Poll: How many preorders will turn into orders?

How many preorders will turn into orders?


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amykonecny

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I'm curious what you think. I'm guessing between 50 and 75% of preorders will turn into orders; how about you?
I'm guessing around 50%. Actually I'm betting on around 50% since I need to get my finances in order so I can afford to pay for it. I've been waiting for an BEV that will fit my needs as a work vehicle for years so waiting a bit longer is no big deal for me.
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Carlos Thomas

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I don't see how they will have higher than 35% conversion from $100 refundable deposit to a (on average) $70k truck out the door. Even at that conversion rate I think Tesla would call it a success. The problem is that they cannot product the truck soon or fast enough. The further the delivery of a truck to someones driveway, the chances of retaining that sale becomes very difficult. We are looking at 2025 before some of the folks in reality will even get one. That is 7 years from announcement to delivery. Life changes, competition grows and financial cash flow might look a lot different to a person a few years away.

So if they convert above 35% I would be shocked.
 
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I don't see how they will have higher than 35% conversion from $100 refundable deposit to a (on average) $70k truck out the door. Even at that conversion rate I think Tesla would call it a success. The problem is that they cannot product the truck soon or fast enough. The further the delivery of a truck to someones driveway, the chances of retaining that sale becomes very difficult. We are looking at 2025 before some of the folks in reality will even get one. That is 7 years from announcement to delivery. Life changes, competition grows and financial cash flow might look a lot different to a person a few years away.

So if they convert above 35% I would be shocked.
I agree also beyond that point I feel like half of the pre-orders are from other countries that will never even get it
 

Ogre

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I agree also beyond that point I feel like half of the pre-orders are from other countries that will never even get it
I sure hope there are a bunch of really early overseas reservations… I figure every 2,000 overseas reservations, RWD holdout, or cancellation moves my delivery date up a week.
 

carpedatum

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I feel like the take-rate for the entire pool of reservations would be very hard to predict, given that they'd take such a long time to fulfill, and the amount of change that can occur in that time frame (both positive and negative).

A refinement of the question seems possible, though, given history. With Model 3, Tesla employees got their vehicles first and the conversion rate among them was close to 100%, for several months at least. When consumers could get theirs, there were very high conversion rates early-on and anyone willing to part with their new M3 could get more for it than they paid for it, from someone who didn't have an early reservation. Granted, those folks had a larger investment ($1k vs $100), but could also make easy money and this effect could be even stronger for CT, given its apparently-massive demand.

If history repeats itself, there will be CT buyers who are early reservation holders who simply choose to profit by buying and selling right away. Really, anyone who's become disinterested due to delay but has an early-days reservation could still look forward to doing that transaction at a point, and pocketing some decent money.

At some point these effects go away. Certainly by the moment at which a person who doesn't have a reservation can actually order a CT and get it in a sorta-reasonable amount of time, as one might today with a Model 3, the opportunity to "flip" a CT purchase dissolves, and the conversion rate from reservations to sales will dip because profit motive disappears.

So another way to frame the question might be "How many CTs will have to be built before the reservation conversion rate drops below 75%?" or some such thing... I would be willing to bet that figure is a few hundred thousand trucks, still years worth of production capacity.
 


madquadbiker

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I agree also beyond that point I feel like half of the pre-orders are from other countries that will never even get it
And the sooner we have that decision the better, nothing worse that hanging in there for a lost cause, life’s to short. I want the stainless steel work of art but wishing for one doesn’t make it so.
 

Ogre

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So another way to frame the question might be "How many CTs will have to be built before the reservation conversion rate drops below 75%?" or some such thing... I would be willing to bet that figure is a few hundred thousand trucks, still years worth of production capacity.
If it’s a home run and impresses everyone, the take rate will be 95% all the way through.

If it’s a bloop single, it’ll be high for 6 months then drop off to 65-70%

If they go all Chevy Bolt and burn people’s houses down… 10%

It’s a 3-4+ year back-log which they won’t even start to burn through for 10-13 months. Lots can happen in 4-5 years to affect total take rate.
 

SpaceYooper

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I still find this poll to be one of the most interesting threads here. It's been about a year since last commented on. A lot has happened in the world since that time. I wonder if opinions have changed. Mine has not.
 

NJturtlePower

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If the auto market is anything like what it is today next year you'd be silly not to convert....easy money flip even if that's all you're in for.

There's a Rivian R1T down the road at a Porsche dealer trying to get $105k for what was likely an early res. holder order that topped out at $75-80k.
 

Jhodgesatmb

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I still find this poll to be one of the most interesting threads here. It's been about a year since last commented on. A lot has happened in the world since that time. I wonder if opinions have changed. Mine has not.
Mine has not. I watched a youtube video by ConnectingODots yesterday that talked about the possibility of Tesla using 'brake-by-wire' in addition to 'steer-by-wire' because they eliminate all hydraulic lines and provide enhanced braking/steering control with greater simplicity and reduced overall cost, and it made me even more convinced that the Cybertruck will be the best truck. That is, assuming that these technologies are implemented. But 'steer-by-wire' is pretty much a necessity for 4WS and if you are going that way you might as well go all the way so I think his guesses are valid.
 


rr6013

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Tesla using 'brake-by-wire' in addition to 'steer-by-wire' because they eliminate all hydraulic lines and provide enhanced braking/steering control with greater simplicity and reduced overall cost, and it made me even more convinced that the Cybertruck will be the best truck
Whoaaa Cyber*

NHTSA is a slow poke to approve anything “car”. Hell it can’t even decide whether cameras are better than a plateglass mirror. Even with ”objects in mirror are closer than they appear” distortion, NHTSA death-grips a standard set hundred years ago.

Category 5 autonomous driverless vehicle
'brake-by-wire' in addition to 'steer-by-wire' are unlikely until it approves FSD driverless operation. Even then the mandate could keep mechanical in the loop for reasons electrical.
 

anionic1

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At this point we should be asking what is the reality that the truck will come out in the middle of a recession and is it worth spending $65k to $85k on a depreciating asset.
 

Jhodgesatmb

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Whoaaa Cyber*

NHTSA is a slow poke to approve anything “car”. Hell it can’t even decide whether cameras are better than a plateglass mirror. Even with ”objects in mirror are closer than they appear” distortion, NHTSA death-grips a standard set hundred years ago.

Category 5 autonomous driverless vehicle
'brake-by-wire' in addition to 'steer-by-wire' are unlikely until it approves FSD driverless operation. Even then the mandate could keep mechanical in the loop for reasons electrical.
I never said anything about autonomy nor am I particularly interested in it wrt this discussion.

According to that youtube video:



there have already been 'steer-by-wire' systems on production vehicles. Did you watch the video? I do not see how Tesla is going to have 4WS without an electronic system and doesn't Lexus have it? The following article talks about the two types of systems on cars today:

https://www.autoweek.com/news/techn...hrottle-are-replacing-mechanical-connections/

And from the Brembo website:

https://www.brembo.com/en/company/news/brembo-unveils-sensify

Brembo is planning on putting Sensify into a production vehicle by 2024. I do not see how replacing a hydraulic system with an electro-mechanical system would violate any FMVSS requirements.
 

ÆCIII

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I think as the Cybertruck production begins and we begin seeing some on the road, it's going to turn some heads, but also will get some rave reviews from those fortunate enough to experiencing driving and owning one.

Since the initial production ramp may not be fast, I believe many will want to see some reviews or evaluate carefully if they are considering cancellation, because to reserve again will put them likely three years or more further behind in the waiting line.

But, since the reservation price was much cheaper than the Model ≡, there could be a larger number of frivolous insincere reservations in the mix, from some who might not have the understanding or appreciation of what the Cybertruck really will be.

So, I'm guessing slightly more cancellations percentage wise in the first year compared to the Model ≡, but not a huge difference. After the Cybertruck becomes more appreciated for its utility, performance, and tech, with the style 'growing' on people more, I think the cancellation rate will drop and the demand will grow huge just like orders for the Model ≡/Y are today.

-ÆCIII

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