Cybertruck deliveries to hit 100-120k in 2024 says analyst Ming-Chi Kuo

[Luftpilot]

and no ramp, and there are mirrors, and there is a BAW instead of a laser or electromagnetic wiper, ... let the exodus begin (note that I said nothing about range - still holding out hope on that one).

...and price...

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[Sousray]

Just to give My 2 cents worth.
I know some suppliers of the CT front body pieces that are Tier 1 suppliers to Tesla.
These suppliers were told to have parts ready at Austin plant by 3 Nov 2023.
the quantities per day equal close to Elon's estimated production rate of 330K - 375K a year.
So, for me, This is good news, I believe that full production will start on 6 Nov 2023.
I also believe that since I reserved within 30 seconds of the opening, I am in the Austin area and very close to the top of the list, I should get my CT in Nov?? HOPING!!!!!

 

[Deleted member 8313]

 

[sstevens805]

'analyst '

'ANALyst' with rectally-derived facts

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

specifically, he responded to the question of what would be the CT’s max run rate when fully ramped. He has never said that 2024 would achieve ‘fully ramped.’

For all we know, ‘fully ramped’ requires more gigapresses and significantly more battery production.

but as we best understand it, ~250k a year would ~max out current gigapress capacity, and 250k units would actually be a more common ratio of units to a parts order for 375k max capacity.

all-in-all, the point is that I personally don’t have a hard view on what total production in 2024 could look like - even assuming no press or battery constraints.

and I inject observations like those above only to the extent people fly in with these high numbers supported by hopium, primarily.

and to be fair to us unsure and skeptical, it was only 1 year ago that on this forum people were casually in agreement as common sense that production would be 500k ‘or more’ by the end of 2023

In the 4th Quarter Earnings Call in 2022 they talked of a slow but exponential ramp, starting in 2023 but reaching full production in 2024:



At the 2023 Annual Shareholder Meeting they said:

"There will be a S-curve production. So it will be slow at first, and then ramping up. I guess we will see what the demand is but we are likely to make 250,000 a year – maybe more. It depends what the demand is like."

Of course, Elon has been inconsistent in his timing in almost every aspect but it has seemed to me that he meant full production in 2024. One could argue that that only means that, by the end of 2024, they will hit a production rate of 5,000 CTs/week, and that it says nothing about how many CTs will be produced by the end of 2024. Tesla's production ramps have typically been exponential but the question then becomes what is the doubling time. It seems like it is every month or every other month. If they double production every other month, then they would double (starting in January for example) 6 times in 2024. We have already seen that they can produce close to 100 CTs per week on the low-volume line, so it is not a stretch to guess that, when the high-volume line is operational, that they would at least be able to build 100 CTs per week. That would put production at 5,000 per week sometime next fall. Conservatively averaging the middle of these jumps I see about 90,000 CTs having been made by the end of 2024. All of this is very conservative, though still a complete guess based on no other knowledge than them starting 2024 at a run rate of 100/week and doubling every other month.

 

[cvalue13]

One could argue that that only means that, by the end of 2024, they will hit a production rate of 5,000 CTs/week, and that it says nothing about how many CTs will be produced by the end of 2024.

yes, this is basically my working assumption. Hitting a run-rate of 250k during the last week of 2024 does not equate to building 250k in calendar year 2024.

We have already seen that they can produce close to 100 CTs per week on the low-volume line

We most definitely have not. The low volume line built a total of ~114 units over ~3+ months (June to late Sept.)

Conservatively averaging the middle of these jumps I see about 90,000 CTs having been made by the end of 2024.

seems a reasonable if low estimate, not out of line with the 100-120k arrived at by the analyst that is the subject of this thread

I’d otherwise think it all comes down to supply weakest link. Batteries we know to be very constrained at the moment. In which case, their ability to scale absent constraints is sort of irrelevant.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

yes, this is basically my working assumption. Hitting a run-rate of 250k during the last week of 2024 does not equate to building 250k in calendar year 2024.



We most definitely have not. The low volume line built a total of ~114 units over ~3+ months (June to late Sept.)




seems a reasonable if low estimate, not out of line with the 100-120k arrived at by the analyst that is the subject of this thread

I’d otherwise think it all comes down to supply weakest link. Batteries we know to be very constrained at the moment. In which case, their ability to scale absent constraints is sort of irrelevant.

I based that 100/week on the fact that Joe saw 12 new CTs (9 in the lot, 3 in the building) on one day before they shut down the LV line. In fact they were only doing that every other day so it might have been more like 50 per week but 12 a day, if they were running a HV line, would come close to 100/week. It seems like a very conservative starting point (to me). Of course, I agree with what Elon and you said about the weakest link in the supply chain, but 100/week is not going to be the breaking point in the supply chain; it will be more like thousands per week, and we probably wouldn't hit that snag until the second quarter next year. And by then they might have those issues resolved anyway.

 

[scottf200]

One of the most respected and accurate Apple analysts in the world, Ming-Chi Kuo gives his estimates for Cybertruck delivery figures in 2023, 2024 and 2025.

1. The current shipment estimates for the Cybertruck in 2023, 2024, and 2025 are 100–200, 100,000–120,000, and 240,000–260,000 units, respectively.
2. The innovative designs of Cybertruck (such as aerodynamic efficiency) are expected to maintain its competitive advantage until 2030, meaning the all-new designed Cybertruck 2 will likely not start shipping until 2030.
3. Before the launch of Cybertruck 2, there will be versions of the Cybertruck with upgraded or modified specifications but with an essentially unchanged form factor design.
4. It’s clear that the Cybertruck will be a significant contributor to Tesla’s revenue and profit growth for years to come, and this contribution is expected to remain unaffected by seasonality or economic downturns for the foreseeable future.

The problem is the shortage of batteries!
Right?

 

[cvalue13]

I based that 100/week on the fact that Joe saw 12 new CTs (9 in the lot, 3 in the building) on one day before they shut down the LV line.

well, the notion that the LV line could do anything like 100/Wk or 10/day is waaaay off

Trucks are also stored and completed inside. And they’re not completed in some uniform fashion (eg they could have 15 units sitting for a week awaiting a final part).

outside, in the outbound lot, the numbers seen aren’t related to the internal build rate

regardless of how you got there, I wouldn’t have any bearing or reason to disagree with the HV line starting at 100/wk and quickly ramping

that said, I think it’s possible the battery constraint is more material than your comment suggests.

 

[PilotPete]

The problem is the shortage of batteries!
Right?

In order to assist ramp up, Tesla MIGHT look outside to cover on either the short or long term... At that point, the battery assumptions we see here go out the window.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-lg-energy-solution-4680-battery-cell-program-update/

 

[intimidator]

From the OP:
One of the most respected and accurate Apple analysts in the world, Ming-Chi Kuo gives his estimates for Cybertruck delivery figures in 2023, 2024 and 2025.


HUH? Apple analysts?? uh, er, ok..... you're qualified..... NOT!!
This really is a "Nothing to see here." Just more FUD.

It is not FUD.
It is an educated guess.
Based on some basic, realistic assumptions.
a) It is Oct 11th and we have had zero deliveries.
b) The launch has not been announced yet.
c) They are still doing some RC testing and Baja testing.
d) So a few hundred deliveries, maybe a 1000? deliveries in Nov - December seems fair.
e) Elon said the ramp in early 2024 would be slow, so let's go with what Elon says.

100,000-150,000 deliveries in 2024 would seem to be as good a guess as anyone.
With not many in January - February, and a lot more in November - December 2024

 

[FarAway]

It is not FUD.
It is an educated guess.
Based on some basic, realistic assumptions.
a) It is Oct 11th and we have had zero deliveries.
b) The launch has not been announced yet.
c) They are still doing some RC testing and Baja testing.
d) So a few hundred deliveries, maybe a 1000? deliveries in Nov - December seems fair.
e) Elon said the ramp in early 2024 would be slow, so let's go with what Elon says.

100,000-150,000 deliveries in 2024 would seem to be as good a guess as anyone.
With not many in January - February, and a lot more in November - December 2024

I don't really see his opinions as a very "educated" guess. iPhones don't translate very well to electric trucks imho; to me it is more a "wag." (that is a "wild as guess").

The FUD, also my opinion, is when he starts talking about a Cybertruck 2 and throwing out shipping numbers he simply pulled from his arse. (I'll bet he is shorting the stock at the same time, thus the comments).

Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, even him, even you and even me. I just don't like seeing BS (mis)labeled as expert analysis.

 

[rep11661]

Hate to see you go, but I love to watch you leave!!!!

I hate to say it but I may be one of those sub 100k reservations that bails due to seats....

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

well, the notion that the LV line could do anything like 100/Wk or 10/day is waaaay off

Trucks are also stored and completed inside. And they’re not completed in some uniform fashion (eg they could have 15 units sitting for a week awaiting a final part).

outside, in the outbound lot, the numbers seen aren’t related to the internal build rate

regardless of how you got there, I wouldn’t have any bearing or reason to disagree with the HV line starting at 100/wk and quickly ramping

that said, I think it’s possible the battery constraint is more material than your comment suggests.

As posted by @PilotPete The LimitingFactor shared this morning an update on 4680 production at Giga Austin and it is his opinion that Tesla is no longer 4680 battery constrained for Cybertruck production. So I guess we will see how this pans out.

 

[cvalue13]

As posted by @PilotPete The LimitingFactor shared this morning an update on 4680 production at Giga Austin and it is his opinion that Tesla is no longer 4680 battery constrained for Cybertruck production. So I guess we will see how this pans out.

estimates range from 1000-1500 cells per CyberTruck

which means the 10M cells GTX has made since June 16 (when they announced the first 10M) would equip 10K to 6K cybertrucks (assuming zero going into Model Y)

so while I fully appreciate the point that they’re ramping, I’m not sure where someone concludes the CT is no longer battery constrained for purposes of eg 250K trucks/yr

PS to add: admittedly I haven’t seen @PilotPete’s post you reference

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