CT end of life

[Jhodgesatmb]

I am very skeptical about the longevity of the structural battery pack. The glues in the pack will be undergoing constant stress and strain, which I am sure has been tested, but resins are volatile and do breakdown over time so really only time will tell. But in general that lines up with your battery replacement comment. I think for the next ten years battery resources are going to be in very high demand and that will keep the battery replacement cost, even aftermarket, very high. The structural pack will also be harder to replace do to it being more integral to the structure. I also have to imagine that these structural packs are going to be much much harder to recycle due to a massive amount of adhesives.

Trucks tend to hold their value very well and in my experience with ICE trucks is that almost always the cost of repairs is well under the resale value so it makes sense to do the repairs. At ten years the wear and tear on vehicles in my experience is still usually acceptable with minimal upkeep along the way. I have found that its usually closer to 15 years that the seats and plastic are faded or cracking, the suspension is making too many noises, the seals are tearing or cracking, the exterior plastic and lights are very oxidized. And in general there are just numerous cosmetic issues. Obviously the CT won't have paint issues, but that usually seems to be done around 15 years also.

Usually for me its all that other nonsense that makes me want to get a newer vehicle. I don't want to spend a bunch time and money replacing cosmetics and seals because it feels like a money pit. I feel like at that point your keeping up a classic car vs. a daily driver and the question is less is this financially wise rather do I want this car in my life enough to keep it up. I am thinking that due to the very high upfront cost, the CT will be considered a lifetime vehicle for many and if the CT resale is still above $20k and making the major repairs doesn't put me too far in the red then I would probably spend the money to do the repairs.

Last paragraph I promise. I am very hopeful that battery technology is going to have some major breakthroughs in the next ten years. Depending on the production and popularity of the CT, I am hopeful that there will be updgraded batteries made to retrofit the CT at that 10 year mark that would increase the range. If not, I suspect that may be what kills the EV increased life. If there are much better trucks out there with better battery tech, I think people will opt for those rather than dump money into their old stainless CT. My economics professor told us in the very first class that people are greedy maximizers. We will generally always do what gives us the most bang for the smallest buck.

The world is constantly changing and, in some ways, improving. Ten years from now life will be so different that there is almost no point in trying to make predictions. The technology of batteries is changing so fast that by the time the structural battery pack with 4680 cells is in the Cybertruck even Tesla will already be working on its next generation of batteries. As vehicle buyers we must [all] decide what features we require and make our purchase decisions based on those and whatever other decision metrics we use, and not on what the world might be like in N years. That is a losing battle. If you think like that you would never buy anything and most likely never leave your cocoon. I made my decision to order a Cybertruck based on the features Tesla announced on unveiling night. It has only gotten better since then. I am satisfied, both with the design and with Tesla's passion to make the Cybertruck "the only truck you will need" (Franz). I hear and feel the anxiety about the design and the delay in production, but I have 100% faith in Tesla in this regard.

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[Challeco]

Yes it did. I was commenting specifically on @Ogre 's comment about range depletion on higher mileage vehicles.


I posted the miles on my vehicles, and noted in terms of range ability, that I didn't lose any range with over 200k miles on one of my vehicles and approaching 200k miles on another. I didn't comment on cost because I didn't think that was the question.

Loss of range is far more common in EVs then ICE vehicles. That was my only point. It's one of many points to consider when choosing to buy an EV over an ICE vehicle. There are pros and cons and that is OK.


I'm not going to get into it again here. I've expressed many times on this forum why my truck has to have 500 miles of EPA stated range. It boils down to the fact that I don't expect to get 500 miles and the charging infrastructure is not yet built out in some areas (near where I need it to be). Could I make it work today? Yes, but with massive concessions on my part that I would not be willing to make when I could just buy another gas truck for less $ up front.

I've missed the qualifying comments you reference. We can disagree with the importance of the range degradation, but I fully agree with you that trucks need to have a range that allows for a full day's work under load without the need for recharge. That and a minimum of 8 feet of bed length.

 

[Cybertruck Hawaii]

I'm going to catch hell for this here, but this is still one my gripes about EVs. I've also previously mentioned that I'm still hoping the CT battery's "longevity" performance and warranty are better than what is currently being offered with the other Tesla models.

The last truck I owed was a 97' F250 7.3L diesel. When I traded it in (2015), it had over 200k on it and I was getting about 16 MPGs. The diesel doesn't have an EPA rating, but it's pretty safe to say that 16 MPGs was damn close to what that truck got when it was new. So I lost next nothing in terms of range ability after 200k miles. I tracked some of the milage and maintenance via Fuelly. https://www.fuelly.com/car/ford/f-250/1997/lancethibault/167388 For comparison if it was getting 83% of it's initial range that would be about 13.3MPGs

My current truck is 2013 F150 with 115k miles. I get about 14.5-15MPG with 35s on it. Prior to putting the 35s on it I think I was around 75k miles I was still getting about 17 MPG. The EPA rating for this truck is 17 MPGs combined. So I lost no MPGs at around 75k miles.

My wife's last vehicle was a 2010 Explorer. She traded it in with 190k miles on it and she was getting 18 MPGs...which is still the EPA rating. Her current 2017 Explorer has 77k miles on it and she averages over 20 MPGs which is also right in line with the EPA numbers.

What is a 35s?

 

[Crissa]

What is a 35s?

Tires. Wheel size.

-Crissa

 

[Tinker71]

The world is constantly changing and, in some ways, improving. Ten years from now life will be so different that there is almost no point in trying to make predictions. The technology of batteries is changing so fast that by the time the structural battery pack with 4680 cells is in the Cybertruck even Tesla will already be working on its next generation of batteries. As vehicle buyers we must [all] decide what features we require and make our purchase decisions based on those and whatever other decision metrics we use, and not on what the world might be like in N years. That is a losing battle. If you think like that you would never buy anything and most likely never leave your cocoon. I made my decision to order a Cybertruck based on the features Tesla announced on unveiling night. It has only gotten better since then. I am satisfied, both with the design and with Tesla's passion to make the Cybertruck "the only truck you will need" (Franz). I hear and feel the anxiety about the design and the delay in production, but I have 100% faith in Tesla in this regard.

Well put. I can easily afford the CT3, but I can't stand sinking that much money into a vehicle. Any vehicle. Even if I had a million $ in the bank. I would rather give money to a good cause.

I do want the range, the power is almost a drawback. The reason I keep harping on the battery replacement is for my own decision in 18 months? Get the CT2 and be annoyed with the range 10x per year with the hope of upgrading the battery in 5 years or splurge on the CT3 or what ever gets me the most range and then be annoyed when the upgraded battery back is available for the CT2. Yes there are a dozen scenarios for trading up or down....I know.

What a waste of time worrying about it. I won't even get to firm up my order for at least 18 months.

 

[Deleted member 3316]

Another thing to think about is use case, once a Cybertruck has lost 80-60% of its battery capacity it will still be usable to someone, 150-200miles range is all some people need. A trades person that only works in their local area would have a cheap capable vehicle that isn’t going to cause too much wear to the other components.
Even then a battery with a 20% capacity would work fine as a home storage battery.

Cybertruck is going to be the 21st century Hilux, ubiquitous, unbreakable and iconic.

 

[Cybertruck Hawaii]

Tires. Wheel size.

-Crissa

35” diameter wheels or tires?

 

[Cybertruck Hawaii]

Tesla could cancel the Cybertruck and just make the model S, 3, X, and the Y model and still prosper.

 

[Cybertruck Hawaii]

I still have my single motor Cybertruck on order from May, 2021. I have not received any cancellation notice as of yet (May, 2022).

 

[charliemagpie]

My friend once said he didn't want the 286, because the 386 was coming.
I said when the 386 is here, you'll probably want to wait for the 486.
It's always been a tough call.


If the battery degrades 20% .. It is what it is.
The remaining 400 miles is enough for me to continue to use it effectively for 10 more years.

The base Lightning has under 300 miles. !!!! That piece of shining probably won’t make it to the end of the driveway after 200,000. The Hummer will be worse, it will blow up the driveway.

 

[rr6013]

Another thing to think about is use case, once a Cybertruck has lost 80-60% of its battery capacity it will still be usable to someone, 150-200miles range is all some people need. A trades person that only works in their local area would have a cheap capable vehicle that isn’t going to cause too much wear to the other components.
Even then a battery with a 20% capacity would work fine as a home storage battery.

Cybertruck is going to be the 21st century Hilux, ubiquitous, unbreakable and iconic.

Hilux, the little sport truck that could, is example#1.

Hilux is most popular worldwide for reason. Its used. Alot. Cybertruck and Wolverine, even more so, are Hilux category killers at the point where they offset diesel’s disadvantages.

Your points make clear, Tesla’s “cyber” advantage is that it affords so many more ways it can offset ICE disadvantages. Unquestionably, diesel energy density advantage will not be eroded. Hilux is just going to have more and more places that it can’t compete against battery and EV forms.

So it goes…until stranded.

 

[Muskwatcher]

Ok. I would not compare 2% loss to 18%... especially when a good portion of that 18% loss with an EV is in the first 1/2 of the 200k miles we're talking about. Also, the couple % loss with an ICE vehicle you mention has not been my experience. My fuelly stats show that I didn't lose a couple percent. I'm not saying it does not happen. But withe the last 4 vehicles we've owned it has not. Given I only have fuelly stats for the one vehicle. It's also the oldest one with the most miles on it.

I currently drive a 2014 Silverado that is regularly maintained, and have much more than a 2% loss compared to the starting EPA rating.

But lets suppose you're correct and well maintained ICE vehicles will only have 2% loss. We still need to consider the cost factor because of the money spent maintaining the ICE vehicle in order to keep MPG loss low.

Now for a second supposition, lets say that to maintain ICE MPG, and purchase a new EV battery pack cost the same. I think you will still be better off with the EV because the new battery pack will likely give you more range due to new tech, while the ICE will only keep its MPG at best.

 

[Ogre]

.

I still have my single motor Cybertruck on order from May, 2021. I have not received any cancellation notice as of yet (May, 2022).

Are you going to pick it up at the factory and drive it home.

 

[SpaceYooper]

I currently drive a 2014 Silverado that is regularly maintained, and have much more than a 2% loss compared to the starting EPA rating.

Me thinks I should never buy a Silverado... and it sounds like you should try a Ford

But lets suppose you're correct and well maintained ICE vehicles will only have 2% loss.

You don't have to "suppose". You can look at the fuelly stats from long ago and believe them or not. In which case, I'd like to know what you think my rational was for lying about them back then.

We still need to consider the cost factor because of the money spent maintaining the ICE vehicle in order to keep MPG loss low.

No, we don't need to consider cost because that is not what I was talking about. That's a different conversation. (Also, I don't spend anything beyond normal maintenance costs now nor did I back then with the F250...in fact, I would argue I spend less then normal since I certainly do no follow the service manuals for doing whatever they ask every x# of miles.) The only factor I need to consider is whether or not 500 miles of EV range is available or not. That is the starting point for me (and some others). It is the only reason I reserved a CT3 and did not consider for a second the CT1 or CT2, Rivian, Lightling, EV Silverado, nor Hummer. But I'm still holding out hope for the RAM since they were brave enough to say 500 miles of range also. If that range is not there, then there is no conversation to be had. It is not first about the cost to drive x miles. It is first about the ability to drive x miles. If I can not drive 500 miles an EV truck and I can do it an ICE truck; ICE wins. If I can do it in both, then we can talk cost and many other factors.

Now for a second supposition, lets say that to maintain ICE MPG, and purchase a new EV battery pack cost the same. I think you will still be better off with the EV because the new battery pack will likely give you more range due to new tech, while the ICE will only keep its MPG at best.

Interesting topic, but there are too many unknowns at this point. It's not something I would consider when making the purchase. In fact unless EM comes out and says it will be possible to replace the CT structural pack I will assume, when deciding to purchase or not, that it will not be possible for the duration of my ownership.

Here's to wishing for a CT pack that is EPA rated brand new for 560 miles and guaranteed by Tesla for 90% of that rating for 15yrs and 200k miles! Cheers!

***I have 1 caveat to the need for 500 miles of range. 500 miles is not as necessary as the infrastructure gets built out and as charging becomes faster. Having said that. I don't see any plans for future superchargers in the area I need them to be. I know they will eventually get there, but it won't be a priority for a while. Maybe I'll only have to hold a hard line at 350 miles of range for my second CT 20 years from now***

 

[Ogre]

Ok. I would not compare 2% loss to 18%... especially when a good portion of that 18% loss with an EV is in the first 1/2 of the 200k miles we're talking about. Also, the couple % loss with an ICE vehicle you mention has not been my experience. My fuelly stats show that I didn't lose a couple percent. I'm not saying it does not happen. But withe the last 4 vehicles we've owned it has not. Given I only have fuelly stats for the one vehicle. It's also the oldest one with the most miles on it.

We don’t know it’s going to be 18%.

It could be 5%. Or maybe 25%.

This is a new platform. New cells, new chemistry, new charge controller, new packaging, new cooling system….

We have no idea what the life of these cells will look like and won’t for at least 5 years. If you want security, this isn’t the route to go. I do think Tesla has a far better handle on this than anyone else, but we’re on the bleeding edge here.

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