Elon: Cybertruck will have Autopilot HW4. Production still coming in Summer. Beta Cybertrucks coming next month. CT will be Musk's personal vehicle

[Ogre]

Hmm, I'm under 4k in line, I guess there's a chance I'll be picking up my truck this time next year....

The 3-4 digit reservation holders still have a solid chance this year!

The bad news is the first one on CTOC with a truck has to tour the country and give free rides. It’s in the privacy policy you agreed to when you signed up for the site.

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[Ogre]

They'll find out only slightly before we do if the result is crushing disappointment or revolutionary optimization.

While you are correct broadly, outcomes will be more bell-curve like. Crushing disappointment is an outlier.

 

[fritter63]

I could see someone with an RN in the 40,000 range getting the 20,000th truck off the line.

That would be me then. And not sure it's a good thing.

Our Model 3 is vin 32xxx, there are early build issues. Hoping they do better on CT.

 

[Bill906]

The 3-4 digit reservation holders still have a solid chance this year!

Damn it, the one time a 6 figure number is a bad thing.

 

[savagecabbage]

Serious Question, no troll. Does anyone think that the reservation number really means that much? I mean I am number 270 in the the tracker (before the BS with the quad motor fake entries, now it says 600). I personally do not think it means that much. I believe Tesla will reach out to local reservation around Austin first (I am in Fremont), which could be the first 1000 or so vehicles. I would imagine after that a lot of back door handshakes and employee vehicles (maybe a couple of thousand more). Then who knows how they will adhere to reservation numbers... it could be some sort of loose relationship with reservation but not likely it will be anywhere close to sequential IMO.

 

[Ogre]

Damn it, the one time a 6 figure number is a bad thing.

Well if @Dids cancellation thoughts are correct, it would make a much bigger difference for you than me. It would move me a few weeks forward. A 60% cancellation rate would move your delivery months forward. With the @Dids correction plus subtracting out international orders, 250k suddenly becomes 75,000.

 

[fritter63]

Serious Question, no troll. Does anyone think that the reservation number really means that much? I mean I am number 270 in the the tracker (before the BS with the quad motor fake entries, now it says 600). I personally do not think it means that much. I believe Tesla will reach out to local reservation around Austin first (I am in Fremont), which could be the first 1000 or so vehicles. I would imagine after that a lot of back door handshakes and employee vehicles (maybe a couple of thousand more). Then who knows how they will adhere to reservation numbers... it could be some sort of loose relationship with reservation but not likely it will be anywhere close to sequential IMO.

You may be correct. Repeating myself here I know, but here's how it went down with the Model 3.

I was 200K in line.

• 2017 - early 2018, people notified by reservation number
• Late June 2018 - mass email telling everyone they could configure and place order (I could be wrong about the scope of the email)
• We ordered within 45 minutes of that email, given delivery date in October
• Two weeks later (July) they called and asked if we could take delivery at the end of the week (annoying since I hadn't arranged the loan yet, and was in Boston on a business trip). Note that we are 3 hours from Fremont, that could been a factor.
• We got a vin # 32xxx

So, at first they honored the reservations, then just made it a free for all.

 

[kylechoffman]

The 3-4 digit reservation holders still have a solid chance this year!

The bad news is the first one on CTOC with a truck has to tour the country and give free rides. It’s in the privacy policy you agreed to when you signed up for the site.

I am number 117..

 

[Ogre]

Serious Question, no troll. Does anyone think that the reservation number really means that much? I mean I am number 270 in the the tracker (before the BS with the quad motor fake entries, now it says 600). I personally do not think it means that much. I believe Tesla will reach out to local reservation around Austin first (I am in Fremont), which could be the first 1000 or so vehicles. I would imagine after that a lot of back door handshakes and employee vehicles (maybe a couple of thousand more). Then who knows how they will adhere to reservation numbers... it could be some sort of loose relationship with reservation but not likely it will be anywhere close to sequential IMO.

Tesla has historically delivered local first (but not a huge % of the total I don’t think). Then lumped deliveries geographically based on reservation order.

So while there is a bit of geographic lottery going on, it’s roughly been reservation order.

If your number is less than 1000, I’d plan on taking delivery of the truck by year end unless maybe you live in Wyoming or Rhode Island.

 

[kylechoffman]

You may be correct. Repeating myself here I know, but here's how it went down with the Model 3.

I was 200K in line.

• 2017 - early 2018, people notified by reservation number
• Late June 2018 - mass email telling everyone they could configure and place order (I could be wrong about the scope of the email)
• We ordered within 45 minutes of that email, given delivery date in October
• Two weeks later (July) they called and asked if we could take delivery at the end of the week (annoying since I hadn't arranged the loan yet, and was in Boston on a business trip). Note that we are 3 hours from Fremont, that could been a factor.
• We got a vin # 32xxx

So, at first they honored the reservations, then just made it a free for all.

I dont remember my place in line but I was out of the country when the reservations opened for the 3 so I reserved online about 2 or 3 days later. I ended up buying my M3 LR RWD in June 2018 thanks to a friend who was an employee with an extra reservation. My reservation came up in July of 2018 so I offered it to friends and family but no one took it so I canceled it.

 

[ÆCIII]

That would be me then. And not sure it's a good thing.

Our Model 3 is vin 32xxx, there are early build issues. Hoping they do better on CT.

I also have concern for build quality in early VINs, but - from what I've seen on Munro's and other channels, the accumulated offset (alignment) errors of stamped assembly parts, was one of the main problems Tesla aimed to solve once and for all by going to the casting methods to make front and rear internal structures.

Since they've shown us that castings are their way going forward and likely with the CT, I'm a little more encouraged or less concerned about that now, but of course there still could be more fit and alignment panel issues since the Exo-Skeleton is new, etc.

I hope they give us more definitive clarification of the trims (dual-motor, tri-motor, quad-motor/plaid, etc.) when they show us the new Cybertruck beta versions next month. If initial production is indeed to start in the summer, I hope they do an Updated Reveal sometime shortly before then.

-ÆCIII

 

[SpaceYooper]

1-Jul​	150.00	50.00
8-Jul​	150.00	200.00
15-Jul​	150.00	350.00
22-Jul​	150.00	500.00
29-Jul​	150.00	650.00
5-Aug​	150.00	800.00
12-Aug​	150.00	950.00
19-Aug​	150.00	1,100.00
26-Aug​	150.00	1,250.00
2-Sep​	150.00	1,400.00
9-Sep​	150.00	1,550.00
16-Sep​	150.00	1,700.00
23-Sep​	150.00	1,850.00
30-Sep​	150.00	2,000.00
7-Oct​	150.00	2,150.00
14-Oct​	150.00	2,300.00
21-Oct​	150.00	2,450.00
28-Oct​	150.00	2,600.00
4-Nov​	150.00	2,750.00
11-Nov​	150.00	2,900.00
18-Nov​	150.00	3,050.00
25-Nov​	150.00	3,200.00
2-Dec​	150.00	3,350.00
9-Dec​	150.00	3,500.00
16-Dec​	150.00	3,650.00
23-Dec​	150.00	3,800.00
		50,050.00

I like it. It's conservative, but I'd point out the last day of summer is Sept 22nd. So production may not start until later in your chart. Also, I am not sure what the timeline is from production to delivery, but I am hopeful that deliveries look something like this.

		Deliveries	Running Total
The week of	3-Sep​	50​	50​
The week of	10-Sep​	200​	250​
The week of	17-Sep​	350​	600​
The week of	24-Sep​	500​	1100​
The week of	1-Oct​	650​	1750​
The week of	8-Oct​	800​	2550​
The week of	15-Oct​	950​	3500​
The week of	22-Oct​	1100​	4600​
The week of	29-Oct​	1250​	5850​
The week of	5-Nov​	1400​	7250​
The week of	12-Nov​	1550​	8800​
The week of	19-Nov​	1700​	10500​
The week of	26-Nov​	1850​	12350​
The week of	3-Dec​	2000​	14350​
The week of	10-Dec​	2150​	16500​
The week of	17-Dec​	2300​	18800​
The week of	24-Dec​	2450​	21250​
The day of	31-Dec​	350​	21600​

For what it's worth, I'm about 90k overall and I think 20k-ish for a CT3 w/FSD. Some people will cancel or delay their purchase, so I'm hoping for a finalization email this summer or fall at a price I'm willing to pay including insurance. But we also have no idea how the rollout priority is going to work. I'm guessing Colorado will be fairly early though.

 

[scottf200]

Another thing to account for. International orders accounted for about 25% of early orders. Those are not getting delivered for at least 2 years after production start.

Curious where 25% came from/based on?

I realize this is crowdsourced ...
https://sites.google.com/view/tesla-reservation-tracker/geographical-distribution

 

[Ogre]

Curious where 25% came from/based on?

I realize this is crowdsourced ...
https://sites.google.com/view/tesla-reservation-tracker/geographical-distribution

Just from recollection so I could be wrong. Maybe it is only 14%? Or it might have been 25% earlier and come down (since order form is closed in most countries now)

 

[greggertruck]

Early reservation. Hoping to get one this year but I reserved a dual motor so unlikely. My res # is 117, Tesla owner in CA. Here's hoping.

#117???? How do you feel about a slightly used beautiful blonde women??????

edit

I should add she's highly supportive of Cybertruck purchasing, and also deeply loyal.

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