Cybertruck Predictions - Battery Size & Range!

[Arctic_White]

My prediction is that for initial models, it'll be either a dual motor or a tri-motor with a 140 KWh battery size resulting in 350 miles range. Cost: No less than $50K and no more than $69,420.

500+ mile range trim/model will eventually come and it is likely to have a 200 KWh battery. Cost: Less than $80,000

Basically, the Cybertruck will undercut the Ford Lightning and the Rivian R1T by 10% to 20%, and Tesla will have an insane gross margin while they are at it.

Prices will be dynamic: Tesla will adjust pricing (upwards or downwards) to ensure that supply = demand.

Thoughts?

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[charliemagpie]

My prediction is that for initial models, it'll be either a dual motor or a tri-motor with a 140 KWh battery size resulting in 350 miles range. Cost: No less than $50K and no more than $69,420.

500+ mile range trim/model will eventually come and it is likely to have a 200 KWh battery. Cost: Less than $80,000

Basically, the Cybertruck will undercut the Ford Lightning and the Rivian R1T by 10% to 20%, and Tesla will have an insane gross margin while they are at it.

Prices will be dynamic: Tesla will adjust pricing (upwards or downwards) to ensure that supply = demand.

Thoughts?

I'm with you one this one. Splitting hairs on some pricing.

I believe Tesla will make a profit at lower prices whereas legacy relies on a lot of profits selling parts. This it turns out is legacy's Achilles heel.

Legacy does not have a scaling issue. They are not experienced at making enough profits to run their business selling new cars only.

Tesla knows how to make profit.. and it is getting better faster stronger.

Cybertruck pricing will cut legacy off at the knees.

 

[Ogre]

I think a giant pile of this depends on what the state of the 4680 ramp is like when it’s launched so it’s almost impossible to know what truck is first and by extension what range and pricing will be.

If truck production outpaces battery production, a lower capacity truck is more likely. Look what they did with the original 4680 Model Ys. I don’t think that was a game plan 2 years ago, I‘m pretty sure the 279 mile range is a product of the shorter range, slower production from the 4680 line. Likewise the slower ramp of the 4680 Model Y.

This is doubly true, if they can’t get the battery density up.

I think your top end is on the high side. A 40% price increase on the dual motor is way beyond what Tesla has done on any other model.

 

[slomo]

I think Tesla just doesn't sell the largest pack variants for a year or two.

Tesla's likely quandary is whether to place the 300 miles quad above or below the $80K tax limit. There are good arguments for either direction.

I don't think Tesla will vary the price in the first six to nine months unless the economy changes dramatically. Tesla needs to hold the price variable to better judge the market.

After that period I expect the price to move regularly.

 

[Bill906]

I've said this before. Tesla's price just seems like it varies more than other car manufacturers. If you buy a Jeep Grand Cherokee this month, it's going to be a different price than it was 2 months ago. With factory deals, dealer sales etc. All we know for sure with other car manufactures is the Manufacturers SUGGESTED retail price. You don't know the ACTUAL price until you sign the paper. Even then it's often hidden behind fees, dealer add-ons, etc. Comparing other manufactures MSRP with Tesla's actual price will make is seem like Tesla's price varies a lot.

 

[ED_SFO]

This my crazy prediction from another thread is this... the CT will have an efficiency of 400 wh/mi.

In this scenario a single motor will have 100 kw pack just like in the master plan 3 image.

This will net about 250 mi range. Like they originally planned.

Dual motor will have a 150 kw pack. The main 100kw pack is standard throughout the lineup and is where driver and passenger seats are bolted to just like in the model Y in Texas. My prediction is that Tesla will have smaller 50 kw pack that can be added under the main pack to add range where needed. So instead of making 3 different packs...they just need to make two battery modules one 100kw and one 50kw. This will net about 325-350 miles of range. Less efficient maybe around 425 wh/mi

Tri / Quad will have 200kw pack. One 100kw pack and two 50 kw packs under main pack. This will net their claimed up to 500 miles. With their motor decouplers tech to run more efficiently like in semi.

If they do go this route. It would be very easy to spec out a dual motor at 150kw and have the option for more range by adding another 50kw battery module.

But i also think just building 3 packs at 100, 150, 200 kw packs could also work.

 

[Sirfun]

I've said this before. Tesla's price just seems like it varies more than other car manufacturers. If you buy a Jeep Grand Cherokee this month, it's going to be a different price than it was 2 months ago. With factory deals, dealer sales etc. All we know for sure with other car manufactures is the Manufacturers SUGGESTED retail price. You don't know the ACTUAL price until you sign the paper. Even then it's often hidden behind fees, dealer add-ons, etc. Comparing other manufactures MSRP with Tesla's actual price will make is seem like Tesla's price varies a lot.

Good points. Tesla puts the price out there for everyone to see. There really isn't any way to know what average price people are paying for vehicles with most other manufacturers.
Tesla price cuts were making huge news, while it would be obvious to think that people are going into dealers and finding lower prices on vehicles this week, compared to a couple of months ago. BTW, May is usually a good month for deals on new cars. There's massive price cuts going on in China with ICE vehicles lately. But that's not part of the news cycle.
The funny way to look at price cuts is that USUALLY prices of new vehicles go down, when they are trying to get rid of existing inventory. Or to react to lack of demand. But when Tesla adjusts prices it seems to be, so they can meet the increased capacity to build more vehicles. With Giga Texas and Berlin increasing the capacity, Tesla has to dangle some carrots to keep up with that increase in supply. It does seem like S & X are being decreased in price because of a lack of demand to a certain degree though. Part of that is because they don't qualify for tax incentives, while it can also have something to do with their design is almost 10 years old.

 

[Crissa]

I think a giant pile of this depends on what the state of the 4680 ramp is like when it’s launched so it’s almost impossible to know what truck is first and by extension what range and pricing will be.

If truck production outpaces battery production, a lower capacity truck is more likely. Look what they did with the original 4680 Model Ys. I don’t think that was a game plan 2 years ago, I‘m pretty sure the 279 mile range is a product of the shorter range, slower production from the 4680 line. Likewise the slower ramp of the 4680 Model Y.

This is doubly true, if they can’t get the battery density up.

I think your top end is on the high side. A 40% price increase on the dual motor is way beyond what Tesla has done on any other model.

Tesla finally put the 4680 Model Y on the configurator this month.

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

Tesla finally put the 4680 Model Y on the configurator this month.

-Crissa

Yep. Very good sign there. Means they are comfortable delivering 1000+ per week.

 

[jlatino]

My prediction is that for initial models, it'll be either a dual motor or a tri-motor with a 140 KWh battery size resulting in 350 miles range. Cost: No less than $50K and no more than $69,420.

500+ mile range trim/model will eventually come and it is likely to have a 200 KWh battery. Cost: Less than $80,000

Basically, the Cybertruck will undercut the Ford Lightning and the Rivian R1T by 10% to 20%, and Tesla will have an insane gross margin while they are at it.

Prices will be dynamic: Tesla will adjust pricing (upwards or downwards) to ensure that supply = demand.

Thoughts?

Sidebar topic but related; how long does it take to charge a battery? I see Teslas sitting at charging stations where I fill up with fuel and take off. Thanks

 

[slomo]

Sidebar topic but related; how long does it take to charge a battery? I see Teslas sitting at charging stations where I fill up with fuel and take off. Thanks

Time per year much less than gas, unless you have installed a fuel tank at home.

When the need for DCFC charging happens average time is perhaps 20-30 minutes. With a bit of planning you typically are just not sitting and waiting for the charge. Perhaps you shop, or pee, or answer emails. (no peeing in the truck unless Elon has added an unexpected urinal)

 

[cvalue13]

I see Teslas sitting at charging stations where I fill up with fuel and take off. Thanks

You’re largely seeing people who don’t have charging at “home” (apartments, rentals, etc.), or who have long commutes/are on a road trip.

Who you don’t see are folks like me: I haven’t been to a gas/charging station in 8 months (since my last material road trip). My truck fills up at home now and then, with only about 3 seconds of time to plug in.

 

[CyberGus]

Sidebar topic but related; how long does it take to charge a battery? I see Teslas sitting at charging stations where I fill up with fuel and take off. Thanks

For extended trips, Supercharging takes about 20 minutes per 2-3 hours of driving.

Most charging is done at home, when you're not waiting (i.e. overnight).

 

[israndy]

Tri / Quad will have 200kw pack. One 100kw pack and two 50 kw packs under main pack.

But i also think just building 3 packs at 100, 150, 200 kw packs could also work.

Why two 50kWs when they could just double the 100kW pack?

Also, how does this relate to how the CTs are gonna charge at the current 400V Superchargers? If they have two packs they combine as either Plaid pack 450V (parallel) or 900V (series), so that works for the bottom (2x50kWh) and top (4x50kWh) tier, but if the mid-tier is 150kWhs made up of 3 packs that doesn't work, so they would need their own split pack size.

 

[Wendell Quillen]

I'm with you one this one. Splitting hairs on some pricing.

I believe Tesla will make a profit at lower prices whereas legacy relies on a lot of profits selling parts. This it turns out is legacy's Achilles heel.

Legacy does not have a scaling issue. They are not experienced at making enough profits to run their business selling new cars only.

Tesla knows how to make profit.. and it is getting better faster stronger.

Cybertruck pricing will cut legacy off at the knees.
[/QUOTE

My prediction is that for initial models, it'll be either a dual motor or a tri-motor with a 140 KWh battery size resulting in 350 miles range. Cost: No less than $50K and no more than $69,420.

500+ mile range trim/model will eventually come and it is likely to have a 200 KWh battery. Cost: Less than $80,000

Basically, the Cybertruck will undercut the Ford Lightning and the Rivian R1T by 10% to 20%, and Tesla will have an insane gross margin while they are at it.

Prices will be dynamic: Tesla will adjust pricing (upwards or downwards) to ensure that supply = demand.

Thoughts?

I sure hope you’re correct! After waiting as long as we all have, based on the original prediction, it was already tipping my budget. No more than 5k more, I understand, but
some of the horror stories I’ve read, like 70k + it’d be game over for me.
I’m an old guy, just got my home paid off along with a few bills but dang! taking on another payment for 70 grand would be insult to injury in my case, especially after waiting so long for this thing! I’ve been driving a 2013 Titan truck around for years, milking it for all its worth, only hoping the CT will be available before my demise on this old rock. I hope Elon has mercy on the early folks that had their expectations set so high at the beginning!
Sorry for my rant but just wanted to see if anyone else out there feels the sting like I.

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