Cybertruck deliveries to hit 100-120k in 2024 says analyst Ming-Chi Kuo

[Crissa]

As posted by @PilotPete The LimitingFactor shared this morning an update on 4680 production at Giga Austin and it is his opinion that Tesla is no longer 4680 battery constrained for Cybertruck production. So I guess we will see how this pans out.

@firsttruck isn't @PilotPete
https://www.cybertruckownersclub.co...long-can-tesla-continue-growing-50-cagr.9467/

-Crissa

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[Jhodgesatmb]

estimates range from 1000-1500 cells per CyberTruck

which means the 10M cells GTX has made since June 16 (when they announced the first 10M) would equip 10K to 6K cybertrucks (assuming zero going into Model Y)

so while I fully appreciate the point that they’re ramping, I’m not sure where someone concludes the CT is no longer battery constrained for purposes of eg 250K trucks/yr

PS to add: admittedly I haven’t seen @PilotPete’s post you reference

He was just posting TheLimitingFactor’s YouTube link and he is the one that declared an end to battery constraints. I do not know what metrics he was using. You are saying that 1M cells over 4 months would equip 6K-10K CTs, or an average of 1500-2500 CTs per month. So they ‘could’ do that, assuming that battery production stays constant (which it won’t) until the production rate exceeds that number. Right? That would, with my guessing, get them to March or April of 2024. But they are doubling their cell production every 3-4 months so if that continues they could support up to 10,000 CTs per month by then … maybe.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

@firsttruck isn't @PilotPete
https://www.cybertruckownersclub.co...long-can-tesla-continue-growing-50-cagr.9467/

-Crissa

Fine, but it was @scottf200 that posted the battery update here, and TheLimitingFactor posted his evaluation to his Patreons. My apologies for the mistake.

 

[Mini2nut]

…AND where is the CYBERQUAD???

I predict a surprise announcement during the Delivery Day livestream event.

 

[VC-WA-CT]

Cybertruck 2 will have upgraded battery options. Possibly more compact motors. I do think this estimate is as good as any. There will be 30-40% pass rate and there won't be a need to produce more than 250k per year.

I was hoping we'd hear about a CT based van before we heard about a complete redesign of CT itself.

 

[Mini2nut]

I can almost guarantee that Tesla is secretly working on a SS Cybervan. It would be a home run and a van is currently not offered in their vehicle portfolio.

 

[PilotPete]

Fine, but it was @scottf200 that posted the battery update here, and TheLimitingFactor posted his evaluation to his Patreons. My apologies for the mistake.

I didn't say there was no longer a shortage. I just said there is a possible supplier. Will Tesla use them? I don't know. Are they even offering these to Tesla? I don't know. It's just possible.

 

[Crissa]

Fine, but it was @scottf200 that posted the battery update here, and TheLimitingFactor posted his evaluation to his Patreons. My apologies for the mistake.

Yeah, I stopped giving him money after he decided to participate in anti-semitic and bigoted trends on Twitter. :/

-Crissa

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

I didn't say there was no longer a shortage. I just said there is a possible supplier. Will Tesla use them? I don't know. Are they even offering these to Tesla? I don't know. It's just possible.

I am losing my marbles. It was TheLimitingFactor that said that. Jordan was responding to the same post about the battery milestone that you responded to and I mistakenly thought you had posted ‘his’ link but it was actually not you and not a repost of TheLimitingFactor - they just happened all in the same time soan.

 

[PilotPete]

I am losing my marbles. It was TheLimitingFactor that said that. Jordan was responding to the same post about the battery milestone that you responded to and I mistakenly thought you had posted ‘his’ link but it was actually not you and not a repost of TheLimitingFactor - they just happened all in the same time soan.

No worries Jack. I just got home and I’m off by 10 time zones at the moment.

 

[LansingCyberLimo]

Cybertruck production should be 400/week byJan 2024. They almost have that much battery capacity right now. Within a few months, battery up to 1000/week by Feb, and 2000/week in May, 4000/week in Aug. 7k/week November. So 56k CT in the last 8 weeks of the year. Still only a bit over 100k for the year I suppose. But they'd be over a 300k/year run rate, from almost nothing. Maybe a lot of us will be waiting until 2025.

 

[charliemagpie]

New/upgraded 4680 lines being installed as we speak.

It will continue to scale. It will not be linear growth.

Really, I do not expect it will take more than 18 months from now to reach full potential.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Yeah, I stopped giving him money after he decided to participate in anti-semitic and bigoted trends on Twitter. :/

-Crissa

I do not use Twitter so I did not know that. That is indeed unfortunate because his work on battery technology is really very good.

 

[flowerlandfilms]

 

[happy intruder]

Only 3-4 huh? lol

I'll bet after all is said and done and released, the price will be very high because of add-ons and that out of the first 100,00, there will be 20-30 per cent of people not getting it because of all the changes......to include as some already said, " there is no mid-gate and it only seats 5 and it shrunk and they made the SS thinner and there's no sail panel storage right?"

cant wait to see with thinner SS the crash test results.......man there are a lot of unknowns still out there........have not heard anything I don't think about government testing and EPA yet ....lots going on.....

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