legal. It's separate lights left and right with a highbeam lightbar inbetween.
 
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NJturtlePower

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I think some CT's will de delivered in 2023.

Pricing will be between $1 and $150k across trims.

And YES, it'll have 4 wheels, a couple doors, mirrors and even airbags. 🙄

Tell me I'm wrong... :LOL:
 
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It is interesting to speculate about the ramp speed ....Will it be like the model y or model X. I think it will be like the Model Y.....I believe the Stainless-Steel bending problem will be solved. Also Testla has the giant giga press and has a lot of experience with assembly lines.
I think it was solved a long time ago and we just don’t know what that solution is.
 

Mythrainder

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Seems increasingly likely we’ll see at least a few trucks roll off the line this year so I thought a thread where we make predictions about how this all plays out. My predictions are about just the Tesla stuff I think will happen that impacts the Cybertruck, but you can go more broad if you want.

I’ve deliberately stayed away from pricing guesses because they just end up in pointless debate.
  • Gigapress assembly continues and it is completed and tossing off Cybertruck castings by end of Q1.
  • 4680 ramp in Texas continues we finally see the 4680 Model Y added to the config page.
  • Sometime around March - June we see the first of the beta trucks on the road. Likely at a Supercharger.
  • First v4 Supercharger installations happen. Likely appearing at new locations rather than at existing chargers.
  • V3 Superchargers get an upgrade to 300 or 350 kW.

  • Handover party and first Cybertruck deliveries in early July — August to employees.
    • Full specs announced for the first 2 trims—AWD (dual) and LR (likely tri motor).
    • Either the Single Motor will be officially dropped or Tesla will say it’s coming later (2025 perhaps)
    • Quad motor gets renamed to Quad Plaid and gets pushed back to 2024. (See comments below)
  • Cybertruck configuration page with pricing opens October — November and customer deliveries in November - December.
  • Only 1 truck will be available in 2023. Likely the tri motor. Second trim will come in early-mid 2024.
  • Tesla delivers 5,000 trucks before year end.
I’m probably wrong about the tri motor. That said, here’s my justification. Tesla really wants to hit that 500 mile range and the only way they hit that is by having a massive battery pack or by having an extremely efficient truck. The tri motor can use the same super efficient drivetrain as the Semi. If this happens, the tri motor truck becomes the “LR” truck leaving room for a performance/ plaid trim in the form of the quad motor.

This is based loosely on how the Model 3 launch played out, plus our understanding of current state of production.
Round steering wheel option for CT?
 
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Ogre

Ogre

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Round steering wheel option for CT?
Saw they offer that on the Model S/X now.

Hopefully they‘ve figured out steer by wire and progressive steering by the time the Cybertruck is out and the yoke will be the easy and obvious choice.
 

greggertruck

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If the cheapest model really cost 65k.. im out. I might purchase one to literally resale for profit haha.
If at all possible, I'd love your reservation if it unfortunately doesn't work out for you. Please keep this in mind and consider! Seriously🙏🏻
 


Rutrow

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If at all possible, I'd love your reservation if it unfortunately doesn't work out for you. Please keep this in mind and consider! Seriously🙏🏻
"I might purchase one to literally resale for profit haha."

Despite the "haha" I think they told you they'd sell it to you at a profit. 😬
 

greggertruck

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"I might purchase one to literally resale for profit haha."

Despite the "haha" I think they told you they'd sell it to you at a profit. 😬
If you can't clear the financing, there's not a truck to resale. 🙃 I won't being buying anyones truck, but I'll take their reservation.
 

ED_SFO

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I have no prediction, and I admittedly have not been keeping as close an eye on production and how Tesla has address the legality of the Cybertruck as closely as you all, but I have some questions that I'm hoping someone can answer. I apologize if any of the following have been discussed ad nauseam.

1) There obviously have to be airbags. Has Musk addressed this?
2) Will the NHTSA allow for the side mirrors to be easily removed?
3) The headlights on every truck we've seen, to my knowledge, aren't legal. Is there going to be a change to them?
Hopefully they have projectors as the main headlight beam. They're fantastic on my Model Y.
 

tidmutt

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Good predictions already. I don't have anything useful to add.

I expect to get mine in Summer 2024. 80k in line, double motor, live in Ohio.

Still holding out hope for factory pickup and tour option over delivery. Elon was planning to make some nature park of sorts. 🤔 It would be cool if there was an on grounds off road test track for all new owners. This kind of service would slay the competition if they could pull off this type of on-site delivery experience.
Bugger... I'm about 200k in line, so likely 2025 for me. Well, we don't know how many of the first 200k will actually accept delivery, so maybe earlier. 😁
 

CyberCFP

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  1. There will be airbags. Lots. No specific details provided by Tesla.
  2. NHTSA dgaf about mirror removability.
  3. Not sure why you believe the headlights are not legal. It's separate lights left and right with a highbeam lightbar inbetween.
I read an article stating the beam connecting the lights is illegal. Someone else posted the Mercury Sable headlight beam, which is an interesting comparison.

In regards to the side view mirrors, if the NHTSA knows customers are going to remove the mirrors, and Tesla is making the car so that the mirrors can be easily removed, it seems like that could be a gray area. But hey, maybe not.
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