Conversion Rate through December 2026 and first 550,000 units -- what's your guesstimate?

[Jhodgesatmb]

I initially went with 70% because that is what I thought all along, but then I factually read the assumptions. Even though the pollster raised prices a bit what I think will bite is the $2,500 commitment within a few days when delivery is out half a year or more. So I dropped my guess to 60%..

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[Lag7yank]

I’m in the first 100,000. I expect mine 1st quarter 2024. Too optimistic???

 

[LDRHAWKE]

I think a lot depends on what is clarified in an Updated Reveal, along with other life and economic factors. It's been a long time since the original reveal, and much has changed. Reservation holder financial situations have obviously changed since 2019, and many likely will not have the same buying power today as they did in 2020, or shortly after when they were expecting the Cybertruck to be available.

Of course Tesla has not sat on it's laurels during these delays, but instead has continued changing and refining the CT design. Yet the realities of a more expensive price and the reduced buying power of consumers will be a factor.

Also about half U.S. states have Vehicle Property Taxes, with Virginia and Mississippi being the highest in the nation at 3.96% and 3.50% which is about six times the rate charged in California. If we use your estimated Tri-Motor price, purchasing a Cybertruck for $79,420 in Virginia would incur $3145.03 Vehicle Property Taxes in the first year alone, in addition to the 4.15% Sales Tax at purchase which would be $3295.93. Add to this the continual Vehicle Property Tax charged each year and even with standard depreciation Virginia would collect over $10,500 in property taxes on a Cybertruck for the first five years, and that is on top of the initial Sales Tax of $3295. But that's kind of standard for many states so I'm not dwelling as much on that. The oppressively high Vehicle Property Taxes in Virginia certainly cancel out any benefits of a federal Tax Credit and then some! These taxes also cancel out much potential savings that would be realized in reduced costs of ownership.

Buyers in some states must consider these factors, and with some states aiming to increase taxes even more, it would not be any surprise if buyers thought hard and then possibly canceled their CT reservation in states taxing high. Prior to 2019 these taxes were already bad enough, but when they are considered together with significantly reduced buying power as well, some people are just going to be unable pull the trigger on a purchase because in those states the government is simply taking way too much. It makes no sense to receive a Federal Tax Credit if you're just going to give all of it and more back to your state government!

Here is a site with Vehicle Property Tax information (click Vehicle Property Tax Ranking in the Table of Contents):
https://wallethub.com/edu/states-with-the-highest-and-lowest-property-taxes/11585

I noted the highest Vehicle Property tax state of Virginia as an example, and with the exception of Mississippi and a few others, many states have a much more reasonable tax rate that likely won't deter buyers as much.

Of course these taxes may not be a huge factor for overall conversion to (purchase) rates because of likely a smaller fraction of CT reservations being from buyers in these highest taxed states. But I thought it'd be a good time to point them out. But, the general buying power factors are affecting most everybody, and except for those who are crazy rich and not affected as much, many people are going to have a careful decision to make.

Prices will likely be up, buying power will be relatively down, but the CT quality and innovation will be likely superb, so everyone's going to have to re-evaluate and balance for themselves.

Because of these concerns, I'm leaning between 60% and 70%, but even in ideal better economic and tax situations my estimate would probably be 80%, which I think would be pretty good considering the CT's new design and departure from what people are accustomed to.

- ÆCIII

Now I remember why I live in Florida.

 

[swengl]

I’m in the first 100,000. I expect mine 1st quarter 2024. Too optimistic???

It really depends on how fast they are producing/delivering the CTs and the number of folks in the front of the reservation line that complete their reservation with a purchase. I am hoping for the same timeframe and I think it will be possible, if they don't run into any major issues with the supply chain or getting the CT production lines running efficiently.

I know this will shock some, but I'm hoping all of the folks in front of me all convert their reservation into a purchase. Being a sub-100K CT reservation holder (and owning a sub-75k production model Model S), I want Tesla to work out the manufacturing kinks early enough that I'm not in the front of the line. Also, as a shareholder, I (selfishly) want to see Tesla fulfill every reservation in an effort to continue building the bottom line (and also proving the neasayers completely wrong) With the model S, I was fortunate in that my dual motor 85D did not have motor / battery issues that were more prominent at the time. Tesla has definitely improved both the manufacturing process and the quality of what they produce as they practice "continual improvement" across all model lines and I firmly believe they will continue to do so with the Cybertruck. It is difficult to temper my eagerness to get my hands on an early(ish) production model of the CT with my more calculated mentality of wanting a solid reliable product. I know Tesla has really improved their processes and products in the last 8 years (case in point, we own an Austin made Model Y and we absolutely love it), I hope they get past any major improvements by the time they get to building my CT. There are new production challenges that Tesla faces with the Cybertruck, I am optimistic that they will resolve them quickly.

 

[Lag7yank]

We’ll said. I’m an S owner too and love it. It’s my second one too. Want all the bugs out before I get mine and also want that stock to jump as well.

 

[Rockvillerich]

For me I am around 600k in line so I am confident I will would get my CT in 2026 with even a modest amount of dropouts. It really depends on how badly I need a truck after that expected receipt date. I have gotten by without one for 3 years while waiting and my trailer and Toyota Sienna does fine most of the time. I love my leased model 3 and will probably pick up something similar when my lease comes due in 2026. I can't see myself doing my longish commute in my CT but if they come up with some solar charging I wouldn't feel too bad about it. IDK. $60k is still a lot of money, but I can afford it. The economics of truck ownership for someone that only needs a truck 6 days a month is pretty bad.

If I need a truck I would probably want to tow distances. This will be hardish with current tech. I would consider a super hybrid from another manufacturer as long as the BEV only range was at least 100 miles, but this doesn't appear to be an option in the next 3 years.

My vote was 60% conversion rate during this period. I don't expect to have to make a decision until late 2025.

At 22K in line I'm expecting to configure by April or May of 2024 if numbers are anywhere near correct, and if the tri-motor CT is under 80K it will be a no brainer buy for me.

 

[Tinker71]

I initially went with 70% because that is what I thought all along, but then I factually read the assumptions. Even though the pollster raised prices a bit what I think will bite is the $2,500 commitment within a few days when delivery is out half a year or more. So I dropped my guess to 60%..

Thanks bro for respecting the poll assumptions. Was $2500 commitment typical for prior releases? Anyone?

 

[Tinker71]

I will correct myself. The entry dual motor with 279 range is $48k. It will probably fall more. So maybe Tesla can hold the dual motor CT to $55k.

Ugh. We also need to understand that the battery size of the ct2 is nearly twice the size of a Y with the same range. In a battery constrained environment Tesla would be foolish to price the CT low enough to undercut the sale/profitablity and manufacturing capacity of an established model. I have no clue how Tesla will price the CT.

 

[Tinker71]

I’m in the first 100,000. I expect mine 1st quarter 2024. Too optimistic???

I think so. Maybe q3

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Thanks bro for respecting the poll assumptions. Was $2500 commitment typical for prior releases? Anyone?

That is what I had to put down for my Model Y.

 

[rudedawg78]

I used the "scientific method" to determine my answer for this poll:

 

[intimidator]

OK folks concentrate. The validity of this poll requires some assumptions. You might not like them, but live with them. You can tell me I am full of it in your comments.

1.) The price of the tri motor is $79,420, The price of the dual motor is $59,420. The single motor is not available until 2027
2.) 4ws is standard, the tailgate is not as fancy, the middle front seat is an extra $1500 option otherwise the range and performance is similar to the 2019 specifications.
3.) When your reservation comes up you will get an email from Tesla and you can purchase either the dual or tri but you have one week to finalize your decision and put down $2500 non refundable deposit before they move to the next batch of reservation numbers. Tesla will only contact the next batch when they think they can deliver the vehicle in 6 months from order.
4.) Tesla will make 150k units in late 2023 through 2024 and 250k units in 2025 and 2026. So this pole only covers the first 550,000 units.
5.) While you may want to look at this from your position try to think about the average reservation holder position. Will that person have the money, will they choose another EV pick up , are they disenfranchised by Elon's antics, is the towing range performance a no go so they stick with ICE or ICE/hybrid, or did they just change their mind. I think the conversion rate will be higher for the first 50,000 units but again, think about the range of the poll.

4.) Tesla will make 150k units in late 2023 through 2024 and 250k units in 2025 and 2026. So this pole only covers the first 550,000 units.

I agree with your assessment that between fall of 2023 --> end of 2024 there will be about 150,000 Cybertrucks built.

I am a November 2019 reservation holder, but expect to take delivery in 2025 (yes please) depending on how Tesla factors in geography into delivery priorities.

 

[Tinker71]

4.) Tesla will make 150k units in late 2023 through 2024 and 250k units in 2025 and 2026. So this pole only covers the first 550,000 units.

I agree with your assessment that between fall of 2023 --> end of 2024 there will be about 150,000 Cybertrucks built.

I am a November 2019 reservation holder, but expect to take delivery in 2025 (yes please) depending on how Tesla factors in geography into delivery priorities.

Yeah someone pointed out my 100000 unit math error. It wasn't obvious to edit. Not too consequential all and all.

I wonder If people pass on their early reservation will they will get bumped to the next call group or bounced off the list.?

 

[intimidator]

I’m in the first 100,000. I expect mine 1st quarter 2024. Too optimistic???

Yes. Sadly.

 

[intimidator]

OK folks concentrate. The validity of this poll requires some assumptions. You might not like them, but live with them. You can tell me I am full of it in your comments.

1.) The price of the tri motor is $79,420, The price of the dual motor is $59,420. The single motor is not available until 2027
2.) 4ws is standard, the tailgate is not as fancy, the middle front seat is an extra $1500 option otherwise the range and performance is similar to the 2019 specifications.
3.) When your reservation comes up you will get an email from Tesla and you can purchase either the dual or tri but you have one week to finalize your decision and put down $2500 non refundable deposit before they move to the next batch of reservation numbers. Tesla will only contact the next batch when they think they can deliver the vehicle in 6 months from order.
4.) Tesla will make 150k units in late 2023 through 2024 and 250k units in 2025 and 2026. So this pole only covers the first 550,000 units.
5.) While you may want to look at this from your position try to think about the average reservation holder position. Will that person have the money, will they choose another EV pick up , are they disenfranchised by Elon's antics, is the towing range performance a no go so they stick with ICE or ICE/hybrid, or did they just change their mind. I think the conversion rate will be higher for the first 50,000 units but again, think about the range of the poll.

Initial pricing.

What was the initial price on the first roadster?
What was the initial price on the S?

I think, just my opinion, it will take awhile for Tesla to streamline the manufacturing process on the Cybertruck, thus the initial price is bound to be higher than it might be after they smooth out all the rough edges. A new factory. A new model. New gigapresses. New stainless steel construction. Assuming Tesla will sell the Cybertruck with a positive profit margin for the jump, how can the price be as low as Model Y? Why not more like a Model S?

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