Elon Says Final Cybertruck Design is Now Locked! Updated Production Timeline = Mid-2023

[Crissa]

In 1993 I bought a Maytag fridge. Double doors, ice maker. Old-fashioned quality build. Nothing flimsy, you just knew it would last many many years. Moved into 4 houses. It lasted 25 years. In the end, I probably could/should have called a repair man... but decided to renew.

That may have been the exception, but compressors have gotten much more efficient every decade since.

... and re your LG... This is why some countries require long warranties. LG has gone to pot of late, yeah.

-Crissa

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[DMC-81]

Toyotas are well made vehicles. What's your criteria for fit and finish?

Your newer Model Y replaced an older
Toyota. That's not an apples to apples comparison for fit and finish.

The complaint of Tesla's fit and finish (whatever that means) is not overstated today. Tesla has improved, but still has a ways to go before "Fit and Finish" comparisons can be made with a Toyota/Lexus.

You were saying?

Two thoughts:
1) When I took my daughter car shopping last year, we test drove a Toyota Corolla. We were expecting good quality because of the "Toyota = good quality" mantra that you repeated.
However, we were unimpressed at the value. Price versus quality. From an agnostic buyer, it didn't make the cut on our short list.
2) I recently looked at a new Model 3, Model Y, and Model S Plaid, and was very impressed. I was specifically looking for flaws, but found none.

 

[Crissa]

As far as I know (and I watch alot of EV news)...

• There's no Cadmium in anyone's vehicle batteries that I know of.
• We don't know the chemistry of the Silverado batteries.
• There are 2170 LFP batteries.
• There's no reason LFP couldn't be made in the 4680 format that I know of.
• Tesla is buying LFP from someone else. We don't know if this is a combination of someones or not at this point, or whether they're using Blade batteries in China, but we're pretty sure they're not at Fremont.
• Tesla isn't building LFP 4680 batteries.
• Tesla has no plans to merge with BYD or CATL.

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

Did you miss Elon calling out that GigaFactories are a massive money burning machine right now? https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/23/mus...tin-factories-losing-billions-of-dollars.html

In the same breath, “bankruptcy” was used as real if the supply chain isn’t working and soon.
https://www.autoevolution.com/news/...are-losing-insane-money-right-now-191914.html

They are. Factories working at 10-25% capacity are not profitable. This isn’t shocking or super unexpected.

 

[firsttruck]

In 1993 I bought a Maytag fridge. Double doors, ice maker. Old-fashioned quality build. Nothing flimsy, you just knew it would last many many years. Moved into 4 houses. It lasted 25 years. In the end, I probably could/should have called a repair man... but decided to renew.

The LG fridge which followed, lasted months before the plastic in the veg draw cracked, the shelf in the freezer cracked. Looks nice, but the overall build is cheap, you can just feel the differences.

Chalk and cheese.

Let's compare and value these vehicles after 5 years on the road.

You were saying?

Two thoughts:
1) When I took my daughter car shopping last year, we test drove a Toyota Corolla. We were expecting good quality because of the "Toyota = good quality" mantra that you repeated.
However, we were unimpressed at the value. Price versus quality. From an agnostic buyer, it didn't make the cut on our short list.
2) I recently looked at a new Model 3, Model Y, and Model S Plaid, and was very impressed. I was specifically looking for flaws, but found none.

Not just LG & Toyota. Many people think Honda is supposed to make quaility products.


Honda Ridgeline trucks made so poorly that "minor" thing like the ICE gas tank supports corrode off and the tank falls out with potential fire risk.

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2006–2014 Honda Ridgelines Recalled for Fuel Tank Detachment Risk More than 100,000 pickup trucks sold in Salt Belt states could be affected by corrosion that could potentially lead to fuel leakage.
By Sasha Richie Jun 22, 2022
https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a40374906/honda-ridgeline-fuel-tank-recall/
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Ford F-150 trucks where "minor" things like windshield falls out or wipers not working.

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Ford Recalls F-150 and Super Duty Trucks Because the Windshield Can Pop Out The automaker warns that the windshield may not be bonded properly.
This recall affects 79,017 trucks in the U.S. and federal territories, 6,986 in Canada, and 1,347 in Mexico.
By Jeff S. Bartlett
Updated February 25, 2021
https://www.consumerreports.org/car...s-because-windshield-can-pop-out-a7932880450/
--------------

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Ford F-150 Pickup Trucks Recalled for Faulty Windshield Wipers If the wipers stop working in bad weather, drivers may not be able to see the road.
Ford is recalling over 157,000 F-150 pickup trucks from the 2021 model year because their windshield wipers may stop working. If this happens during rain or snow and drivers can’t see where they are going, it could lead to a crash. The problem is due to a faulty batch of windshield wiper motors.
By Keith Barry
March 16, 2022
https://www.consumerreports.org/car...kup-trucks-for-windshield-wipers-a5038627955/
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Where is the 24 hour/7-day for years media coverage of serious problems from legacy manufacturers that Tesla's real minor panel gaps problems get.

 

[Tinker71]

I am not surprised at all about Lucid being slightly more efficient than the Model S. I am doubtful that a ton of focus on improving the S is going on since the Plaid version arrived and even then it was more focused on performance than efficiency really. Tesla has much higher volume vehicles where efforts for efficiency pays vastly larger dividends for them and consumers. As per my late grandmother: you can only spread the butter so thin before the bread starts tasting dry. LOL

The CD on the Lucid is a little better, but I think the 800v architecture is the main differentiator. Everything gets lighter. I am not sure how hard it would be to change out the parts. Lucid motors are very light and compact. If Tesla went with motors similar that would probably be a major redesign.

I agree though, Tesla has better places to put their resources. Many people may avoid the Lucid just because they can't be sure it will be around in 5 years.

 

[Tinker71]

They are. Factories working at 10-25% capacity are not profitable. This isn’t shocking or super unexpected.

I am pretty sure @rr6013 gets this concept and didn't need to be schooled.

While slightly ruthless, purging your bottom 10% performers is not horrible for a business that needs to perform and remain lean. I think Elon being "super nervous about the economy" and whining about start up cost for the plants is him justifying the layoff in the court of public opinion.

It really sucks for some of the people about to get hired. They never had a chance to prove themselves. I hope they actually can find the low performers rather than keeping yes men or targeting people that don't fit the mold.

There are going to be a lot more lawsuits for discrimination.

 

[charliemagpie]

With head office moving to Austin, a clean up was always on the cards.

Maybe some of these newbies were union , just maybe a subversive network was building

maybe

 

[Monkchoi]

Did they ask about potential price changes? Hopefully Elon keeps his word about price (not likely ha!)
Glad that he's realized that following other manufacturers' lead can be a good thing (quad motors, rear wheel steering) just as other manufacturers have followed Tesla.

I would be bummed if it goes up 10k to 15k when it comes out. The main reason I jumped on it because it was 50K for the dual engine. Pretty reasonable based on the current mkt price of cars/trucks nowadays. Has anyone locked in a preorder tesla car in the past and by the time it came out, tesla sold it at that price?

 

[Monkchoi]

The next time I get excited about the CT will be when I get THAT email! At my age-77- the clock is working against me.

The cybertruck was supposed to be my mid life crisis purchase. That ship has sailed. I guess I'll have to buy a ducati V2 street fighter to hold me over.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

No idea. Probably none, but you can never know what regionalization they'll do. Make sure your Tesla.com account is up to date! ^-^


When did he say this?

He said in 2019 that 225k was their target. He's said 250k more recently - that's the product of one gigapress.

-Crissa

Up to the gigapress comment I was in agreement with you, but EM never said that the 250,000 CTs per year would assume a single gigapress. We know that by the end of 2022 they will only have, at most, one 9K-ton gigapress. I question how many castings can be made from one 9K-ton gigapress and no one will know for some time. I suppose a reasonable guess would be 150,000 worth but that would be about 500/day or 1,000 castings per day. We haven't seen that kind of volume on any of the GA casting machines (yet).

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

I am absolutely certain that the first deliveries will be based on the customers' distance from the factory.

Sincerely,
CyberGus
Austin, TX

If the current rollout is the pattern then you are right. Employees and influencers first, Austin and surroundings second, and then nationwide. That said, the amount of time seems to be short for those 2 waves, and I am glad I won't be in either of those waves. Being out at 80,000 on the trim has its advantages.

 

[CHC]

Out of Spec Reviews Youtube channel did highway speed loop tests on range for both Rivian and Ford. I believe they were in the 2mi/kwh range. To be exact, Rivian R1T was 2.15 mi/kwh on that test. The R1T is smaller than the CT, but let's assume the CT will get the same 2.15 mi/kwh on the highway.

That means the CT will need a 185 kwh battery to get a true 400 miles on the highway. Luckily payload (if under the tonneau and not contributing to drag) has minimal effect on range... roughly 5% drop or less according to real world tests.

I have read in the past many sites that predicted the CT battery would be in the 185 kwh range to get that "up to 500 miles range" number. It makes sense to be about 185 kwh because you need 2.7 mi/kwh to get the 500mi range. If you are driving 55 mph you might be able to hit 2.7 mi/kwh. The model X plaid gets just under 3 mi/kwh, so it's possible the CT hits that 2.7 mi/kwh number.

I'm going to assume the CT will be in that 185 kwh battery size for the "500 mile" range model. Anything smaller from the battery pack, and that means we are going to see 400 mi range models come off the line first. I would expect that we don't get anything under 400 mi range for CT, because then why not just go get a Ford or Chevy and Tesla wants to back up that it has the most capable vehicle in the category. I'm guessing we will get the battery being 150 kwh and 400 mi range for the first ones, with later options being the 185 kwh battery and 500 mi range.

I would be truly surprised if the quad motor has anything less than a 200kwh battery.

 

[Tinker71]

Up to the gigapress comment I was in agreement with you, but EM never said that the 250,000 CTs per year would assume a single gigapress. We know that by the end of 2022 they will only have, at most, one 9K-ton gigapress. I question how many castings can be made from one 9K-ton gigapress and no one will know for some time. I suppose a reasonable guess would be 150,000 worth but that would be about 500/day or 1,000 castings per day. We haven't seen that kind of volume on any of the GA casting machines (yet).

Remember the 9000T machine is only required for the rear cast. A normal 6000T machine can do the front. Assuming 1000 per day. 250 K per year should be easy.

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