Jhodgesatmb
Well-known member
- First Name
- Jack
- Joined
- Dec 1, 2019
- Threads
- 66
- Messages
- 5,119
- Reaction score
- 7,347
- Location
- San Francisco Bay area
- Website
- www.arbor-studios.com
- Vehicles
- Tesla Model Y LR, Tesla Model 3 LR
- Occupation
- Retired AI researcher
The world is constantly changing and, in some ways, improving. Ten years from now life will be so different that there is almost no point in trying to make predictions. The technology of batteries is changing so fast that by the time the structural battery pack with 4680 cells is in the Cybertruck even Tesla will already be working on its next generation of batteries. As vehicle buyers we must [all] decide what features we require and make our purchase decisions based on those and whatever other decision metrics we use, and not on what the world might be like in N years. That is a losing battle. If you think like that you would never buy anything and most likely never leave your cocoon. I made my decision to order a Cybertruck based on the features Tesla announced on unveiling night. It has only gotten better since then. I am satisfied, both with the design and with Tesla's passion to make the Cybertruck "the only truck you will need" (Franz). I hear and feel the anxiety about the design and the delay in production, but I have 100% faith in Tesla in this regard.I am very skeptical about the longevity of the structural battery pack. The glues in the pack will be undergoing constant stress and strain, which I am sure has been tested, but resins are volatile and do breakdown over time so really only time will tell. But in general that lines up with your battery replacement comment. I think for the next ten years battery resources are going to be in very high demand and that will keep the battery replacement cost, even aftermarket, very high. The structural pack will also be harder to replace do to it being more integral to the structure. I also have to imagine that these structural packs are going to be much much harder to recycle due to a massive amount of adhesives.
Trucks tend to hold their value very well and in my experience with ICE trucks is that almost always the cost of repairs is well under the resale value so it makes sense to do the repairs. At ten years the wear and tear on vehicles in my experience is still usually acceptable with minimal upkeep along the way. I have found that its usually closer to 15 years that the seats and plastic are faded or cracking, the suspension is making too many noises, the seals are tearing or cracking, the exterior plastic and lights are very oxidized. And in general there are just numerous cosmetic issues. Obviously the CT won't have paint issues, but that usually seems to be done around 15 years also.
Usually for me its all that other nonsense that makes me want to get a newer vehicle. I don't want to spend a bunch time and money replacing cosmetics and seals because it feels like a money pit. I feel like at that point your keeping up a classic car vs. a daily driver and the question is less is this financially wise rather do I want this car in my life enough to keep it up. I am thinking that due to the very high upfront cost, the CT will be considered a lifetime vehicle for many and if the CT resale is still above $20k and making the major repairs doesn't put me too far in the red then I would probably spend the money to do the repairs.
Last paragraph I promise. I am very hopeful that battery technology is going to have some major breakthroughs in the next ten years. Depending on the production and popularity of the CT, I am hopeful that there will be updgraded batteries made to retrofit the CT at that 10 year mark that would increase the range. If not, I suspect that may be what kills the EV increased life. If there are much better trucks out there with better battery tech, I think people will opt for those rather than dump money into their old stainless CT. My economics professor told us in the very first class that people are greedy maximizers. We will generally always do what gives us the most bang for the smallest buck.
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