Elon reveals Cybertruck details / production expectations on Q3 2023 call

[AustroTom]

I guess i have to forget the fact that Elon wanted to build a pickup, (thats' for the other manufacturers). He wanted (and still wants), a showtruck.
I can't wait though when they finally anounce if the first deliveries are going to be tri motors with 500 miles or not

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[Coolbreeze704]

Here is the biggest issue I see with snake oil salesmen like Cramer. Tesla is not a car company. (Say what?!?!) They are an energy company, vertically integrated from production, to storage, to end user products that use their energy. Take a look at Ford. What is Ford’s significant impact in the refining industry? What about large scale tank storage? Are they advocating for little mini refineries? How much of their money is in drilling and pumping crude? How about that Ford Semi? Tesla is an energy company. And until these myopic blowhards can see past the cars and see the company as a whole (as opposed to GM, which currently is a hole) the stock will be undervalued. Oh, but there is more. Dojo and the D1 chip. Their first in house processor and it is kicking the backside of NVidia’s fastest. And not just marginally. The delta isn’t measured in Percentage, it is measured in 3X and 4X and in some functions 10X. And the data Tesla has and the storage they have created for this data, and the analysis they can do with this data. This means TSLA is a hybrid between and Energy company, A hardware Tech like NVidia, and a data company like AWS. That is nothing to belittle. That is the future of this company.

But sure, look at the margins on the MY and compare it to GM and Ford. That will tell you the value…

Not.

Well said.

Plus their real world Ai coupled with their language base AI from XAi and X, merge to allow robots to navigate the physical world and communicate end to end without thousands of line of compute. To me this will be a step change like never seen before.

But they are just a car company

 

[Crissa]

That’s unfortunate and doesn’t bode well in the pricing department.

That's the opposite of what he said.

If they wanted it to make a profit before, they could just jack the price now and kill the sales later.

2. Ramp is going to be very slow. 125,000 is about 10k a month. But getting to that 10k a month is highly unlikely to happen in 2024. Realistically expecting any more than 50,000 to be delivered next year is likely wishful thinking.

Also the opposite of what he said.

He said they had the equipment in place to build at an annual rate of 125k already. And their fastest ramp was the Model Y, which they made slightly more than 73k of in the first twelve months of production.

-Crissa

I just want an EV truck without a giant nose. I live in the mountains so turning radius is super-important; I want a truck so I don't have to tow, so I need a bed that actually fits things. Being efficient is more important to me than range. Durable and Supercharging are my spouse's requirements.

If you just want a long range EV truck, the Lightning already exists. Go buy it.

 

[TyPope]

I don’t think he’s setting it up to be expensive. I think he’s setting it up to not be profitable or as profitable as it can be until they get to max capacity and best workflow. They cant make it as expensive as a S or X because that has a very limited audience and they’ll lose lots of orders.

He's tempering the investors excitement by saying it won’t be hugely profitable at first. But had tons of potential.

I think you are close here. I think it goes a little further. I think they'll release the more expensive version first because people at that end of spending are a bit more flexible than the "If it's more than the original single-motor price, I'm out" crowd. Then, as they ramp up and economy of scale makes material cost drop, they'll be more able to offer the less expensive versions.

How do they do that? By overcharging for those popular add-ons... more range? Better wheels? Etc. Those things will be more expensive at first to help offset production cost.

 

[ricinro]

I’ll say this much: Musk seemed particularly down, grim, and grumpy.

He was positive about some things but grumpy about the realization that Tesla cars are too expensive for the masses. He blames the FED and insists that they are working hard to shave pennies (VAVE?) but first principles thinking would design a low cost vehicle much like Chinese competitors are doing.
This may have something to do with the internal pissing contest of 25k car vs robotaxi. Elon gets grumpy when he is wrong.

 

[PilotPete]

How do they do that? By overcharging for those popular add-ons... more range? Better wheels? Etc. Those things will be more expensive at first to help offset production cost.

I don’t think those things will make a large enough dent in the costs of bringing the CT to market that they will move the needle. I see very few options, and some of those might have a higher price tag, not to offset anything, but to discourage people from ordering them and clogging up the production line. The more they are all the same, the faster they can build them. (To a point)

 

[CyberSleuth]

You're right. I misheard it. He was talking about the next gen high volume model, not the CT.

He says it (25k car) DOESN'T have 14" of ground clearance.

I'm now pivoting back to fully expecting awe and magic from the Cybertruck!

 

[Nolacyber]

As for price point and profitability. It’s essential that the Cybertruck be priced not to lose money out if the gate (of course development costs have to be amortized over expected life) but.
I remember another Radical new concept Vehicle. The Eclispe jet, founded by Microsoft guru. Friction stir welding was supposed to cut costs and be More efficient. They sold the first one in 2007 and went broke after 2 years after producing 262 units. Each unit was sold at a loss of 500k I believe. The CEO said “It’ll get better when we sell more”. No; if you sell it at a loss more sales means more losses.
Be prepared for first Cybertrucks. to sell for 100k plus.

I bought a an S in 2012 for $110k; inflation adjusted that’d be around 150 now. Many would pay that for the Cybertruck.

Of course the same S would cost about 90k now; so he could start off selling high and reduce price down the road once they recover investment

 

[Jedi2155]

Not all the processes are in place for 125k unit run rate if they can't build 30 units well.

AFAIK they've only built a handful of cars that are "delivery quality" and showroom quality. That's not scalable and there's a lot of learning that happens during the scale up. Just because they ahve the production capacity to build at a higher rate does not mean they know exactly how to get to 125k/run rate on day 1.

 

[ED_SFO]

Still thinking first trucks will be $100k...dual still in the $75K range. And like he said it will take at least 18 month to get to full run rate. But still might not make money at that point. Ppl need to realize a model s plaid is $90k and that car doesn't even have that many bells and whistles like the CT. I figure lots of ppl will drop off once the pricing comes out and people will need to wait another 3 years for maybe a more affordable version.

 

[GlockandRoll]

I'm just hoping the dual motor isn't too far off the $50K mark.

 

[ninja6r]

I love how people are still thinking the highest trim will be above $80k. You all are nuts and I love reading your comments. If Tesla is going to have a run rate north of 100k vehicles, they will not be charging anything over the IRA $80k limit. There is LITERALLY, no market for that. I'd even say the market for $80k trucks is too small as well. The really interesting price conversation starts when they hit that 250k/year run rate. Especially if Ford can increase there's as well. Fun times ahead and can't wait for the end of November to actually find out.

 

[Arctic_White]

Sounded to me like he was preparing investors to expect losses on CT sales for a while. Which could imply affordability

Yup.

There is zero chance that the Cybertruck will cost more than the Ford Lightning.

However, I have said it before and I'll say it again: if the backlog is huge, Tesla will start increasing Cybertruck's prices. Meaning, Tesla may start with a low price but will jack it up to ensure that the backlog is manageable.

I suspect prices will be very close to what they announced back in 2019. But the prices will start creeping up as Tesla realizes the actual demand.

Let's see.

 

[Diehard]

Elon sounded like he is getting ready for his midlife crises. In an interview on AI, he questioned if he has been wasting his time and missing out on life solving problems that AI would have solved anyway. Now one of the words he keep repeating is "difficult". He may be getting too old to sleep on factory floor to see yet another impossible product through. He is too deep into CT to give up now but I have a feeling after CT, he may take a brake (by his own standards) and get more into more fun stuff like Space X.

I thought it is impossible for Tesla to stick with originally announced price for dual motor but now with Lightning Pro at the same price and rumors of single motor being out of the picture, I am looking forward to the reveal to see what we get.

 

[WHIZZARD OF OZ]

This is what kind of dampens my enthusiasm. All I ever wanted was a EV truck that has a
>long range,
>towing power,
>foldable front mid-seat,
>towable four down
>and fifth wheel towing capability.
All those "intricate" things he's throwing at it (which is part of the insane delay), makes it not even the first ev pickup truck anymore.
Who needs four wheel steering, 14" of travel, tank mode for off-roading, bullet proof body, etc. etc.
But that's me....

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