Production Rate Seems Insanely Slow?

[Gigahorse]

FS has basically NO value other then to get your truck first... if i had a choice between FS or non FS at the same time literally EVERYONE would choose non FS. i would be totally fine ordering and NOT being forced to buy stupid FSD when i dont want it.

FS = First Shipped
You pay to jump the reservation line, but not everyone gets the invite as there are state and location factors, along with if you are an influencer or not.

Sponsored

 

[cgladue]

yep pretty much sums it up, only not so sure that "not everyone" will get the offer... its a net cast pretty far and wide currently

 

[edc]

12/11 order socal Irvine with no vin. So yeah. pretty slow

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

@Jhodgesatmb

they started producing trucks for sale (including the delivery event vehicles) about 7 days before the deliver event, or 12 weeks ago yesterday

As of ~last week, they’d produced no more than ~2,000 trucks total in the proceeding 11 weeks

For this 12th week, if your guess of 500/wk is correct, it would seemingly assume a step change occurred

I did say ‘nearly’ didn’t I? Also, I said that if they were doing that every day it would be nearly 500/week but we know they aren’t doing that every day. Today in Joe’s video I counted almost 80 Cybertruck’s just during that video flyover and more were shown inside. 80 a day, if held, and if builds were going 6 days a week, would be 480/week, and t he at is what I was talking about. The actual rate could be much less.

 

[ideaXfactory]

Well the production rate has been increasing, no doubt about that. Still it goes only as fast as the slowest part of the process, whatever that may be.

 

[Gigahorse]

12/11 order socal Irvine with no vin. So yeah. pretty slow

Ouch 2 months is a while. I feel like the "order" process is turning into the new reservation process with no real concern for how long it takes.

 

[Sleipnir]

I did say ‘nearly’ didn’t I? Also, I said that if they were doing that every day it would be nearly 500/week but we know they aren’t doing that every day. Today in Joe’s video I counted almost 80 Cybertruck’s just during that video flyover and more were shown inside. 80 a day, if held, and if builds were going 6 days a week, would be 480/week, and t he at is what I was talking about. The actual rate could be much less.

Tough to discern anything from the drone videos other than there still seems to be a bottleneck with supply of the plastic bed rail trim as evidenced by the trucks parked out front missing the trim. This has been an ongoing issue for weeks. That said it definitely seems like more are being produced each week and that once a truck is finished it doesn’t hang around very long at the gigafactory.

 

[flowerlandfilms]

You'll never get it!
We'll see John Stewart returned to The Daily Show before anyone receives their...

Sorry what's that?

 

[jerhenderson]

that means there are more than 16,000 foundation series orders...that makes FS less valuable.

A vehicle that appreciates in value is very rare.

 

[theholyrice]

I did say ‘nearly’ didn’t I? Also, I said that if they were doing that every day it would be nearly 500/week but we know they aren’t doing that every day. Today in Joe’s video I counted almost 80 Cybertruck’s just during that video flyover and more were shown inside. 80 a day, if held, and if builds were going 6 days a week, would be 480/week, and t he at is what I was talking about. The actual rate could be much less.

could be just Tesla piling them up if delivery is not made daily. I still don't believe we're over 15 trucks per day since they only delivered so few.

 

[HaulingAss]

They might have meant it when they said it, but the folks at Tesla have no problem changing their minds. I wouldn't bet a dollar on that number.

Sigh, Tesla never said Foundation Edition was limited to 1000 units.

 

[scottyah]

Sigh, Tesla never said Foundation Edition was limited to 1000 units.

lol even less reason to trust it

 

[edc]

12/11 order- Got a vin yesterday! So they are ramping.. Someone else with a 12/11 order got a VIN in san diego and a delivery date 3 days later... not sure how that's possible but things are moving forward. I can't image a 1/11 order and how long they have to wait.

 

[Bartman]

This is how S curve ramps work. Generally look flat for the first bit, then things slowly accelerate, then they quickly accelerate, then it hyperscales before levelling off again.

Q1 was going to feel like a flattish line. Q2 will look a little bit better but not 5-10x. Q3/Q4 we should enter the part where the curve starts to kick up and by Q1/Q2 2025 production should be humming.

I also think they need to get GigaMexico up and running and it's more likely than not (despite the Tesla denials) that a refreshed Model Y is in testing and it wouldn't surprise me if there is a late 2024/early 2025 refresh coming on Model S/X to add the interior LED lighting and other niceties. Keep in mind the Palladium refresh on S/X was in Fall 2021 with the prior Raven light-refresh coming in 2019. If Rivian does indeed drop a 1,200 HP quad-Enduro R1 in April or August (two line refreshes scheduled for 2024) then I'd expect Tesla to roll out the next-gen S/X before year-end.

Oh, and let's not forget the Model 3 Performance that has not yet launched.

It's busy days at Tesla, and that doesn't even include the impending Model 2 or whatever you want to call the cheapo Tesla.

Very true. There is so much going on. Wonder how far down working on implementing FSD on Cybertruck is on the priority list?

 

[carsly]

Very true. There is so much going on. Wonder how far down working on implementing FSD on Cybertruck is on the priority list?

I think it’s a data availability question.

My guess is Tesla can’t even start to fine tune the neural net FSD for Cybertruck dimensions and 4WS until there are least 10-20k vehicles on road generating data. Then probably 2-4 quarters to get a beta out.

So we if we don’t have 10k CT’s on road until Q3/Q4 2024 then I’m thinking the goal for FSD would be year end 2025. For later buyers, of which there should be 10x than this original data generation cohort, that implies a wait of no more than 2 quarters post-delivery. Not terrible.

This is just my idle mind at work. I have no Tesla contacts or connections so take it for what it’s worth, a logic exercise.

Sponsored