📈 Q4 2022 Tesla Earnings! Cybertruck Production Remains ON TRACK! Status Still Sits at Tooling

[Sirfun]

As someone pointed out. Tesla produced 440k vehicles last quarter. 1.8m vehicles is just maintaining the production rate they had leaving 2022. So it would be essentially zero growth in capacity.

I don’t think that’s likely to happen. I think the 1.8m number was a lowball. That’s Tesla making a goal they know they can beat. After listening to 3 months of “Tesla is missing their estimate” and watching the stock price tumble and all the accusation and bullshit, they made it pretty explicit what to expect as a minimum.

It's gotta really piss them off to hear all the pundits say, "That's a 40% increase from 2021 levels but well south of CEO Elon Musk's promise of 50% growth rates". Especially this year, when every other manufacturer is struggling to grow period!

So yeah, Elon and Tesla are lowballing them all!

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[Ogre]

It's gotta really piss them off to hear all the pundits say, "That's a 40% increase from 2021 levels but well south of CEO Elon Musk's promise of 50% growth rates". Especially this year, when every other manufacturer is struggling to grow period!

So yeah, Elon and Tesla are lowballing them all!

This year they made it abundantly clear what the expectation is. 1.8m vehicles. I think last year it was pretty vague and everyone interpreted it differently.

Did Tesla have fantastic growth? Yes.

Was it quite as fantastic as people expected? Maybe not. It was overall a screwed up year following a couple other screwed up years.

 

[Cyberman]

I know, I know, it's enough to make you want to toss the data processor out the porthole!

 

[charliemagpie]

They should have been sandbagging much earlier. Like 3 years ago.

We would not have had MSM 'convenient' narratives every quarter. At least this way we can manage expectations, and not be prone to narrow misses.

 

[SpaceYooper]

R-E-L-A-X.
20k-50k deliveries in 23' are still within the margins of what Elon said on the call...if production does start in the Summer.

Starting in May Ford delivered 15,617 Lightnings in 22'. I still think deliveries of the CT won't start until the Fall. When Elon says the ramp is slow in the beginning, that doesn't mean it will be so slow as to not produce more than Ford. I think Tesla will keep Ford's 1st-year deliveries in mind when setting a target...so 20k is a nice round number that beats Ford and 30k is a nice number that doubles Ford. Neither of those numbers would be considered significant to the bottom line.

From the beginning, it was stated the Dual+ motor variants would not be out until 2022. Tesla is not 2 years late, they are currently a few months late and predicted to be about 1 year late.

In the fall of 2021 there was a publically acknowledged meeting between Elon and the big 3 manufacturers. I mentioned back then;

Maybe just maybe the good hearted Elon just felt the CT was too dominant for today's full size truck market. He knows he can't produce all the full size trucks us North Americans require. He believes more EV trucks are needed to really make a difference. So...he's giving the competition time to improve, time to compete, time to survive and save their asses. Who's to say there wasn't a secret pre-meeting to this publicly released meeting where the secret pre-meeting was Elon and the groveling competition CEOs begging for mercy. To which he obliged because it's what's best for us all.

It's not as if the Big 3 are crushing it with their EV truck deliveries right now. The point being, Elon doesn't want to release the CT until he knows the Big 3 will still survive against his better product, because he knows he can't be the only game in town.

 

[Ogre]

R-E-L-A-X.
20k-50k deliveries in 23' are still within the margins of what Elon said on the call...if production does start in the Summer.

Production ramp outcomes are a bell curve. Of course 20k+ deliveries are still possible. But the probability is pretty low.

Last summer we were talking about what we need to see in order to get to first customer deliveries. Conclusion was more or less Gigapress installed 6 months prior. Musk’s comments more or less confirmed a lot of those predictions. Gigapress needed to be in place weeks ago to hit significant volume. It didn’t even start assembly until a week ago.

That said. Tesla management seems to be a lot more conservative about predictions lately. So the Cybertruck delivery estimate might be as much a sandbag as their 1.8m units for 2023 number.

But things need to accelerate if we want more than 10k this year.

 

[electricAK]

Some were reported to be testing in Alaska.

Where was that reported?

I saw the photos on the Alaska Tesla Owners Facebook group, this was at least a year ago. The photos were taken at the receiving dock, and showed a vehicle in the exact shape of the CT (but under some kind of cover, if I remember correctly) being loaded onto a transport carrier headed to the Fairbanks/Delta area (where Tesla has their test site). The poster said there were two of them, even though the photo only showed one. This is all by memory since I can't find the post.

I believe that was the last we heard of any Cybertrucks in Alaska.

 

[greggertruck]

I saw the photos on the Alaska Tesla Owners Facebook group, this was at least a year ago. The photos were taken at the receiving dock, and showed a vehicle in the exact shape of the CT (but under some kind of cover, if I remember correctly) being loaded onto a transport carrier headed to the Fairbanks/Delta area (where Tesla has their test site). The poster said there were two of them, even though the photo only showed one. This is all by memory since I can't find the post.

I believe that was the last we heard of any Cybertrucks in Alaska.

Wish I knew where to even START looking to try to see any evidence of this.

 

[TheLastStarfighter]

I saw the photos on the Alaska Tesla Owners Facebook group, this was at least a year ago. The photos were taken at the receiving dock, and showed a vehicle in the exact shape of the CT (but under some kind of cover, if I remember correctly) being loaded onto a transport carrier headed to the Fairbanks/Delta area (where Tesla has their test site). The poster said there were two of them, even though the photo only showed one. This is all by memory since I can't find the post.

I believe that was the last we heard of any Cybertrucks in Alaska.

No, there was another report before Christmas.

 

[electricAK]

No, there was another report before Christmas.

Rings a bell. I'm pretty sure the first photos at the Dock were in mid summer, so this would have been a different report.

These reports made me think at the time there must be more beta CT's out there than the 3 or so we knew to exist in the lower-48. But if so, they've done an incredible job at hiding them since.

 

[greggertruck]

No, there was another report before Christmas.

Of this past year?? How am I missing these ha

 

[greggertruck]

Rings a bell. I'm pretty sure the first photos at the Dock were in mid summer, so this would have been a different report.

These reports made me think at the time there must be more beta CT's out there than the 3 or so we knew to exist in the lower-48. But if so, they've done an incredible job at hiding them since.

I had a customer a few months ago in my store telling me that Tesla has facilities no one knows anything about at all. I life in the PHX Metro area and he claimed that on the west side of town there is a facility that's unmarked.

A little too conspiracy theory for my blood, but... possible!

 

[Bill906]

Wish I knew where to even START looking to try to see any evidence of this.

ALASKA! Duh....

 

[Gaston]

Rivian only made 24,337 trucks last year, Ford sold 15,617 F-150 Lighting.

It should not be hard for Cybertruck to swamp those number in full production next year with very competitive mileage range

 

[GlockandRoll]

I wonder if I'll even get mine by 2025.
Sigh.

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