Cybertruck Range Prediction + Cell Calculation + More [Sources]

[cvalue13]

My only point is that there's no requirement for the display of battery percentage to be accurate, just like I can drive another 20 miles after the fuel gauge pegs below "E".

oh yes, never forget:

Tesla claims EPA range can be achieved on its electric cars by draining battery beyond zero-mile range

In response to an independent range test, Tesla has reportedly claimed that the EPA range on its vehicles can be achieved by draining the battery pack beyond the zero-mile displayed range.

Last month, we reported on Edmunds conducting independent range tests on a bunch of electric vehiclesto compare them to their EPA estimates.

The results showed that Tesla is using the most optimistic versions of its EPA estimated range in its advertising compared to other automakers.

Now Edmunds is out with a follow-up report in which they claim that Tesla reached out to them following their test to state that they should have accounted for the “buffer” that comes after the displayed range reaches zero miles:

Needless to say, Tesla was not happy with our test results, and we received a phone call. Tesla’s engineers disputed our figures. They argued that we’d underestimated their cars’ true range because our test ran to an indicated zero miles rather than to a stop.
Tesla argued that even when the indicated range hits zero, there’s still a safety buffer. The engineers reckoned that if you add this buffer, the distance measured to when the battery is spent, their cars would match the EPA results.

It’s surprising that Tesla would claim that since it’s not how people use their electric vehicles.

Edmunds put Tesla’s claim to the test and tested three Tesla vehicles, as well as two vehicles from other manufacturers, to see how many miles they would get after the displayed range hits zero.

Here are the results:

That test was at 65 mph, but they also performed the test with a cycle closer to the EPA test cycle:

Edmunds says that Tesla engineers told them that “the buffer cannot be defined exactly to a number every time — it will change based on external conditions, driving profile, etc.”

When adding those buffer results, only two of Tesla’s vehicles actually hit their EPA estimated range.

They concluded:

Our answer to Tesla’s dismay with our initial results is that, yes, two of the automaker’s vehicles can match the EPA’s range estimates in the Edmunds EV range test. But that’s only under specific circumstances and by driving each vehicle past zero indicated miles of range.

However, they also admit that range tests can be affected by many outside factors.

Electrek’s Take
Like I stated in my original article on the Edmunds test, no range test is perfect, but I think the comparison in the report is what most people would experience and what I’ve experienced myself, having driven almost all the vehicles on the list.

I’m surprised by Tesla’s response to the test and I think it’s kind of weird.

Sponsored

 

[CyberGus]

oh yes, never forget:

Tesla claims EPA range can be achieved on its electric cars by draining battery beyond zero-mile range

My first experience with a Tesla was a M3P Turbo rental.

First day, I was going to an appointment some distance away, and the in-car nav showed I would have enough capacity to get there, but not get back. Since I was running late, I saw there was a Supercharger nearby the destination, and figured I could charge afterwards.

Sure enough, I arrived with 20 miles of range, and only with 12 miles to the SC. However, the appointment was long, and a cold front came though in the interim. When I went to leave, the BMS now showed only 10 miles of range. "No problem, I'll just drive slow".

Shockingly, the range eroded in perfect synchrony with distance, so that I hit 0 range when still 2 miles away. Would I need a tow? A long extension cord? A thousand AA batteries???

Fortunately, Tesla accounted for idiots like me, and the crisis was averted. Lesson learned.

 

[GhostAndSkater]

When we talk about "Cybertruck Range Prediction" tho that is based on usable energy.

Yes, but you can't say a cell has less energy because you only want to talk about nominal energy

Current 4680s have 86.5 Wh of capacity, period

 

[Greshnab]

Yes, but you can't say a cell has less energy because you only want to talk about nominal energy

Current 4680s have 86.5 Wh of capacity, period

hmm i was under the impression 4680 was a specification for size and voltage.. not for what delivered... so inside can be anything at all as long as it delivers the specified voltage and it has the right end caps and size.. it is a 4680.. am i wrong???

cause if so saying how much stored energy is in a 4680 is deceptive at best and down right silly in rl... a 4680 that has been cycled non stop since the form factor was made has FAR less energy than a brand new one with the same base design...

a 4680 shouldn't HAVE to be lithium ion.. it can be anything chemically as long as it is the right size and voltage.. or am i wrong here?

 

[Ogre]

Just saw this nice comparison table.
NOTE: that the Pan.2170 has higher Energy Density than the Gen2 4680 Cybercell.

19:47 into this from above text:

This may be a big part of why no 500 mile at launch.

Tesla is still making baby steps as a battery company.

 

[Ogre]

hmm i was under the impression 4680 was a specification for size and voltage.. not for what delivered... so inside can be anything at all as long as it delivers the specified voltage and it has the right end caps and size.. it is a 4680.. am i wrong???

cause if so saying how much stored energy is in a 4680 is deceptive at best and down right silly in rl... a 4680 that has been cycled non stop since the form factor was made has FAR less energy than a brand new one with the same base design...

a 4680 shouldn't HAVE to be lithium ion.. it can be anything chemically as long as it is the right size and voltage.. or am i wrong here?

Well he said “Current 4680s”, sure in the future you can have any sort of thing in the 4680 package. It’s sort of akin to “AA Cell batteries”

 

[Crissa]

My first experience with a Tesla was a M3P Turbo rental.

First day, I was going to an appointment some distance away, and the in-car nav showed I would have enough capacity to get there, but not get back. Since I was running late, I saw there was a Supercharger nearby the destination, and figured I could charge afterwards.

Sure enough, I arrived with 20 miles of range, and only with 12 miles to the SC. However, the appointment was long, and a cold front came though in the interim. When I went to leave, the BMS now showed only 10 miles of range. "No problem, I'll just drive slow".

Shockingly, the range eroded in perfect synchrony with distance, so that I hit 0 range when still 2 miles away. Would I need a tow? A long extension cord? A thousand AA batteries???

Fortunately, Tesla accounted for idiots like me, and the crisis was averted. Lesson learned.

Last Friday, I encountered a similar situation while on my Zero. I was heading home after going across the county on the freeway, so I'd eaten a fair bit of my range.

But coming down a steep grade I came across a hawk trying to limp out of heavy traffic, so I spun around to pick it up. (I also dropped my bike when I parked it to get the bird! Eep!)

One run *back* across the county to the native animal rescue and I got back home by hugging the tank and hypermiling the whole way... But there's nothing you can do about going up a hill and I was on zero percent the last two miles. I hopped off at the mailbox so it wouldn't have to carry me up the last, steepest slope, and let it carry its own weight up the 15% grade to the parking spot x-x

You calculate 0% to show when there's still a fraction of energy left so that it doesn't surprise you when it still shows a percent left - because guessing battery capacity is just that, a guess. The computer can make an educated guess, from voltage sag and historical mapping and then some harder borders from the original programming. But each pack is, on the microscopic level, unique, as are the trips we put it on and the age it acquires.

-Crissa

 

[TyPope]

IRT a double-stacked battery pack, is there a reason one of the layers can't be laid over on their sides?

bottom row longer to go under the tonneau cover roll
_______
||||||||||||||||||||||||
or
|||||||||||||||||
-----------------

You know, being at work, I'm glad I can pump the brakes for a minute and get on here during breaks to see what's up but then I would rather be at home than here (see how I used brakes, breaks, then, and than correctly. LOL). However, I'd really love to be able to draw with something better than MS Paint 3D or text like above!

 

[CyberGus]

Last Friday, I encountered a similar situation while on my Zero. I was heading home after going across the county on the freeway, so I'd eaten a fair bit of my range.

But coming down a steep grade I came across a hawk trying to limp out of heavy traffic, so I spun around to pick it up. (I also dropped my bike when I parked it to get the bird! Eep!)

One run *back* across the county to the native animal rescue and I got back home by hugging the tank and hypermiling the whole way... But there's nothing you can do about going up a hill and I was on zero percent the last two miles. I hopped off at the mailbox so it wouldn't have to carry me up the last, steepest slope, and let it carry its own weight up the 15% grade to the parking spot x-x

You calculate 0% to show when there's still a fraction of energy left so that it doesn't surprise you when it still shows a percent left - because guessing battery capacity is just that, a guess. The computer can make an educated guess, from voltage sag and historical mapping and then some harder borders from the original programming. But each pack is, on the microscopic level, unique, as are the trips we put it on and the age it acquires.

-Crissa

Thank you for saving the bird. You're lucky to still have both your eyes lol

 

[Crissa]

Thank you for saving the bird. You're lucky to still have both your eyes lol

I wear full moto gear and trivex glasses, so... I just showed it the carbon fiber knuckles on my gloves and it stopped threatening to bite me.

-Crissa

 

[scottf200]

I wear full moto gear and trivex glasses, so... I just showed it the carbon fiber knuckles on my gloves and it stopped threatening to bite me. -Crissa

Way to go. Thanks for the trivex hint. I had no idea about it. I have strong reasons to wanting good glasses.

 

[MonkeyDeLuffy]

IRT a double-stacked battery pack, is there a reason one of the layers can't be laid over on their sides?

bottom row longer to go under the tonneau cover roll
_______
||||||||||||||||||||||||
or
|||||||||||||||||
-----------------

You know, being at work, I'm glad I can pump the brakes for a minute and get on here during breaks to see what's up but then I would rather be at home than here (see how I used brakes, breaks, then, and than correctly. LOL). However, I'd really love to be able to draw with something better than MS Paint 3D or text like above!

That is why spy shots of battery packs will be more thrilling than anything we have seen so far. Especially, when you think about how to arrange the placement of the battery in Tri motor setup while optimizing efficiency and safety.

 

[JBee]

IRT a double-stacked battery pack, is there a reason one of the layers can't be laid over on their sides?

bottom row longer to go under the tonneau cover roll
_______
||||||||||||||||||||||||
or
|||||||||||||||||
-----------------

You know, being at work, I'm glad I can pump the brakes for a minute and get on here during breaks to see what's up but then I would rather be at home than here (see how I used brakes, breaks, then, and than correctly. LOL). However, I'd really love to be able to draw with something better than MS Paint 3D or text like above!

The cell orientation is critical for how it is used in a structural pack. Having the cells laying down means the cell wall tubes have little benefit in comparison, as use as webbing in a structural sandwich. Similarly having two layers is also not optimal either. There is enough room in one layer for around 160-170kWh onyway, and I expect the increase in cell performance to make the 500mile model possible with one stack sometime in the future.

BTW if you want something to draw with you can use OnShape or Fusion360 for free. Onshape just opens in a browser, so ideal if you want to be productive at work ...in your breaks.

 

[TyPope]

The cell orientation is critical for how it is used in a structural pack. Having the cells laying down means the cell wall tubes have little benefit in comparison, as use as webbing in a structural sandwich. Similarly having two layers is also not optimal either. There is enough room in one layer for around 160-170kWh onyway, and I expect the increase in cell performance to make the 500mile model possible with one stack sometime in the future.

BTW if you want something to draw with you can use OnShape or Fusion360 for free. Onshape just opens in a browser, so ideal if you want to be productive at work ...in your breaks.

I use Fusion 360 with my 3D printer. Work computers are locked down... no unapproved software here.

 

[samroy92]

TLDR Edit 2 (7/20/23):
It seems that 100-110Wh per gen2 cell is fairly realistic considering the recent comments on earnings call saying that their latest 4680 cells are 10% increase in energy density.

1450 Cells * 110 Wh = 159,500 Wh, in other words ~159kWh. If we assume 400 Wh/mi of driving efficiency this would give us an estimated EPA range of 397miles.

If Cell capacity is only 100 Wh for Gen1 CT the same calculations would yield: 362 miles of range. Not including range buffers.

Well this is the end of this thread, in the end Tesla went with 1366 Cells for a total pack energy of 123,000 Wh. This results in almost exactly 90 Wh per cell. Working backwards w/ the 10% density improvements this put the Gen1 Model Y 4680 cell I would have expected a minimum of 95 Wh per cell but alas we are not this lucky.

There will be more generations of cells -it is only up from here!

Sponsored