More 500-mile range rumors!

[cvalue13]

I think the "X factor" that makes the Cybertruck different is towing range. All of Teslas other cars don't have this as a competitive thing with other companies. It is a comparison that will be made regularly and in most articles when the CT comes out.

true

and yet…

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[cvalue13]

and achieve a 500 mile range with a battery smaller than 200kWh.

you’ll be half right!

 

[Diehard]

I have no real stats on % of the trucks that tow or do long distance travel regularly but if it is considerable, with current charging infrastructure, Tesla must be having a 500+ mile truck in the works (unless improving charging network proves to be easier and faster).

I have a feeling (not big on researching verified facts) Tesla is involved with one of the million new promising techs we hear about every day and is either working on a higher density battery or working with a company that shows some promise and 500 mile CT will be released when that Tech is ready for prime time. Until then there is enough demand for 300 mile CTs to keep the factory running at capacity for several years.

May be there is a band-aid solution until that tech matures. You could put three powerwalls in bed for an extra 100 miles but I suspect not many will be OK with additional 1000 Ibs and $35K. It should not be long before they announce what is going on. Not that we will ever run out of speculations but we will just have to wait and see.

 

[Rutrow]

Doesn’t the weight of the pack include the electronics? Does the shell and electronics weigh twice as much when there are 2x cells?

Do they weigh the packs when they're fully charged? or near empty? To find the extra weight of a charged battery you need to solve for E=mc^2. Place 100kWh on the left side of the equation and solve for "m".

JK

 

[cvalue13]

I have no real stats on % of the trucks that tow or do long distance travel regularly but if it is considerable, with current charging infrastructure, Tesla must be having a 500+ mile truck in the works (unless improving charging network proves to be easier and faster).

I have a feeling (not big on researching verified facts) Tesla is involved with one of the million new promising techs we hear about every day and is either working on a higher density battery or working with a company that shows some promise and 500 mile CT will be released when that Tech is ready for prime time. Until then there is enough demand for 300 mile CTs to keep the factory running at capacity for several years.

May be there is a band-aid solution until that tech matures. You could put three powerwalls in bed for an extra 100 miles but I suspect not many will be OK with additional 1000 Ibs and $35K. It should not be long before they announce what is going on. Not that we will ever run out of speculations but we will just have to wait and see.

if they don’t have a 500mi truck at this reveal event, I’d bet we hear something about “and by this time next year** we’ll have a 500mi version”



**Elon time

 

[anionic1]

One of the biggest advantages of 4680 cells is weight savings. Expect the cybertruck to weigh much less than the competition, and achieve a 500 mile range with a battery smaller than 200kWh.

Everything I have read on the 4680 packs indicates there is negligible energy density increase in the cells. If we are expecting to see some huge weight saving I don’t think we will. The truck body is 2-3x heavier that a traditional steel body and even heavier than an aluminum body. So any savings on the CT structural pack is likely lost in the weight of that body in my opinion. The castings probably save weight. I guess we will know soon.

 

[PilotPete]

Do they weigh the packs when they're fully charged? or near empty? To find the extra weight of a charged battery you need to solve for E=mc^2. Place 100kWh on the left side of the equation and solve for "m".

JK

NOW I understand energy density! Thanks! Those electrons have to weigh something!

 

[Eddyrelik]

Given the fact that basically only one Release Candidate has been spotted towing a trailer, I don’t feel strong that they’re really testing or trying to prove anything yet with towing. Which may mean 500 mile version is not out initially….

 

[GhostAndSkater]

You guys discussing that it costs too much are forgetting IRA manufacturing credits

There is plenty of space for a double stacked nearly 200 kWh pack, even more now that the 4680s V2 are 95 Wh per cell, but let's go with 180 kWh for 500 miles since that my prediction and compare to other Tesla vehicles

Model 3 (Base) - 60 kWh LFP pack, no manufacturing credits, cost likely around 80$/kWh - $4800

Model 3/Y P/LR - 78 to 82 kWh, rounded to 80 kWh, around 100$/kWh - $8000 in cells, but those are made in the USA, there is a 35$/kWh cell manufacturing credit that is split with Panasonic plus $10/kWh that is all for Tesla - overall cost $5800

Model S/X 100 kWh - Low volume of cells and they are made in Japan, lets say 110$/kWh - $11000, no credits

Cybertruck 500 miles - 180 kWh, today also 100$/kWh - full IRA credits - $9900 - 4680 will get cheaper, or already are, last number Elon gave us was 70$/kWh, with that $4500

Cybertruck 350 miles - 126 kWh - full credits - $7150@100$/kWh and $3250@70$/kWh

Cost of a bigger pack is not an issue with the IRA manufacturing credit and with the lower cost 4680 have/will have, it can be even cheaper than all other packs today, but obviously those will go down in cost as time goes on also

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

The 500+ mile range version was slated to be released last, not first. My point is, I doubt you will know the weight of the 500+ mile version by the end of next month!

They changed it from last to first a week or so after the unveiling.

 

[TheLastStarfighter]

Everything I have read on the 4680 packs indicates there is negligible energy density increase in the cells. If we are expecting to see some huge weight saving I don’t think we will. The truck body is 2-3x heavier that a traditional steel body and even heavier than an aluminum body. So any savings on the CT structural pack is likely lost in the weight of that body in my opinion. The castings probably save weight. I guess we will know soon.

You're confused on a couple of things. Tesla never claimed any increased energy density with 4680 whatsoever. What they did claim is that they are cheaper and lighter for the same energy. That means they can pack in more kWh into a car without increasing the price, and it also means you can get more range out of the same kWh since weight is a significant factor.

The other thing is the thicker steel is meant to enable the truck to function as a (more) capable full size truck while not being body on frame. ie, the truck is built unibody like a Ridgeline, but can do more truck stuff than an F-150. So the weight gain in the skin is more than offset by the lack of a traditional ladder frame.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

if they don’t have a 500mi truck at this reveal event, I’d bet we hear something about “and by this time next year** we’ll have a 500mi version”



**Elon time

Tesla never would have said they were going to sell a tri-motor variant with a 500+ mile range unless they knew for a fact that they could do it back in 2019. You know it, we know it. If they have changed their minds about whether to sell a 500+-mile truck that is a different thing. But they ‘can’ do it. Elon said many times that it is very important that the Cybertruck be affordable and that it has been challenging making it affordable, so that may be part of the problem. The delay in the delivery event is probably more related to his alignment email than anything else mentioned here.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

You're confused on a couple of things. Tesla never claimed any increased energy density with 4680 whatsoever. What they did claim is that they are cheaper and lighter for the same energy. That means they can pack in more kWh into a car without increasing the price, and it also means you can get more range out of the same kWh since weight is a significant factor.

The other thing is the thicker steel is meant to enable the truck to function as a (more) capable full size truck while not being body on frame. ie, the truck is built unibody like a Ridgeline, but can do more truck stuff than an F-150. So the weight gain in the skin is more than offset by the lack of a traditional ladder frame.

Well, you are just wrong about that. In a recent meeting they explicitly talked about an increase in energy density at the cell level. It may not be what they originally expected but it is definitely improving over time.

 

[TheLastStarfighter]

Well, you are just wrong about that. In a recent meeting they explicitly talked about an increase in energy density at the cell level. It may not be what they originally expected but it is definitely improving over time.

They want to increase energy density in the cell, sure. But there was 0 claims about increased energy density from switching to 4680. That was not one of its stated advantages.

 

[newwave1331]

Please let me know if any of my assumptions are false or need to be tweeted so I adjust.

Assumptions:

1. 4680 Cybercell is 95.2Wh at launch (99.5 available with 4680 2nd line at the end of 2024 for small and large packs), 3.7V, 25.73Ah, 0.783 lbs
2. 108 cells in each string to get 400V and can switch to two strings in series to get 800V.
3. Pack weight is cells + 500 lbs of structural material
4. Usable Pack Capacity is 92-93.5%
5. CoE: 0.345 (average of simulation 0.39 and Elon's best case of 0.30)
6. Length: 227in
7. Width: 78in
8. Height: 75in
9. Ground Clearance: 10.5in
10. rho: 1.225
11. Rolling Resistance is about 5% higher than Model X
12. Dual motor Cybertruck energy usage is about 25% higher than Model X at 48.3mph (EPA average speed)
13. Dual Cybertruck with no battery about 5250 lbs (average between a scaled 4680 Model Y w/o pack and a dual motor model X w/o pack, +5% for stainless)
14. Raised 2019 pricing by 20% (FRED shows about 23% for new vehicles)
15. Lowered pricing based on Tesla passing on 67% of the IRA battery manufacturing subsidy ($35/kWh).
16. All versions of cybertruck will be class 2 trucks. (GVWR <10k lbs)
17. Transport vehicle can carry 37k of vehicles
18. The 2nd 4680 line at Texas is starting to come online in mid 2024

500+ mile is doable with the IRA battery manufacturer credits like @GhostAndSkater mentioned. Factor in the $7500 fed buyer credits and these prices come in pretty close to unveil night. These specs and prices should be the nail in the coffin to light duty ICE pickups. If things get competitive, they can probably cut another $2k each by passing on 100% of the battery manufacturer credit. It may seem like too many trim levels but its 3 pack sizes (which unveil would have needed) and 3 motor configurations (quad would replace tri).

Elon/Tesla's creditability would be at stake if they didn't offer a 500+ mile variant in the near future. The days of Tesla being the only game in town is over. Well unless UAW bankrupts the big 3 and Rivian runs out of cash.

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