So, 1000 Foundation Series @ 50/day should take 20days, unless…

[DumpsterFire]

Just check gigahorse’s post history. I did a few days back. Says it all.

Truth. Gigahorse is only one of only two turds I have on ignore. That button is your friend! Haha

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[Noblelr3]

I got my email to order the FS on the 11th I mistakenly put the 12th on the spread sheet. My RN is 11283…. which, if I’m calculating correctly, is about 83k in line. I don’t think that many orders are going out for FS, I just think a lot of folks are passing up spending the extra 20k. Not a bad idea to do that if you are patient. It obvious there will be many more FS than 1k

 

[CactusPilot]

-what’s being delivery AWD vs. Beast

-any way to speed up the process? (get your ducks in a row, grease palms ,etc.)

-Right now, the ratio is about 9 to 1 for AWD vs Beast.

-If you have not experienced a TESLA delivery for a new (launch) vehicle..my best advice is to have ALL your financing ready. VIN's usually get assigned as your car is in transport with no advance notice. With so much demand, you don't want to be skipped.
Once the VIN is assigned, contact your insurance and add the vehicle. If you are using TESLA financing, it's a bit easier. I used my credit union and it involved more footwork on my end.

Congrats and enjoy!

 

[scottf200]

Once the VIN is assigned, contact your insurance and add the vehicle. If you are using TESLA financing, it's a bit easier. I used my credit union and it involved more footwork on my end.

Remember folks that the insurance company only needs a similar VIN to give you a quote if you are trying to figure out your budget and options. I've done this on a couple very early vehicles 2011 Volt and 2016 Model X ... just make up the (rightmost) 6 digits and make the rest of the vehicle match your Cybertruck.

https://teslatap.com/vin-decoder/

 

[cvalue13]

-Right now, the ratio is about 9 to 1 for AWD vs Beast.

it *was* 9-to-1 for a while

*right now* it’s 20-to-1 at best, or 50-to-1 at worst

At best.

Not for nothing, of the ~28 Beasts built to date, the majority of those went to execs and VIPs in connection with the Nov 30 delivery event. Basically before the delivery event they built and stockpiled ~15 Beasts so that the delivery event would be Beast-forward


Which means that, at worst not counting the delivery event tranche of beasts and AWDs, regarding instead units built since then, *right now* one could view it as 2% Beast build blend, or 50-to-1

 

[vertigo3pc]

50/day, 5 days a week, 52 weeks per year = 13,000 CT's, assuming no weeks offline(?).

Someone claimed the 4680 production specifically for CT limits Tesla to 2,000 Cybertrucks per month, which supports these numbers.

Could be we're seeing the "beginning" of production at 50/day and could max at 92/day, almost doubling output.

I also think Tesla may not be in a huge rush to increase that if FSD and AP still aren't working on CT.

 

[Woodrick]

50/day, 5 days a week, 52 weeks per year = 13,000 CT's, assuming no weeks offline(?).

Someone claimed the 4680 production specifically for CT limits Tesla to 2,000 Cybertrucks per month, which supports these numbers.

Could be we're seeing the "beginning" of production at 50/day and could max at 92/day, almost doubling output.

I also think Tesla may not be in a huge rush to increase that if FSD and AP still aren't working on CT.

As I mentioned in a similar post, if they are producing the same number of vehicles at the end of the year that they are this month, a bunch of people's heads are going to roll.
This is the start of a ramp up period, for both batteries and trucks. They should be near 20,000/month (600/day) by the end of the year, IMHO.

 

[vertigo3pc]

As I mentioned in a similar post, if they are producing the same number of vehicles at the end of the year that they are this month, a bunch of people's heads are going to roll.
This is the start of a ramp up period, for both batteries and trucks. They should be near 20,000/month (600/day) by the end of the year, IMHO.

Remember the Model 3 deliveries and ramp started in July 2017, but they didn't deliver more than 1,000 Model 3's until December 2017. Tesla had the opportunity to build the production line, and they state in their financials that their CURRENT capacity (end of year 2023) was 250,000 Cybertrucks/yr.

Based on the Model 3 ramp for 2017-2018, using the monthly percentage growth rate (however maybe percent MORE they produced), it could look like this:

November	12
December	??
January	360
February	446
March	1062
April	3262
May	5769
June	7338
July	11754
August	11923
September	19231
October	18652
November	20833

November was originally 43,846, but the CT line is limited to 20,833/mo, so I cut it to that many. Completely feasible to reach max capacity, but by April, I think the battery production bottleneck (if any) will make itself known.

 

[cvalue13]

and they state in their financials that their CURRENT capacity (end of year 2023) was 250,000 Cybertrucks/yr.

I think you’ve confused something here

Q3 financials have CT line capacity at 125K/yr in 2024


and that’s line capacity, not production expectation

 

[Woodrick]

I think you’ve confused something here

Q3 financials have CT line capacity at 125K/yr in 2024


and that’s line capacity, not production expectation

Are you referring to this?

Which is capactiy os of months ago and not for the remainder of this year. Could it be that the second line comes online at about the time that the Beast starts shipping?

 

[Derektsla]

It’s hard to know how Tesla makes up who gets a truck and when. I placed my order within 1 minute of release and I am approx. 3,900 in line and I didn’t get my invite until Dec. 20th. I am also an existing Tesla owner and stock holder. Location (SC) probably has a lot to do with it. Just (im)patiently waiting on my VIN now!

 

[cvalue13]

Could it be that the second line comes online at about the time that the Beast starts shipping?

Depending on what you mean by it, there is no second line.

Beasts go through the same line as AWD, with some alternate stations/materials inputs

There’s a line, that is ramping - towards a line max of 250K run rate (limited primarily by gigapress)

In Musk time, he said hitting 250K run rate sometime in 2025.

Regardless, the comment I was responding to above was asserting that in 2023 the installed capacity was for 250K/yr - the Q3 shows that isn’t true of 2023

As for 2024, we’ll see in about a week what the “current installed annual capacity” update is - and if higher than 125 would appreciate some explanation from Tesla of what wasn’t installed capacity in October, that now is, when they had long begun MC builds (which are built to test the installed line).

Setting aside line capacity, and instead looking at an annual production total: achieving 125K units in 2024 would be three times Tesla’s fastest ramp to date

and nothing from Tesla has suggested they expect the CT to be its fastest ramp - quite the opposite.

 

[ArizonaTea]

Look through the orders posted here and elsewhere, look at the deliveries, and look at the fact FS emails are still going out. More likely to be 100,000 FS at this point than 1,000
From a business perspective I am sure it is better for them to sell 100k trucks at $113-awd/$127k-beast than that many at $80/$100

Ohh, 80k AWD tax free? 80k vs 113k, this is like how you calculate the range in ur post lol

 

[Woodrick]

There’s a line, that is ramping - towards a line max of 250K run rate (limited primarily by gigapress)

Setting aside line capacity, and instead looking at an annual production total: achieving 125K units in 2024 would be three times Tesla’s fastest ramp to date

and nothing from Tesla has suggested they expect the CT to be its fastest ramp - quite the opposite.

So, it appears that you confirmed that the current line is capable of 250k/yr, good.

Tesla has highly suggested that they are expecting a significantly faster ramp for this vehicle. They haven't built this vehicle for manufacturing (like they did the Model Y) they OPTIMIZED the Cybertruck for manufacturing.

It seems to me that a vehicle that is optimized for manufacturing would be met with a faster ramp than the Model 3 or the Model Y.
You know Tesla, like SpaceX, has an uncanny ability to learn from the past and failures.

With an "optimized for manufacturing vehicle" they are expecting not to have to optimize the line for manufacturing. Just a few tweaks.

It's probably the battery line that will slow them down and that's why they have new battery lines ready to start.

 

[cvalue13]

Tesla has highly suggested that they are expecting a significantly faster ramp for this vehicle.

No, they have not

you’re confused

still

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