Tesla's Cybertruck VIN Activation Tracker (NOT Customer VIN Allocations)

[Ward L]

Now much hostility do you have? If you don't like my posts, feel free to ignore them.

I'll let you draw your conclusions from the data, but unless you have absolute proof that I'm wrong, let me draw my own conclusions.

Hey Ed, you are the problem. Chill out a little....

Sponsored

 

[newwave1331]

Now much hostility do you have? If you don't like my posts, feel free to ignore them.

I'll let you draw your conclusions from the data, but unless you have absolute proof that I'm wrong, let me draw my own conclusions.

I think "production" is a sensitive word and I dont want to mislead anyone. I have zero sources on the ground to verify "production" of any of these VINS. The recall site seems to be updated around X:05 and X:35 throughout the "work" day and I'm just polling it. A handful of activated VINs have been seen at a service centers within 13-18 days. So we have a timeline on about 1% of active VINs. There could be a much different timeline for the other 99%.

If we could get a few of those Chinese balloons to hover over the Giga Austin outboard lot to catch the VINs, that would be useful.

 

[cvalue13]

If we could get a few of those Chinese balloons to hover over the Giga Austin outboard lot to catch the VINs, that would be useful.

if I promise to go walk the outbound lot every day, do you promise to refer to me as ‘Chinese Balloon?’


At least until Tesla just starts delivering trucks to our members, who then share their VINs

 

[newwave1331]

if I promise to go walk the outbound lot every day, do you promise to refer to me as ‘Chinese Balloon?’

My wife is so glad we don't live close to Austin. I still have not seen one in person but I'd be a divorced Chinese balloon if I lived there.

 

[cvalue13]

42 AWD (#630-670, 88)

, member: 6186"]
32 AWD (#796-800, 912-938)
Skipped VINs: 907-910. (801-906 at MCs)
[/QUOTE]

I'm still unsure if 88, 99 and 911 are MCs or foundation. Currently I'm counting those as foundations but they are VIN islands.

21 AWD (#724-744)

51 AWD (#745-795)

41 AWD (#683-723)

5 Cyberbeast (#21-25)

12 AWD (#671-682)

VINs 647-652 (AWD +6) are active now.... weren't a couple of hours ago.

@newwave1331

do you have at arm’s reach the chart, up to date, that shows the batches between all of 000000-[the showroom VIN numbers], in batch form?

feel like I’ve seen that before, but wondering what the overall batch landscape, gaps, and AWD batch vs Beast batch, look like at present, 000000-the 1200’s

 

[newwave1331]

, member: 6186"]
32 AWD (#796-800, 912-938)
Skipped VINs: 907-910. (801-906 at MCs)

@newwave1331

do you have at arm’s reach the chart, up to date, that shows the batches between all of 000000-[the showroom VIN numbers], in batch form?

feel like I’ve seen that before, but wondering what the overall batch landscape, gaps, and AWD batch vs Beast batch, look like at present, 000000-the 1200’s
[/QUOTE]
Kind of confused on what you are looking for.

This?

 

[cvalue13]

@newwave1331

do you have at arm’s reach the chart, up to date, that shows the batches between all of 000000-[the showroom VIN numbers], in batch form?

feel like I’ve seen that before, but wondering what the overall batch landscape, gaps, and AWD batch vs Beast batch, look like at present, 000000-the 1200’s

Kind of confused on what you are looking for.

This?

[/QUOTE]

sorry, I knew that was hard to explain when I was drafting it

I mean by VIN number batches, eg (just using hypo numbers):

000-67 (AWD)
068-069 (Beast)
070 (skipped)
071-140 (AWD)
141-420 (skipped)
421-585 (AWD)
585-686 (MCs)
687-800 (AWD)
801-804 (Beast)
805-911 (skipped)
912-950 (AWD)
950-1200 (NOT YET ACTIVATED)
1201-1221 (showroom)


basically, I’d like to see the landscape from head to tail, regarding known AWD or Beast blocks, large skips, odd one-off skips, then the remaining gap between the highest to date VIN and the start of the showroom models

 

[Kayron648]

Forgive me if this is a stupid question / I am sure the answer is somewhere in this thread but what doe MC stand for?

 

[newwave1331]

@cvalue13

All the VINs I count toward the chart are just for foundation. Those VIN batches are listed at the bottom of the charts (I put it there from your feedback lol).

MCs
801 - 844 AWD
845 - 854 Beast
855 - 887 AWD
888 Skipped
889 - 906 AWD
907 - 910 Skipped: I even checked for rear motor (I think that will be C for digit 8 but checked A and B too) G & H GVWR rated VINs but none were active.

Showroom
1200 - 1219 AWD

 

[scottf200]

Forgive me if this is a stupid question / I am sure the answer is somewhere in this thread but what doe MC stand for?

No worries.

RC (Release Candidate Prototype) which means that they are testing it as the final production version.

"The MC builds are ‘manufacturing confirmation’ units, used to confirm that the LINE can put them together as intended, to the same specs as the RCs were able to accomplish."
Via: https://www.cybertruckownersclub.co...se-wont-be-for-months.9507/page-2#post-185911

 

[cvalue13]

All the VINs I count toward the chart are just for foundation. Those VIN batches are listed at the bottom of the charts (I put it there from your feedback lol).

f me I knew id Seen it but ?

I’m blaming how it’s tiny



So there’s a total either missing (in the last) or not yet inactivated (in the future) of 634

Add that to the activated to date of 456

And it equals 1,090

now you see what I’m driving at?



00000-1199, minus the 110 MC builds leaves us with ~1,090 builds before the “normal” showroom non-FS units


which is why they skipped to 1200 for the non-FS showroom builds … they didn’t want the non-FS showroom builds hogging valuable early VIN numbers that should be allotted to ‘Founders Edition’ builds

So why 1,090?

They were space left over for possible MC builds. Notice they ended up building 110. But they can’t know how many MCs will be needed, depending on how things go. But they went well enough that they ended up only using 110 of an allotted 200 spaces for MCs



meanwhile, of the 1,000VINs allotted for FS, it leaves the following questions and answers:

25-51 (or 25 missing)
71-420 (or 349 missing)

Im willing to bet that with the first 50 valuable VINs, Tesla wanted them all to be Cyberbeasts (with the one exception of #4, who is a real big-wig that wanted instead an AWD but still wanted their top-5 VIN).

the missing 25 in these first 50 are only missing because they know they can’t yet build that block of 25 Beasts (due to parts constraints), so they’ll later come back and activate before they build them for the big-wigs who are getting their sub-50 VIN beast

next you have the 329 missing between 71-349, same deal: they wanted some early AWDs vins (51-70), but then again more Beasts (71-349) but they can’t get to (meanwhile while 88, 99, were sought after VINs by someone who wanted their trucks sooner, so they opted to use their VIN slot to just get an AWD instead).

similarly, someone wanted specifically Beast VIN “911” - who was VIP enough to have it built out of sequence (ie they would have otherwise been VIN 22, but for wanting 911).


on these ~assumptions, look at the ~blend you get out of the 1,000 FS VINs looking only at missing+activated (not pending)

Basically, to date 50+330 = 370 Beasts have been either built (~26) or reserved (~350) for future low-VIN Beast builds

While to date, 430 AWD have been built (because they don’t need to reserve the VIN, they can just build in sequence)


Point being, I think in the current landscape we’re seeing a combo of:

• indirect evidence of the plan for 1,000 FS
• indirect evidence of the Beast parts constraints, but still wanting to have low-VIN beasts once built, resulting in the apparent ‘gaps’
• in-between (after 800), were 200 MC slots (only 110 needed used ultimately)

The ‘extra’ 90 VINs could in theory be ‘put back in’ before reaching the 1200

If unit 1001 will be the first non-FS retail buikd, it should be the vin that is 90 before 1200, or 1091




if I wasn’t so sleepy, I could have said all this much better ?

 

[WormtownKris]

if I wasn’t so sleepy, I could have said all this much better ?

CV, is one of the inferences above that you feel there will still be only ~1000 FS builds? Or rather that this was the gameplan earlier and is the root cause for these VIN gaps, and that after #1200 we will see a lot more FS VINS, but now mostly in sequential order?

 

[cvalue13]

CV, is one of the inferences above that you feel there will still be only ~1000 FS builds? Or rather that this was the gameplan earlier and is the root cause for these VIN gaps, and that after #1200 we will see a lot more FS VINS, but now mostly in sequential order?

honestly not sure if there will still be only 1,000. Until at least recently, that was certainly the official plan. The points above at this point just reflect the fact that it was (or may still be) the plan.

It could still be the plan, while at the same time there being an asterisk that things are subject to change.

But either way, one of two things will be true:

Come VIN 1091, either (A) they finish FS AWD builds start building retail AWDs, because 1000 FS is still the plan (by then), or (B) they keep building FS AWD because the plan has changed/series has extended.

That was really a point incidental to the main take-a ways for purpose of this thread:

• clarifying why we see the VIN gaps to date: those are reserved for Beast builds (that they simply can’t get to yet because of Beast production constraints)

• the VIN searches will need to run those gaps in order to pick up new Beast builds

• despite the above general rule, mentioning scenarios as to why we occasionally see a random AWD in what should under the general rule be a block of Beast VINs, and vice versa

eg slot 911, which has been registered as a Beast build, would have otherwise been a VIN reserved for an MC build if it were needed. It turned out they only needed 110 MC builds, 800-910 (because confirmation build went well enough that they didn’t need to extend into the entire 200 reserved MC builds).

Who knows why they skipped ahead to activate the 911 beast when they might by the logic above had gone back to the reserved Beast VIN #26

Meanwhile and conversely, VIN 4 (an AWD build within an otherwise reserved Beast VIN block), 88, 99, etc., could have a bunch of explanations given that the Beasts are going to take so long to build and get to. Key employees with early VIN rights who originally ordered a Beast could have asked to be converted to AWD purely to get them sooner. In which case they convert that reserved Beast VIN for that individual to an AWD, and go ahead and put it on the line.



All of this I’ve basically confirmed as being the landscape to date.

will have to think a bit more on how we keep an eye on build 1091, to see whether it’s an FS (plan changed) or a standard build (plan stuck).

Meanwhile and relatedly, need to also ponder the above in light of the data from this forum’s order tracking to date.

460ish AWDs ordered to date, and 340ish Beasts ordered to date

Get’s us awedul close to the 1,000 being reserved, after taking into account say 200 key employee/VIP deliveries/orders.

Would mean we have an awe full hood capture of orders here, save for maybe employees/VIPs. Which may be a bit surprising, but not out of the question given the biases of super fans to bring both early res holders and familiar with this site (or made familiar by eg xwitter/Sawyer et all poin ting people here and encouraging they enter info).

Then there’s that invites have slowed to a trickle of late. Presumably after initial big batches finalize that they aren’t converting, it opens up a couple here and there.

 

[Woodrick]

Hey Ed, you are the problem. Chill out a little....

I will admit that I have made a few mistakes in some posts. Sometime my treasure chest of information doesn't regurgitate things correctly. And there are also the problem with so many numbers changing on a daily basis (like the Silverado range). And with all of the off-topic threads, it is nearly impossible to follow one.

But all I did here was say " largest weekly possible production so far."

I still think that it may be a fair representation. It may even be a realistic production number. I don't know, but I'm pretty sure that no one here knows that I'm wrong.

It's only a little statement, that as some believe, customer production may be starting this week. After all, they have suggested that cars will be delivered within the next 4 weeks.

 

[newwave1331]

00000-1199, minus the 110 MC builds leaves us with ~1,090 builds before the “normal” showroom non-FS units

This is why I do the full scan at least once a day. I look for all available VINs 0-1199 for dual or tri. Nothing came up last night. I haven't caught any new VINs this morning following the trend (939, 940...). I'm now running any VIN adjacent to an activate one.

Sponsored