40,000 Production this year prediction

[TyPope]

He actually did say ‘probably the end of Q3.”

He's been wrong before but not in the direction most on here seem to be saying. The Model Y was supposed to be delivered by the Fall of 2020 yet my MY VIN is over 14,000 and we got ours on June 20th.
Tesla surprises everyone by delivering the Model Y ahead of schedule | Ars Technica

Put another way:
Tesla to Start Delivering New Model Y on Friday the 13th | Digital Trends
The first deliveries were on March 13th and 4 months later, we got number 14,###.
Okay, that's not that fast of a ramp up... 3 months to complete the first 14,000 isn't exactly fast.

If the first delivery of Cybertruck isn't until the end of September (I'll bet it's in August), But, for the sake of argument, we'll call it September. That'll put the year's production right at 15,000.

That's a bit off of my 50,000 2024 production that I predicted a bit ago. I'm going to stick to my 50,000 production estimate for this year. Maybe it's wishful thinking but they can do it. They have proven the can produce 5,000 vehicles GigaTexas. The MY ramp was severely hampered by construction happening around the line and on-site. They'll prioritize 4680 production for the CyberTruck. The process to fold metal will take a little learning but once they figure it out, it will ramp quickly. When working with paint, speeding the line up can cause problems as the paint dries but is soft at first. The timing and movement of equipment and parts at GigaTexas is now established. Adding in a new line by splitting the MY force off and using some of those trained people to prime the CT line will ensure it starts faster than the MY. Their biggest issue will be shipping Cybertrucks out because, I mean, just look at all the MYs collected around site just sitting around... getting dusty...

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[BeastSlayer]

That's a bigger number than the "insider reader" Tesla alumni, lol.

But I'll take it. Got my reservations in the same night of the launch although website kept on freezing on me. Who knows, fortune may smile on the hopeful?

 

[Oregonpaul]

I'm 14k, 23k and 26k in line for mid level 4x4 2 motor....Hope I can get it!!! Although I may wait till next year after the 'trim' and 'fit' bugs and tweaks are workrd out...

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

he didn’t say 2024

the question was what would be max production rate

neither the q or a was date-defined

He has said multiple times that they would hit full production in 2024, and that the rate would be 250K/year. What he said this week was that it might go higher than 250K/year.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Sorry, let me reframe my point and see if it helps clarify what you view as contradictory:

The F150, like the CT, converted many from ICE to BEV for the first time. Like myself. I’ve loved the idea of BEV, but need (want?) a full-sized truck. Now, here’s an option for one.

Accordingly, the Lightning has been subject to many critiques from two camps that need qualification:

First, first-time BEV buyers that don’t appreciate the quirks that are unique to all BEVs: e.g., performance effects of cold weather. Many first time BEV Tesla buyers go through these same learning curves. These folks need only education and acclimatizing.

Second, YouTubers and media outlets that are sensationalists. You yourself appear to reference these as the source of your opinions. And the CT is going to receive its fair share of lumps from these very same infuencer-wannabes. This group I ignore, about any manufacturer, and we all should.




If one of your “reasons” is towing performance, then you’re not an informed buyer. And, the CT isn’t going to perform any differently than the Lightning in this respect, except to the extent the CT offers a larger battery pack and better interstate charging infra.

If one of your “reasons” is cold weather performance, then you’re not an informed buyer. And the CT isn’t going to perform any differently than the Lightning in this respect, except to the extent the CT offers a larger battery pack and better interstate charging infra (and maybe heat pump).

That sort of list goes on.

But rather than acknowledging that the fundamental towing/cold weather performance between the Lightning and CT boil down to the (painfully obvious) differences in battery size and intrastate charging infra, you instead seem to just regurgitate YouTube FUD that is based on sloppy thinking.

If you think you’re waiting on a CT to not experience a >50% reduction in range while towing, you’re going to be disappointed.

If you think you’re waiting on a CT to not experience material reductions in range due to cold weather, you’re going to be disappointed.

To avoid these disappointments, you should focus on the actual, substantive, advantages of the CT in these respects: choose a trim with a far larger battery than any Lightning, and be prepared to stop and recharge at the better Tesla intrastate charge infra.

I am divided on your reply. On the one hand you are absolutely correct that all BEVs will suffer range loss due to towing, weather, etc., and that all new (or current) BEV owners will have to deal with it. On the other hand, Tesla is much better than Ford for drive efficiency, drag, range, and battery life, so these impacts might be less pronounced for the CT over the Lightning. We should prepare ourselves for the worst and be happy if it is better.

 

[BeastSlayer]

I am divided on your reply. On the one hand you are absolutely correct that all BEVs will suffer range loss due to towing, weather, etc., and that all new (or current) BEV owners will have to deal with it. On the other hand, Tesla is much better than Ford for drive efficiency, drag, range, and battery life, so these impacts might be less pronounced for the CT over the Lightning. We should prepare ourselves for the worst and be happy if it is better.

And that Tesla has better track records and more advanced tech on EVs and battery. Also, the proof is in it's Semi performance.

 

[uscbucsfan]

He's been wrong before but not in the direction most on here seem to be saying. The Model Y was supposed to be delivered by the Fall of 2020 yet my MY VIN is over 14,000 and we got ours on June 20th.
Tesla surprises everyone by delivering the Model Y ahead of schedule | Ars Technica

Put another way:
Tesla to Start Delivering New Model Y on Friday the 13th | Digital Trends
The first deliveries were on March 13th and 4 months later, we got number 14,###.
Okay, that's not that fast of a ramp up... 3 months to complete the first 14,000 isn't exactly fast.

If the first delivery of Cybertruck isn't until the end of September (I'll bet it's in August), But, for the sake of argument, we'll call it September. That'll put the year's production right at 15,000.

That's a bit off of my 50,000 2024 production that I predicted a bit ago. I'm going to stick to my 50,000 production estimate for this year. Maybe it's wishful thinking but they can do it. They have proven the can produce 5,000 vehicles GigaTexas. The MY ramp was severely hampered by construction happening around the line and on-site. They'll prioritize 4680 production for the CyberTruck. The process to fold metal will take a little learning but once they figure it out, it will ramp quickly. When working with paint, speeding the line up can cause problems as the paint dries but is soft at first. The timing and movement of equipment and parts at GigaTexas is now established. Adding in a new line by splitting the MY force off and using some of those trained people to prime the CT line will ensure it starts faster than the MY. Their biggest issue will be shipping Cybertrucks out because, I mean, just look at all the MYs collected around site just sitting around... getting dusty...

A few things;

1. The original MY was not a complete redesign in manufacturing or design. It shares 75% of the components of the M3.
2. Isn't that the only thing Tesla has been on time for? Model S/X refresh, Semi, MY AWD, M3, etc were all terribly behind schedule.
3. Elon has already said this would be a slow ramp (multiple times) and mass production won't begin until sometime in 2024. This is something that no one has done before and new techniques are being used and altered.
4. You mentioned the MY AWD LONG timeline and point to batteries. The 4680 still aren't ready and Elon didn't say there was a timeline for them to achieve the density/yields they hoped. He said it's really hard.

50,000 is crazy...0 chance in that. As I said before, I don't think there's much of a chance of 25,000.

I'm not sure if people just ignore what Tesla/Elon says, the timeline we've already had, etc. because they want it so bad, but all indications point to the CT being produced in VERY small quantities until sometime next year.

 

[cvalue13]

I am divided on your reply. On the one hand you are absolutely correct that all BEVs will suffer range loss due to towing, weather, etc., and that all new (or current) BEV owners will have to deal with it. On the other hand, Tesla is much better than Ford for drive efficiency, drag, range, and battery life, so these impacts might be less pronounced for the CT over the Lightning. We should prepare ourselves for the worst and be happy if it is better.

yes, absolutely, there will be differences and I expect that Tesla’s technological leads over Ford’s will show up in the numbers. Exacerbated further in a comparison with the Lightning in particular (which isn’t a ground-up BEV platform optimized for BEV, but instead an ICE platform with BEV guts packed in).

That said, my comments also relate to what has in the Lightning forums and my 9 months of ownership become clear (at least to me) but may not yet be clear to the hopeful CT owner: many of the quirks currently being attributed to the Lightning as a vehicle, are actually inherent to BEV trucks as a class.

And so while the CT may very well beat the Lightning in some of these metrics, it won’t avoid them. And in some instances, there may be unexpected oddities where the CT has its own quirks.

I’m thinking for example of towing.

Start with the fact that essentially all of the range reduction from towing comes not from some special nature of BEVs, but instead there basic physics of towing in any vehicle, ICE or otherwise. People fail to appreciate that even the best diesel rigs will also experience a >50% decrease in range if, eg:

• towing a trailer shaped like a parachute
• with even 1 PSI below reccomended
• on tires not ideal for towing/rolling resistance
• in any headwind
• in 20° weather
• all while doing 75mph

People only feel this is any different in a Lightning because they’re not used to having a truck with only a 13 gallon equivalent tank and fuel stations not available every few miles.

The CT won’t escape the majority of these effects of physics, by any technology we know of.

Here’s where I see the aforementioned possible quirk with the CT coming into play: unlike the Lightning, which is shaped like an ice cream truck, the CT’s stated [500]mi range will be in part the result of not just a larger battery, but the CT’s improved aerodynamics compared to the lightning.

Which means possibly that once you hook the CT to a trailer, what is usually a [500] mile battery in optimum drag conditions now has a perhaps even more dramatic apparent reduction in range. Whereas the Lightning’s bad aerodynamics merely gets worse with a trailer, will the CT’s better aerodynamics interplay with the trailer aerodynamics to a more pronounced effect?

Or maybe more simply: Lightning owners have experienced relatively little effect on range with racks or cargo in its bed, in part because the aerodynamics over the Lightning’s bed are already “felt” before the air gets there.

In contrast, the CT’s maximum range and better aero will be in part due to the sloping rear and tonneau cover - but adding a rack or cargo sticking up into what was once a smooth airstream will materially alter its drag in a way the Lightning doesn’t suffer.

But to emphasize, I don’t mean the above examples to at all suggest that on an all-in basis the CT will be “worse” on any given metric. Instead only to point out that it will be its own quirky participant in the same physics that effect all trucks.

Perhaps it’s a good time to re-up this graph. I’ve seen people say something like “my model X experiences very little range reduction, so I’m sure Tesla has this figured out, too.” But they’re confusing how physics works, as between drag profiles of increases frontal planes.

The bigger the object, the more air temp, humidity, wind, and speed accelerate the exponential curve of drag (all of which I know you in particular know very well, but to state it for the observer):

 

[TyPope]

A few things;

1. The original MY was not a complete redesign in manufacturing or design. It shares 75% of the components of the M3.
2. Isn't that the only thing Tesla has been on time for? Model S/X refresh, Semi, MY AWD, M3, etc were all terribly behind schedule.
3. Elon has already said this would be a slow ramp (multiple times) and mass production won't begin until sometime in 2024. This is something that no one has done before and new techniques are being used and altered.
4. You mentioned the MY AWD LONG timeline and point to batteries. The 4680 still aren't ready and Elon didn't say there was a timeline for them to achieve the density/yields they hoped. He said it's really hard.

50,000 is crazy...0 chance in that. As I said before, I don't think there's much of a chance of 25,000.

I'm not sure if people just ignore what Tesla/Elon says, the timeline we've already had, etc. because they want it so bad, but all indications point to the CT being produced in VERY small quantities until sometime next year.

1. The 75% design sharing is great for cost savings but does not mean much on the assembly line other than they know what order to put the stations in and approximately how long each should take.
2. Correct. Tesla hasn't always been on time BUT, for manufacturing, it's the MOST recent vehicle produced and it is unlikely they will unlearn their lessons.
3. You are correct. It may actually be a slower ramp but I don't think it will be that much slower if at all.
4. Correct again. However, it looks like they have been hoarding battery packs on the 3rd floor of the battery area for quite a while, maybe 4 months worth so far. Maybe they've managed to make a few at a slower pace because they don't have the process automated to a good speed yet. I am not certain they've hit their yield goals yet.

Hey, I don't know but have they said how large of a battery they are going to use? I heard 100KwH somewhere and I think that would be sad. a 200KwH battery makes more sense for towing at least.

 

[uscbucsfan]

1. The 75% design sharing is great for cost savings but does not mean much on the assembly line other than they know what order to put the stations in and approximately how long each should take.
2. Correct. Tesla hasn't always been on time BUT, for manufacturing, it's the MOST recent vehicle produced and it is unlikely they will unlearn their lessons.
3. You are correct. It may actually be a slower ramp but I don't think it will be that much slower if at all.
4. Correct again. However, it looks like they have been hoarding battery packs on the 3rd floor of the battery area for quite a while, maybe 4 months worth so far. Maybe they've managed to make a few at a slower pace because they don't have the process automated to a good speed yet. I am not certain they've hit their yield goals yet.

Hey, I don't know but have they said how large of a battery they are going to use? I heard 100KwH somewhere and I think that would be sad. a 200KwH battery makes more sense for towing at least.

The most recent vehicles would be the MY AWD, Semi, Model S/X refresh which were slow starting and delayed.

Regardless, no they haven't said the battery size. If it's 100kwh, it will likely only have under 300 miles without towing, which would cause demand to drop significantly.

But when Elon says mass production won't begin until 2024, what do people think he's saying? I think that means they won't be hitting the thousands per week until then.

 

[Greshnab]

Tesla doesn't offer any financing. Whatever bank (US Bank or Chase, I believe) is offering that.

unless i am mistaken tesla MOSTLY uses banks.. there is a small percentage of loans that tesla finances themself

 

[Crissa]

unless i am mistaken tesla MOSTLY uses banks.. there is a small percentage of loans that tesla finances themself

Elon pointed out that they're limited by the financing terms that banks will offer to administer the loans. So they can't just jump in.

Knowing Elon's disdain for regulatory rigamarole, I can see why he's shy of making Tesla step into the financing realm. For many automakers, that can become the lion's share of their profits, leading to perverse incentives.

-Crissa

 

[RVAC]

4. Correct again. However, it looks like they have been hoarding battery packs on the 3rd floor of the battery area for quite a while, maybe 4 months worth so far. Maybe they've managed to make a few at a slower pace because they don't have the process automated to a good speed yet. I am not certain they've hit their yield goals yet.

As far as I'm aware those are Model Y 4680 packs.

 

[SentinelOne]

I have an 802 credit score.

I'll threaten to pay cash for anything above 5%.

max I'll go is 3.5% otherwise cash

 

[BeastSlayer]

max I'll go is 3.5% otherwise cash

I'll be orgasmic at that rate!

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