2024 annual delivery predictions: Troy Teslike, others?

[scottf200]

Related to Tesla's financial success and ability to do delivers ... this analyst is quite good too.

James Cat @TSLAFanMtl
Life sciences and business background. Marketer. Tesla commentary & analysis.

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[Gurule92]

thats a lot of FS

 

[scottf200]

Related to Tesla's financial success and ability to do delivers ... this analyst is quite good too.
...

Other Tesla Retail analysts to note. Purple rectangle.

 

[Arctic_White]

I guess if people don’t understand what analysts do, I wasn’t talking to them

Again, you are totally avoiding or purposefully ignoring my question. LOL.

You claimed that Troy was off by just 1 percent for FY '23 deliveries. But you failed to include 5 other times when he was off by more than 7% during quarterly deliveries. Surely predicting annual deliveries would be much more difficult than quarterly deliveries. Right?



I have no bones to pick with Troy. He is a great aggregator of data and he provides amazing value for when the data is made available and he compiles it in an easy-to-read way. But his predictions are no more "accurate" than what you or I have to say.

In fact, I'd go on to say that your prediction has more value to me than Troy's because you have a) proven to be right, b) have a thoughtful process, and c) you have a great sense and can analyze data.

That is why I am puzzled by your initial claim about Troy.

 

[cvalue13]

That is why I am puzzled by your initial claim about Troy.

I guess I don’t feel I made a grand “claim” about Troy

someone asked where this “data” was from

I said an analyst who last year did well predicting annual production, followed by a “??‍”

I don’t feel the need beyond that to explain what an analyst does generally, what this specific analyst has done historically, etc.

instead only that it is possible for analysts to have thought about this enough that you can’t just write it off by saying “but where’s the data from”

it’s from an analyst

they tend to do this ~for a living. To various degrees of success.

and maybe more to the point here in this thread: you haven’t mentioned his past “error” rate and described how that margin of error means that, for the purposes of this forum, that margin error is broadly relevant.

if his past history is off by an average of 20%, then for purposes of this forum here’s what that means:

if you’re expecting Tesla to build 100K units in 2024, it ain’t happening - and as just one datapoint to that limited insight, here’s an analyst saying 36K, and who in his worst case is off by 20% - so 43.2K, and in his best case is within 1%

If you’re a $TSLA day trader, a 20% error rate matters considerably.

If you’re a CT forum member wondering how many CTs they might make in 2024, analysts provide “bigger than a breadbasket” insight

 

[Arctic_White]

I guess I don’t feel I made a grand “claim” about Troy

someone asked where this “data” was from

I said an analyst who last year did well predicting annual production, followed by a “??‍”

I don’t feel the need beyond that to explain what an analyst does generally, what this specific analyst has done historically, etc.

instead only that it is possible for analysts to have thought about this enough that you can’t just write it off by saying “but where’s the data from”

it’s from an analyst

they tend to do this ~for a living. To various degrees of success.

and maybe more to the point here in this thread: you haven’t mentioned his past “error” rate and described how that margin of error means that, for the purposes of this forum, that margin error is broadly relevant.

if his past history is off by an average of 20%, then for purposes of this forum here’s what that means:

if you’re expecting Tesla to build 100K units in 2024, it ain’t happening - and as just one datapoint to that limited insight, here’s an analyst saying 36K, and who in his worst case is off by 20% - so 43.2K, and in his best case is within 1%

If you’re a $TSLA day trader, a 20% error rate matters considerably.

If you’re a CT forum member wondering how many CTs they might make in 2024, analysts provide “bigger than a breadbasket” insight

Ahh.. I see. Maybe I missed up.

But just to hammer the point home about how bad Troy is at guessing the future (to be fair, as bad as anyone out here as well): he guessed 15.7% gross auto margin (ex-credits). Wallstreet thought it will be 16.7%.

The actual? 17.2%. So he was off by a fair margin.

Again, I think you understand my point.

 

[cvalue13]

Again, I think you understand my point.

Are you able to quickly summarize how off he was in 2022, 2021?

 

[scottf200]

Again, I think you understand my point.

Are you able to quickly summarize how off he was in 2022, 2021?

@Arctic_White There are several that do financials. I don't recall how many do deliveries.
I bet Troy has summary numbers going back a few years in similar tweets. Is one of them your
pseudonym?

Other Tesla Retail analysts to note. Purple rectangle.

 

[Sjohnson20]

20,000 is my guess for this year

 

[Arctic_White]

Are you able to quickly summarize how off he was in 2022, 2021?

Unfortunately not. All I know is to take what he says with a grain of salt, and that he is more or less in line with the average analyst. Not terrible, but not perfect either.

 

[Arctic_White]

@Arctic_White There are several that do financials. I don't recall how many do deliveries.
I bet Troy has summary numbers going back a few years in similar tweets. Is one of them your
pseudonym?

Other Tesla Retail analysts to note. Purple rectangle.

LOL, no.

I am not an analyst and if I were guessing, I would actually be even more wrong than Troy!

?

So don't listen to random jokers on the internet, especially me.

 

[Jager]

Given that Tesla is having to actually invent various manufacturing processes for the Cybertruck, one might imagine that this ramp is somewhat unique. Some of what they learned with previous ramps might be a bit helpful. But, broadly, I suspect even senior Tesla management is unsure how quickly it will unfold.

If I had to guess, I'd surmise that the Cybertruck will be slower than previous ramps in the beginning; but then at some point down the road will accelerate faster than those earlier efforts.

 

[Mini2nut]

I will be shocked if 2024 production exceeds 30k Cybertruck’s.

 

[Arctic_White]

Are you able to quickly summarize how off he was in 2022, 2021?

I'm not sure how much you follow Troy, but he thinks only 2M vehicles will be sold by Tesla in 2024.

Let's see how right he is.

I expect Tesla to sell over 2.1M vehicles this year.

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